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Our election year hotlist is back — a bit unruly in a redistricting year with a lot of contested races on the primary ballots. And you'll notice the tilt toward Republican primaries. That's how the maps were drawn. 

This works like it always has: We lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a garish color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk.

Orange is trouble on the front porch.

Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' are indicated with this: (i). A printable version is attached as a .pdf file.

This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust each week, based on interviews, our reporting, and your feedback through the May 29 primary. Let us know what you think.

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Enlarge Illustration by Todd Wiseman

Candidates for the Railroad Commission are traversing the state, vying to fill the slot that Gov. Rick Perry recently plugged with the appointment of Buddy Garcia, formerly of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, who's not on the ballot, but will serve through the end of the year. And there's also Barry Smitherman's defense of his appointment to that commission. 

But environmentalists are watching many races lower on the ballot. Among them: Rep. Lon Burnam, D-Fort Worth, who has recently been outspoken about the nuclear waste dump being built in West Texas and who faces a serious challenger in Carlos Vasquez; state Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, who faces a fierce challenge from former Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones; and Dr. Donna Campbell of New Braunfels.

• On the policy front, the perpetual question of "resource adequacy" — how to make sure the Texas electric grid has enough juice to keep the lights on in the future — is high on the agenda. The Public Utility Commission is working on two relevant rule-makings. One would raise the cap on wholesale electricity prices from $2,000 a megawatt-hour to $4,500 a megawatt-hour, starting in August. The idea is to funnel more money to power generators, so they have more incentive to build new plants to meet the state's growing electrical demand. Public comments are being accepted now and a hearing, if there is one, would be held May 29. Another proposed rule looks further into the future and would raise the cap higher — to $5,000 per megawatt-hour in June 2013, gradually increasing to $9,000 per megawatt-hour in June 2015. 

Other groups are also studying the same issue. The Gulf Coast Power Association is holding an all-day session on resource adequacy on May 4th at the University of Texas. Donna Nelson, chair of the Public Utility Commission, is among the speakers. On May 8, the Texas Renewable Energy Industries Association will host another forum on grid reliability, which will include a keynote from Rolando Pablos, the newest commissioner at the Texas Public Utility Commission. 

Meanwhile, ERCOT, the grid operator, will publish its "seasonal assessment of resource adequacy" — i.e., its predictions of how the Texas grid will fare this summer, plus an early look at the fall.

• Oil and gas will be focused on the sagebrush lizard: a Senate Natural Resources Committee hearing on April 30 in Odessa will look at the impact of a possible endangered-species listing of the lizard on oil and gas production. Look out for other endangered-species battles ahead, too.

• Another Texas-EPA skirmish could loom. By May 15, the EPA will decide whether to accept a state plan to reduce haze in national parks. The plan was approved in 2009 by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Oklahoma sued the EPA last year after its haze plan got rejected; does the same lie in store for Texas? Other Texas-EPA battles are quiet for now; some are awaiting the court's ruling, which could come at anytime.

• Last but not least: Texas officials are lining up to denounce comments from Al Armendariz, the top official in the EPA's Region 6 (which includes Texas), who likened the way Romans tamed Turkish towns to the way the EPA could carry out enforcement actions. "They'd go into a little Turkish town somewhere, they'd find the first five guys they saw and they'd crucify them," Armendariz said, in a taped video from 2010 that's going viral. The idea, he said, was to hit non-compliant companies hard, to make everyone fall in line. The remarks appeared to particularly focused on oil and gas.

Armendariz has apologized, but on Thursday Gov. Rick Perry tweeted: "Another reason to all-but-eliminate EPA. Armendariz equating EPA philosophy to 'crucifixion' unacceptable & offensive." The TCEQ has also issued a statement, and Texas officials are unlikely to let the issue drop.

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La'Tonya Ephraim speaks with Carrie Adney, a Women's Health Program client since last year, at Seton-Circle of Care Women's Services in Round Rock, TX.

The clock is ticking for reproductive health clinics that are affiliated with abortion providers — the state will force Planned Parenthood and others like them out of the Women’s Health Program between May 1 and May 15. 

In the meantime, the state's Health and Human Services Commission is scrambling to find providers to make up the difference, because Planned Parenthood clinics treated some 40 percent of the women in the program. They’re reaching out to enlist Federally Qualified Health Centers, family practice doctors and even OBGYN medical residency programs, which have a wider geographic distribution. In some cases they’re having to try to re-interpret the language of the new rule — for example, if a medical resident has had training performing abortions, would the entire residency program be disqualified from the program?

One mark in the state’s favor as it seeks to bolster its ranks of providers: Because the program is no longer affiliated with Medicaid — the result of the federal government pulling back its funding — it isn’t tied to paying Medicaid reimbursement rates. If it gets in a bind, the state could try to find the funding to increase the rates, making participation more appealing to providers. (But first they’d have to find the money in the budget.)

In the midst of much hospital handwringing over the funding restructuring and regional health partnerships required under the state’s new Medicaid waiver, the House County Affairs Committee could get an earful at its meeting next Tuesday. 

There are fights over who’s winning and who’s losing: The private hospitals largely believe the financial changes — the result of Texas losing one pot of federal funding because it expanded managed care statewide — have benefited the public hospitals at the expense of the privates. They’ve got roughly three weeks to negotiate possible alternative formulas and find potential solutions.

And some disagreements linger over which regional health centers will agree to partner up to forge the allegiances the so-called “1115 waiver” calls for. “The intensity and gravity that’s facing the state is, you’re asking people to get along who have been competing for the last century,” said Tom Banning, CEO of the Texas Academy of Family Physicians.

• House lawmakers could be reigniting their effort to get small cigarette manufacturers to start paying a state tax paid by their larger competitors. Next week, the Ways and Means Committee will meet to “examine revenue derived from tobacco manufacturers” — including the half a billion dollars large tobacco companies already pay the state every year as part of a 1998 lawsuit settlement. Those big tobacco companies would like to share the burden with small tobacco — and lawmakers would certainly like the money to roll into state coffers. But small cigarette manufacturers have so far successfully resisted those efforts, arguing that they weren’t part of the lawsuit, and shouldn’t be singled out for a tax. Also in play: Many lawmakers have signed pledges against increasing or creating taxes, which could play against those who want to change the tobacco levies.

• The following week, expect two days of intense health care discussions before the Senate Health and Human Services Committee. On May 8, lawmakers will try to find even more “cost-containment measures” — ways to tighten up the state’s health spending and find additional budget-balancing savings — even though it seemed they left no stone unturned last session. They’ll also evaluate how well health care quality initiatives passed in 2011 are working, though it will likely be too soon to tell. On May 9, they’ll address shortcomings in the state’s mental health system and make recommendations for improving access to treatment.

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Gov. Rick Perry ceremonially signs Senate Bill 18, a piece of eminent domain legislation, on May 23, 2011, beside state Sen. Craig Estes, R-Wichita Falls, and Rep. Charlie Geren, R-River Oaks.

Still watching statewides pursuing dreams of higher office? Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson endorsed Republican Tony Dale in the HD-136 open seat race in Williamson County.

• Randy Weber, the Republican state rep from Pearland trying to become a U.S. Rep. from Pearland, picked up an endorsement from Perry. He's one of ten Republicans vying for the nomination in U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's district. Perry also endorsed Sen. Craig Estes, R-Wichita Falls, who's seeking another term.

• Kelly Hancock is on an endorsement streak, getting help from Perry, Attorney General Greg Abbott, Comptroller Susan Combs, Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples and the Texas Alliance for Life PAC. Hancock faces fellow Rep. Todd Smith in the SD-9 primary next month.

• Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, got a boost in his race for congress from labor leader Linda Chavez-Thompson, who likes him in the 11-candidate Democratic primary in CD-33. She's on the Democratic National Committee and lost the race for lieutenant governor two years ago.

• The Arlington Police Association endorsed Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, in her SD-10 reelection bid.

• The newest Republican in the House, J.M. Lozano, picked up an endorsement from the Manufacturers PAC of Texas. They also endorsed Chris Paddie, challenger to Rep. Wayne Christian in HD-9, Marva Beck, R-Centerville, Chuck Hopson, R-Jacksonville, and Rep. Paul Workman, R-Austin.

• Trent Ashby, the Lufkin school trustee challenging Beck in that HD-57 race, got the endorsement of the Texas Parent PAC.

• Paddie got a nod from the Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas, or CLEAT.

• The Texas Alliance for Life PAC endorsed Rep. Jim Pitts' reelection in HD-10, as did the Texas Department of Public Safety Officers Association. DPSOA and CLEAT were among several law enforcement groups that announced their support this week for Rep. Larry Taylor's Senate bid. The Friendswood Republican also got the Texas Municipal Police Association, the Houston Police Officers Union and the Texas State Association of Firefighters.

• TEXPAC, the political arm of the Texas Medical Association, endorsed former Rep. Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie, in the open HD-101 race. So did the Texas State Teachers Association.

• Ron Simmons says he mustered a majority (six) of Carrollton city council members to endorse him in the HD-65 race in Denton County. That's the seat where Burt Solomons, R-Carrollton, decided not to seek another term.

• Trent McKnight picked up the support of the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers PAC in HD-68, where Rick Hardcastle, R-Vernon, decided not to run again. That same PAC endorsed Rep. Lance Gooden, R-Terrell, in HD-4, and Rep. Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, in HD-5. In the statewide race for Texas Railroad Commission, the PAC likes Warren Chisum, R-Pampa.

• Hughes got a little help from above; Sen. Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler, endorsed him.

• Dan Neil, who lost a very close race to Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, in 2010, endorsed her new opponent, Robert Thomas, in this year's HD-48 race.

• The Texas Hospital Association PAC is throwing in with McAllen Democrat Bobby Guerra in HD-41 and with former Rep. Tommy Merritt, who's in a Republican primary rematch with Rep. David Simpson in HD-7. Both candidates are from Longview. That PAC endorsed Reps. Harvey Hilderbran, R-Kerrville, Ralph Sheffield, R-Temple, and Jim Murphy, R-Houston, for reelection.

• Texans for Lawsuit Reform endorsed Reps. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana, in HD-8, and Ralph Sheffield, R-Temple, in HD-55.

• David Barton, president of WallBuilders and a former vice chairman of the state GOP, is hosting a rally for Matt Beebe over the weekend; Beebe is running against House Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio. Straus got an endorsement from a fellow House member, Lyle Larson, who used to be that area's county commissioner.

• Dr. Steve Nguyen, R-Irving, got an endorsement from former pro football player Dat Nguyen in the crowded open seat race in HD-115. 

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Retired Judge Gilberto Hinojosa is running for chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, and talks about the first things he would do if Democrats elect him to that post during their June convention.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/JG8a8w

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This week, we picked up where we left off last week, asking about ten of the hot primary races involving incumbents in the Texas House. There weren't many comments this time, but there's a whole lotta forecasting going on.

The insiders have several incumbents winning contested primaries, including David Simpson, R-Longview; Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton, R-Mauriceville; J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville; Charles "Doc" Anderson, R-Waco; Jim Landtroop, R-Plainview; Barbara Nash, R-Arlington; Borris Miles, D-Houston; and Debbie Riddle, R-Tomball.

And they've got some incumbents on the losing side in their prognostications: Wayne Christian, R-Center; James White, R-Hillister; and Marva Beck, R-Centerville.

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We asked for general comments, and received just a few:

• "Ick."

• "Great opportunity to get rid of these incumbent crazies who are ruining the Republican Party."

• "Wayne Christian is insufferable, but almost impossible to beat. Tuffy will roll big time because SE Texas is still SE Texas."

• "The uncertainty caused by redistricting, a presidential race that is likely to be highly divisive for the country, continuing concerns about the economy, and an overall discontent with elected officeholders will likely lead to some major surprises for the conventional wisdom of the lobby in some of these races."

• "The most conservative will win because Texans are weary of debt and abusive spending."

• "If ifs and buts were beer and nuts we'd have more nuts than beer in this primary."

• "You forgot to include a 'none of the above' option in HD-146. Between Al Edwards and Borris Miles, I'll take an empty chair."

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Our thanks to this week's participants: Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Steve Scurlock, Christopher Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Steve Stagner, Jason Stanford, Keith Strama, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Ellen Williams, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Lee Woods, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli, Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Doc Arnold, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Rick Cofer, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Randy Cubriel, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Alan Erwin, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Sandy Haverlah, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Walt Jordan, Russ Keane, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Matt Matthews, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Bill Pewitt, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Karen Reagan, Tim Reeves, Tara Reilly-Mica, Jeff Rotkoff.

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Friday, April 27:

• Ron Paul town hall meeting at the University of Houston; 7 p.m.

Saturday, April 28:

• Texas Democratic Party's Roast and Toast of Boyd and Bettie Richie; Austin (6 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for HD-26 candidate Vy Nguyen; Missouri City (5 p.m.)

Monday,  April 30:

• Last day to register to vote for the May 29 primary
• Texas Medical Association Workforce Symposium: Where Are All The Doctors Going?; Austin (1 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for Rep. Ralph Sheffield; Belton (6 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for Rep. Dan Huberty; Austin (4:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, May 1:

• House County Affairs meeting (10 a.m.)
• Fundraiser for Rep. Garnet Coleman; Austin (5 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for U.S. House candidate Donna Campbell; Canyon Lake (6:30 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for U.S. House candidate Kenneth Sanders; Fort Worth (6 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for HD-97 candidate Craig Goldman (6 p.m.)
• Town hall meeting with Rep. Vicki Truitt on school finance; Keller (6:30 p.m.)

Wednesday, May 2:

• Jack Abramoff speaking at the University of Texas; Austin (6 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for Sen. José Rodríguez; Austin (4:30 p.m.)

Thursday, May 3:

• Senate Intergovernmental Relations meeting; Denton (10 a.m.)
• Fundraiser for U.S. House candidate K.P. George; Pearland (6:30 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for U.S. House candidate Felicia Harris; Lake Jackson (6 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for U.S. House candidate Donna Campbell; Canyon Lake (6 p.m.)
• Town hall meeting with Rep. Vicki Truitt on school finance; Keller (6:30 p.m.)

A new analysis of official data from Mexico and the U.S. shows net immigration between the two countries to be close to zero. The Pew Hispanic Center reported that in the five years between 2005 and 2010, the net numbers actually showed more Mexicans going back to Mexico from the U.S., the first time that’s happened since the 1930s. Researchers speculated that the weak U.S. economy combined with stronger border enforcement and more deportations were responsible for the reduced numbers.

Following the negative public reaction to the Florida's Stand Your Ground law, an influential policy group that helps draft model bills for legislators has decided to disband a committee that focused on developing policies on crime. Rep. Jerry Madden, R-Plano, chairman of the Public Safety and Elections Committee, said he’ll be reassigned to another committee in the council, and will continue to work on the economic issues surrounding criminal justice.

A planned trial date of July 9 for Texas’ voter ID law may have to be pushed back, according to Justice Department lawyers. In a motion filed this week, the attorneys complained that state Attorney General Greg Abbott’s office is being uncooperative with their requests for information and that the trial will need to be delayed. Abbott’s office is hoping for a speedy trial to ensure resolution of the matter before the general election, and responded that it has been providing information in a timely manner. State officials hope to have a decision on the legality of the law by August so they can implement its provisions by November.

Now that the presidential primary race has cooled down, Texas voters can focus on the race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison. A new poll shows Ted Cruz gaining ground on the front-runner in the race, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. Public Policy Polling’s latest poll in the race shows Dewhurst leading Cruz by 12 percentage points, after leading by 18 points in its January poll.

After an impasse last year over sales tax collection, Amazon is in talks with the comptroller’s office in hopes of reaching a deal. Details of the current negotiations haven’t been made available, but in the past Amazon has offered to create thousands of jobs in Texas with an investment in facilities throughout the state. That deal failed to get legislators' approval when Amazon asked that collection of taxes be abated for several years. Amazon is in the process of working out similar deals in other states.

The Texas Department of Transportation suffered a cyber attack on its toll tag website, causing 1,600 of its customers to be overcharged. The agency reported that as customers were attempting to deposit money into their toll tag accounts, they received error messages, causing them to be charged multiple times. A total of $46,000 was overcharged. TxDOT announced that no action will be necessary for affected customers to receive refunds of the erroneous charges.

Following a successful five-year sustainability program, the city of El Paso is reaching out to local businesses, challenging them to become greener. The initiative provides businesses with a self-assessment scorecard, helping them develop a plan for reducing their energy, water use and waste generation. Part of the plan will be monthly seminars giving the enrolled businesses advice on how to reach the goals they set for themselves. The yearlong program will conclude with the city handing out awards to the most successful companies.

A former BP engineer was the first to be charged in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon explosion. Kurt Mix, of Katy, is facing charges of obstruction of justice after being accused of destroying hundreds of text messages. Federal investigators have been looking into the causes of the blast, but their case against Mix involves information stemming from the aftermath of the explosion and an alleged attempt to interfere with the investigation. Mix’s attorney pointed out that although the text messages had been deleted from his phone, the content of the messages was preserved in other documents, and he expressed confidence that he would be cleared of all charges.

An investigation into expenses paid on behalf of former UT Southwestern Medical Center President Dr. Kern Wildenthal has led to his resignation. An outside firm was hired to analyze the travel and entertainment expenses submitted by Wildenthal and reported that his judgment was questionable in some cases and that the entire expense reporting system should be called into question. After the report was released, Wildenthal tendered his resignation as assistant to the president but will remain on staff at UT Southwestern as a tenured faculty member.

The U.S. Senate confirmed Gregg Costa and David Guaderrama to fill the federal judicial vacancies for the Southern District of Texas in Galveston and Western District of Texas in El Paso, respectively.

Rep. Linda Harper-Brown, R-Irving, was elected president of the Board of Directors of the Texas Conservative Coalition Research Institute. She replaces retiring state Rep. Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, who has served as president of TCCRI since the organization's inception.

U.S. Rep. Gene Green was inaugurated as president of the Texas State Society at the Texas State Society’s Annual Meeting & San Jacinto Day Celebration in D.C.

Diann Bayes will join the Texas Travel Industry Association in the newly formed position of senior vice president of member services. Currently, Bayes holds the position of executive director of the McKinney Convention & Visitors Bureau.

Gary D. Compton has joined Thompson & Knight LLP's Austin office as a member of the firm’s Oil and Gas Practice Group.

The Daughters of the Republic of Texas announced the selection of Melinda Tomerlin Navarro as interim executive administrator for the Alamo. Navarro has served as chairwoman of the Daughters of the Republic of Texas Alamo Committee since last year.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed Nelson Balido of San Antonio and Anne Keene of Austin to the Texas Historical Records Advisory Board. Balido is president of the Border Trade Alliance. Keene is president and founder of the Crossnore Group LLC.