Wait and See

Gov. Rick Perry at the Republican presidential debate at Dartmouth College on Oct. 11, 2011.
Gov. Rick Perry at the Republican presidential debate at Dartmouth College on Oct. 11, 2011.

You know this, if you've thought about it, the same way you know what happens when you watch too closely and interpret too quickly the stock prices in your retirement account.

It goes up, it goes down. It's the trend line that counts, and the governor's is still under construction. He started with a bang, dropped quickly, and now we get to find out whether he can fight back.

Rick Perry could very well be cooked, but it's too early to know for sure. Mitt Romney started as and remains the favorite. He's done this before, from eating corn dogs and talking about the miracle of ethanol to raising money in 50 states. Like George W. Bush, he was raised in a political family and was probably raiding the shrimp bowl at fundraisers when he was eight years old. Perry and a number of the other Not Romneys are new to the race and to a fair amount of the subject matter that will be on the test, like foreign affairs, and the real intricacies of what the federal government does.

Perry has money enough to last into January; if he falls short, it'll be on the merits over time. And he's not yet defined, though he's on his way to it. If he looks like a president after voters have halved the Republican pack and had a good look at what's left, he's got a shot. If not, he'll be out early next year.

Right now, Perry is running third or fourth in most polls, consistently behind Romney and Herman Cain and, depending on the poll, behind either Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich. For what it's worth (something to talk about over coffee and not a lot more), the guy in third place at this point four years ago, according to RealClearPolitics.com, was John McCain.

And while you're sweating out the presidential race — both Perry's friends and his enemies have the sweats, if for different reasons — don't forget about the veepstakes. Presidential candidates sometimes pluck their running mates from the people who opposed them, so long as they showed strength. If it's Romney, a southern Christian might make an appealing dance partner.

Frustrated by Legislature, Schools Go to Court

It's apparently impossible to do anything both legal and constructive to school finance without a judge waving a gavel at the Legislature.

The lawsuits are back for the sixth time in the last 40 years, carrying the issue that dominated Rick Perry's first years as governor: Is the state spending enough money, and distributing it fairly enough, to ensure that every kid in the state has a shot at an adequate public school education?

Legal arguments about school finance drove the search for revenue that ended with the 2006 rewrite of the state's business tax, along with increases and changes in a number of other revenue sources.

During the legislative session earlier this year, lawmakers added $4 billion to an education system that needed considerably more than that to keep up with inflation and enrollment growth. But the lawsuits were probably coming anyway, sooner or later.

The first suit comes from the Texas Taxpayer & Student Fairness Coalition, a growing group of school systems, parents and property taxpayers that started with seven districts and several individuals named in the filing. The opening line: "Before the 82nd Legislature convened in January 2011, Texas' funding for public education had already become an arbitrary hodge-podge of approaches rather than a coherent system." They contend it gave property-rich districts "unconstitutionally greater access to education dollars" and that the problem was compounded by the budgeting during this year's session. The cuts were disproportionately hard on property-poor districts, the suit says.

It's not all in the districts you might expect. Austin ISD and Fort Worth ISDs have the same $1 tax rate in Tier one, the suit says, but Austin has $1,000 more per student. "This difference in funding provides Austin ISD with $100 million per year more than the same tax effort makes available to Fort Worth ISD," the suit says.

This year's cuts put 45 percent of the school districts in Texas in a position where their state funding was cut by more than they're able to raise locally; they can't make up the difference even if their taxpayers are willing. They cite several examples of taxpayers in one district paying higher rates than their peers in other districts, even as their schools get less money per student. And they note that 200 of the state's school districts are taxing at the maximum rate of $1.17 per $1,000 property valuation. Another way of saying it: "...school districts in the top 15% by wealth (154 districts) in 2010-11 have $2,505,875,342 left in taxing capacity, but school districts in the bottom 15% by wealth in 2010-11 have $0 left in taxing capacity."

The poor districts don't have any discretion left, the suit says, leading them to charge that this is an unconstitutional state property tax. They can't charge more than the state limit, and they can't charge less.

This is the first of at least three school finance lawsuits in the works. They've been bubbling since before the current state budget was written, but the cuts in that budget ripened the legal arguments.

Inside Intelligence: School Finance

Our insiders have seen a few school finance lawsuits, so we asked how seriously they're taking this new round. On a scale of 1 to 5, 82 percent gave it either a 4 or a 5. They think it's a real deal.

They're not as united when asked whether the lawsuits will have some impact on the 2012 elections. But a clear majority thinks school finance — independent of the lawsuits — will be an issue in this election cycle in Texas.

Even if the lawsuits don't become an election issue, the insiders think they will certainly have an impact on the 2013 legislative session. Previous school finance lawsuits have forced legislators to make expensive repairs to the system.

As always, we've collected the full set of comments on this week's questions, and include a sampling below:

On a scale of 1-5, where 1 is low and 5 is high, how seriously do you take the school finance lawsuits being filed against the state?

• "The Legislature has never been proactive on health, prison, or education issues. They always are looking for Judicial intervention to give them an excuse to do what they should have done before."

• "This is the way we set policy. The Legislature needs the cover of the court to act. Given the hybrid (read shotgun wedding) style plan adopted during the special, its anyone's ballgame."

• "Equity is not defined in the state's constitution... the grounds of the lawsuit are flawed. Keep the current system, and you move closer to equity."

• "The lawsuit is very serious. Inequities in the distribution of state money (put in place in 2006) coupled with the law's stranglehold on local districts to generate resources will be indefensible by state lawyers."

• "Could result in a Special or modification to the margins tax."

• "By the time this hits the district court over half of Texas schools will be involved. The suit also will include parents, small business owners, and other taxpayers."

• "Historically, don't the schools always win?"

Will state spending on public schools — independent of the lawsuits — become an election issue next year?

• "Not an election issue until the Legislature does something. Look to 2014."

• "Education is, will be, and has been, a "top three" issue in legislative races for the last 20 years and will be for the next 20."

• "School districts out touting how they have been forced to cut their budgets — eliminating positions in all areas outside the classroom. Isn't this what many taxpayers have been asking for?"

• "There are already Republicans running in primaries this year, highlighting their very conservative credentials, but saying the Republican incumbent neglected education"

• "Election issue, yes. Winning election issue, probably not."

Will the school finance lawsuits have any impact on next year's elections?

• "Couple of races, but NO major impact on direction of policy"

• "Nothing will be settled by March. Many legislators won't have an opponent after the primary."

• "It's too early to tell. Most believed there was going to be a parent outcry against politicians, but it has not occurred."

• "The lawsuit itself won't have an impact on next year's election; however, couple voting records and redistricting and you'll see a new freshman class coming in to tackle the mess left behind by the 82nd Session."

• "If it turns into another Robin Hood moment the R's will go crazy."

• "You mean schools claim they are underfunded? Hold on, let me act surprised."

Will the lawsuits have a major impact on the budget written in the 2013 legislative session?

• "School finance always is a prime budget driver, with or without a law suit."

• "Odds are the courts will not complete their work until late or after next session. No legislator will make the hard revenue vote until the judiciary puts a gun to his or her head."

• "At some point, Texas as a whole will have to come to grips that without an educated workforce, our tax dollars will diminish. The less a person makes, the less amount he/she contributes to Texas."

• "The final Supreme Court judgment is not expected before the regular session thus it probably will not impact the appropriations bill. However, it could cause several special sessions like we saw in 2006"

• "They will only have a big impact if the courts have ruled on them by that time. If not, then it is not an emergency, so the legislature will punt"

• "2015"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Brandon Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Mike Barnett, Reggie Bashur, Walt Baum, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Snapper Carr, Tris Castaneda, George Cofer, Rick Cofer, Lawrence Collins, Harold Cook, Hector De Leon, Eva De Luna-Castro, Anne Dunkelberg, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Alan Erwin, Jon Fisher, Terry Frakes, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Daniel Gonzalez, Michael Grimes, Anthony Haley, Bill Hammond, Sandy Haverlah, Albert Hawkins, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Carl Isett, Mark Jones, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Donald Lee, Leslie Lemon, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Luke Marchant, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Scott McCown, Bee Moorhead, Craig Murphy, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Bill Pewitt, Wayne Pierce, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Tim Reeves, Carl Richie, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Stan Schlueter, Julie Shields, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Jason Stanford, Bob Stein, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Tim Tuggey, Wendell Ware, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young.

Ante Up

Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, a candidate for U.S. Senate, at a TribLive event on Sept. 9, 2011.
Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, a candidate for U.S. Senate, at a TribLive event on Sept. 9, 2011.

David Dewhurst raised $2.6 million for his U.S. Senate race — his campaign says that's a record for one quarter this cycle— and kicked in another $2 million of his own money, ending September with "more than $4 million" on in the bank, according to his campaign. He announced well ahead of the deadline, apparently seeking his own spotlight. He got it, too. And he wanted to send a message to announced and potential primary opponents: This is going to be expensive.

The announced list includes former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, former Solicitor General Ted Cruz and Glenn Addison, a funeral home operator. U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, is also considering the race and has a personal fortune to throw at it if he decides to.

Cruz released numbers a couple of days later: He raised almost $1.1 million during the third quarter and ended September with "more than $2.4 million" on hand.

No reports yet from the others.

Campaign Chatter for 10/17

State Rep. Joe Driver, R-Garland, on the House floor.
State Rep. Joe Driver, R-Garland, on the House floor.

Rep. Joe Driver, R-Garland, won't seek another term in the House. If you're keeping score, he's the 21st incumbent to volunteer for civilian life after 2012. Driver still faces legal issues from double-billing his campaign and the state for travel expenses — a problem that came to light in his 2010 reelection bid. And he would face a primary opponent if he stuck around; the new redistricting maps pair him with freshman Rep. Cindy Burkett, R-Mesquite.

John Raney picked up the Texas Retailers Association PAC endorsement in the special election to replace Rep. Fred Brown, R-Bryan, in HD-14. Brown quit this summer and the election to replace him is set for next month. Raney, a Republican, is also a former retailer, having founded and operated the Texas Aggieland Bookstore. Rebecca Boenigk countered with a list of former mayors of Bryan and College Station who've endorsed her candidacy. They're in a pack of candidates that also includes Republican Bob Yancy, Democrat Judy Webb LeUnes and Libertarian Joshua Baker.

Rep. Mark Shelton, R-Fort Worth, is officially running for the Texas Senate, taking on fellow Republican lawmaker Kelly Hancock of North Richland Hills. The winner will face Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, in the general election in an HD-10 that was redrawn to favor a Republican. A funny bit of towel-snapping: Hancock earlier announced his endorsement by former Fort Worth Mayor Bob Bolen from Shelton's turf; Shelton's list of supporters includes North Richland Hills Mayor Oscar Trevino. Shelton, a pediatrician, has some other big names on his side, including U.S. Rep. Kay Granger (who's also a former Fort Worth mayor) and Arlington Mayor Bob Cluck.

KP George is plotting a challenge to U.S. Rep. Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land. He's a Democrat, a financial planner, and a naturalized citizen born in India. He'll announce soon, aides say.

Former Balch Springs Mayor Cedric Davis, a Democrat, is jumping into a Texas House race in HD-110, the seat now held by Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway, D-Dallas. The incumbent plans to give up her seat to challenge U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas.

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, now running for Congress, raised $787,387 in the third quarter and says he's got almost $1.6 million on hand.

Texans for Fiscal Responsibility will back Rep. Ken Paxton, R-McKinney, in the race for Florence Shapiro's Senate seat in Collin County. The group promoted his run for speaker of the House against Joe Straus at the beginning of the year and in the months leading up to that vote. Shapiro is retiring.

Seeking reelection: Rep. Barbara Nash, R-Arlington.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

A surprise inspection of the jails in Houston has precipitated a new crisis for Harris County. Inspectors from the Texas Commission on Jail Standards found severe overcrowding in holding cells and a lack of jailers to supervise them. The county has found itself struggling to fill the gap since a hiring freeze was instituted in March and has increasingly relied on paying overtime to remaining staff. But now that citations have been issued, the county has 30 days to submit a plan to fix the problem or face state sanctions.

Rain should be in the weather category, but in Texas this year, it’s news. Texas saw its first significant rainfall in the midst of the worst one-year drought on record. Some areas of the state received more than five inches and faced flooding issues. But the totals weren’t nearly enough to make up for the rain that hasn’t fallen throughout the year, and most of Texas remains in the category of “exceptional drought.”

Asked to comment on the newly reinstated shoot-to-kill policy regarding burros in Big Bend State Park, Gov. Rick Perry declared his support for the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. The department posted a fact sheet on its website in support of the re-instituted policy, which has resulted in the shooting of about 50 burros since last year. But an online petition has been circulated by critics, who claim the policy is meant to satisfy wealthy hunters.

A job-training program in San Antonio designed to help low-income students gain skills has come under fire from a state official. Tom Pauken, chairman of the Texas Workforce Commission, criticized a federal grant to the city-funded program Project Quest and called the organization an activist organization. Officials at the program cited their results as proof of the program's success, with 90 percent of the graduates of their program going on to find jobs averaging an annual salary of $38,000. But Pauken said the program, which was reported to be over $700,000 in debt this summer, is ineffective and only serves partisan aims.

A budget-cutting idea for the state prison system is proving popular with some inmates. Foreign citizens are eligible for release from Texas prisons — with the caveat that they be deported. An estimated 11,500 prisoners are among the state’s 154,000 prisoners, and if they were all sent home, the state could save more than $200 million. As convicts rush to plead their cases, state parole board officials say they haven’t had a chance to establish standards or procedures for the new program.

Galveston County will have to wait a little longer to get a $3 million settlement from the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association. The settlement was negotiated by state Rep. Craig Eiland’s law firm and would have netted the county $3.065 million to settle its Hurricane Ike-related claims. But two county commissioners’ objections to Eiland’s involvement in the case have delayed Galveston’s ability to lay claim to the money. The commissioners object to Eiland’s fee of $1.885 million, claiming that his roles as state representative and member of the state insurance committee give him an unfair advantage in charging for his services. Other commission members didn’t see it that way, saying that the time for negotiation was before the contract with Eiland was signed.

Claiming that the current funding system is unfair, a coalition of school districts, parents and taxpayers has sued the state. The Texas Taxpayer and Student Fairness Coalition is expected to be the first of several groups to file suit against the state after the Legislature failed to address school funding formulas in the spring session and slashed more than $4 billion from public education. Over the last 40 years, the state has been sued six times over such inequities, and the current system has been decried as a patchwork solution cobbled together as a result of previous lawsuits and tax restructuring. More groups are expected to join in the legal action.

After oceanographer John Anderson and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality were unable to come to an agreement concerning an article he had written, the two sides agreed that the article would not be published. The TCEQ had contracted for a series of 10 articles on the state of Galveston Bay, but when Anderson’s report made reference to man-made climate changes and rising sea levels, the agency wanted him to change it.  Anderson accused the TCEQ of politicizing the issue and not representing scientific opinion and review. When he refused to make the requested changes, the agency opted to delete the article. Anderson agreed with that decision, saying he’d rather not see it published with the deletions requested by the agency.

Political People and their Moves

Gov. Rick Perry appointed Ted Houghton, owner of Houghton Financial Partners of El Paso, to be the new chairman of the Texas Transportation Commission, replacing Deirdre Delisi, who went to work on the presidential campaign.

J.P. Urrabazo joined Longbow Partners, an Austin-based lobby firm. He headed state relations for CenterPoint Energy and before that worked for Sen. Mario Gallegos, D-Houston.

Lawyer and lobster Royce Poinsett is joining the government relations group at Baker Botts. He was most recently at McGinnis Lochridge & Kilgore and worked for former Speaker Tom Craddick and for Gov. Rick Perry before that.

Eagle Pass Mayor Ramsey Cantu is the new chairman of the Texas Border Coalition, and the next in line — the chairman-elect — is McAllen Mayor Richard Cortez.

Quotes of the Week

The other Republicans have sucked so bad we didn’t have any choice.

A top ally of President Barack Obama's to Politico on the decision to start attacking Mitt Romney, whom the campaign reportedly believes will win the Republican nomination

The reason that we fought the Revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown, if you will.

Gov. Rick Perry, after Tuesday night's debate

We are being brutalized by our opponents, and our own party. So much of that is, I think, they look at him because of his faith. He is the only true conservative.

Anita Perry, campaigning for her husband in South Carolina, on MSNBC

We've created the obligation, but we haven't written the check. So when we come back, that scary budget is going to be there.

Rep. Drew Darby, R-San Angelo, on the budget hole facing lawmakers in 2013, in the San Angelo Standard-Times

It's not equitable. It's not fair. It's just crazy.

Rick Gray, attorney for the Texas Taxpayer & Student Fairness Coalition, which sued the state over school finance this week, in the San Antonio Express-News