An Inside Game, Already Afoot

State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, speaks to an aide on the Senate floor on May 16, 2011.
State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, speaks to an aide on the Senate floor on May 16, 2011.

The political armies in Texas are assembling for a battle more than a year away.

The possibility of five or more new Republican senators in 2013 opens a tactical door for conservatives who'd like to gain control of the Legislature.

The House and Senate are already overwhelmingly Republican, but Texas is effectively a one-party state. This isn't about Republicans and Democrats — it's about Republicans and Republicans.

The State Republican Executive Committee, egged on by Houston Sen. Dan Patrick and others, passed a resolution last weekend saying the GOP Caucus in the Senate ought to pick the next lieutenant governor. That's an if-if deal. If Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst wins the U.S. Senate seat he's after or if Gov. Rick Perry moves on and Dewhurst moves up, or both, the Senate picks their successors.

The question is, which Senate? The one that's in office right now, including departing members like Chris Harris, Mike Jackson, Steve Ogden, and Florence Shapiro? Or the one that takes office in January 2013, with their replacements and possibly others? If the lines aren't redrawn, Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, has a difficult reelection bid in front of her. And there could be other senators wearing parachutes, opting against reelection.

The timing question could determine the outcome. Federal lawmakers are sworn in before state lawmakers. Dewhurst, becoming a U.S. Senator, would probably resign his state office before the new senators here have taken the oath. The current Senate would assemble — just as they did when George W. Bush moved up — to hold an election.

That winner would become lieutenant governor, and if Perry moved on, governor. A second Senate vote would select the new lieutenant governor.

It would make for a weirdest holiday season since 2000.

Patrick is counting noses among the Republicans, talking about electing a Dewhurst replacement without input from the Democrats. Now he's got the SREC on his side, and third-party groups — the folks who made the race for House speaker so interesting last December and January — are prodding their email lists in the same direction.

It's like a South American deal, without the bullets. If you want to take over the Texas government, elect a handful of Republicans — just a handful, but they've got to be Republicans — who come closest to sharing your views. If you're on the conservative side, get people who'll elect a conservative from within the GOP caucus and then will enforce that caucus choice when the vote goes to the full Senate.

Or go the other way: Vote for Republicans who can, with some of the Democrats, form a bipartisan coalition. It takes 16 votes to win in the full Senate, and just 11 to win in the Caucus.

And maybe they'll get lucky: If Perry and Dewhurst both win tickets to Washington, the schemers in the Senate could elect both of their replacements.

The opposition couldn't beat House Speaker Joe Straus at the beginning of the legislative session early this year, and he has fortified his position. But they learned something about how it's done. One chore is to elect the voters they want. That's just ahead, in the party primaries in March. Another is to rig the rules to make sure they've got a winning majority if and when the opportunity appears.

That's more than a year away, but they're already working on the foundation.

 

Drawing Contingency Maps

The federal redistricting panel in San Antonio is sharpening its crayons and asking the pack of lawyers in that case to make suggestions about corrective maps.

It's a timing thing: The federal court in Washington — that's the one that has to preclear the maps under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act — isn't holding hearings until next month.

The San Antonio panel held its hearings last month but hasn't ruled. But on the off chance that the DC court doesn't get its work done in time for the elections, the Texas court asked lawyers to submit suggestions for an interim map. The idea is that the Texas court could order elections to be held on a temporary map and the courts could then kick out a permanent map later.

The screwiest version of this was in the 1990s. A court-drawn map was put in place for the 1992 elections. The Legislature came back in a special session to try to draw its own map, but there wasn't time to get preclearance. A mess of senators lost election in 1992, and then the legislative map got approved for the 1994 elections. It took three more years to comb out that hairball — almost until it was time to redistrict all over again.

It's also entirely possible that the courts will get everything done in the nick of time, and lawmakers will go on the ballots with maps that have more than a temporary blessing from the federal courts. The House and Senate maps used in 1992 came out of a Christmas Eve ruling by the federal courts. Ten years later, the courts approved congressional plans on November 14 and House plans on November 28.

Late is the norm. One complication this year is that filing deadlines were moved up to comply with new federal laws. Unless the court temporarily waives the new deadline (not unusual), candidates have to file for office by December 12.

Campaign Chatter

John Raney won the endorsement of the Texas chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business in the special election in HD-14. Fellow Republican Rebecca Boenigk, meanwhile, got the endorsements of the Texas Association of Builders and the Texas Restaurant Association. They are among five candidates in that race, which includes one more Republican, a Democrat and a Libertarian. That's the race to finish out Rep. Fred Brown's term in the Texas House. The Bryan Republican resigned earlier this summer to pursue a new job. Election Day is November 8; early voting starts on October 24.

Rep. Mark Shelton, R-Fort Worth, says he'll run for the Texas Senate spot occupied right now by Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth. It's been redrawn as a Republican seat, though Davis is fighting that in court and says she'll run whether she wins the court fight or not. Shelton won't be alone in that primary, but says he's got an advantage running as the Fort Worth candidate. Rep. Kelly Hancock brought weapons, too. The Republican from North Richland Hills scored an endorsement from former Fort Worth Mayor Bob Bolen. And Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, headlined a fundraiser for him this week.

Rep. Chente Quintanilla, D-Tornillo, told the El Paso Times he's dropping out of the House to run for the El Paso County Commissioner's Court. He's been thinking openly about that, and Hector Enriquez has been thinking about running for his House seat.

Add former Rep. Toby Goodman, R-Arlington, to the "maybe" roster in SD-9, where Chris Harris has decided to retire. Harris wants Victor Vandergriff to run and Vandergriff says he's looking. Goodman, who was city attorney when Tom Vandergriff was mayor of Arlington, says he's doing some polling to see what's what and will make a decision by mid-month. He and Victor apparently haven't talked yet. Rep. Rodney Anderson, R-Grand Prairie, is the only declared candidate — he was running against Harris until Harris dropped out. Anderson picked up endorsements from three members of Grand Prairie's city council and from Irving's mayor and mayor pro-tem.

Austin attorney Keith Hampton changed races — he'll run for presiding judge of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals. He had announced for another seat on that court out of deference to another candidate, but that candidate — TCCA Judge Lawrence Meyers — apparently won't run for the top spot. Hampton, a Democrat, will be taking on incumbent Republican Sharon Keller.

Dr. Donna Campbell moved to New Braunfels and says she'll run against Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio. She previously ran against U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin. She was from Columbus then — well outside of Wentworth's district.

Bracy Wilson, a McKinney Republican, is off and running in HD-70 — the district now represented by Ken Paxton, R-McKinney. Paxton is running for the Senate, freeing the seat. Wilson was a minister for 19 years and now helps start charter schools.

Trent Ashby, president of the Lufkin school board, will run against Rep. Marva Beck, R-Centerville, in HD-57. That's uphill: She's a freshman, but she got into office with heavy backing from Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

That group endorsed Rep. Wayne Christian, R-Center, in an HD-9 GOP primary with Marshall Mayor Chris Paddie. And they'll back Rep. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, in his reelection bid. He's alone in that race, for now, but former Rep. Delwin Jones, who lost the GOP primary runoff to Perry in 2010, has been checking around for a possible rematch.

Rep. Rob Eissler, R-The Woodlands, has drawn a GOP primary challenger: Steve Toth, owner of a local pool company and a leader in the Texas Tea Party Patriots PAC.

Ryan Downton, who worked as clerk of the House Redistricting Committee, apparently likes the maps: He'll run against Rep. Paul Workman, R-Austin, in the GOP primary, and accuses the incumbent of being too liberal for the district.

Mac Smith will run for Warren Chisum's open seat in the Panhandle. Chisum, R-Pampa, is running for the Texas Railroad Commission. Smith, a lawyer who's also from Pampa, says he'd continue on with what Chisum has been doing.

Rep. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, got Bryan Mayor Jason Bienski's endorsement for his Senate bid. That's geographically significant: Schwertner is trying to win Steve Ogden's seat, which would move the district's senator from Bryan to Georgetown. Schwertner, a surgeon, also picked up the endorsment of the Texas Medical Association's PAC.

That group also endorsed Greg Bonnen, who's running in HD-24. Bonnen's a doctor, too, and also the brother of Rep. Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton.

Gone, Baby, Gone

Tourists enter the empty Senate chamber Wednesday morning as the Texas Senate adjourned sine die the day before, leaving the House with unfinished business on June 29, 2011.
Tourists enter the empty Senate chamber Wednesday morning as the Texas Senate adjourned sine die the day before, leaving the House with unfinished business on June 29, 2011.

Keeping track?

In the Texas House, 20 members apparently aren't seeking reelection (they've still got time to switch gears), a list that includes Warren Chisum, R-Pampa; Rick Hardcastle, R-Vernon; Lanham Lyne, R-Wichita Falls; Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood; Ken Paxton, R-McKinney; Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown; Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills; Charlie Howard, R-Sugar Land; Fred Brown, R-Bryan; Randy Weber, R-Pearland; Beverly Woolley, R-Houston; Mark Shelton, R-Fort Worth; Jim Jackson, R-Carrollton; Will Hartnett, R-Dallas; Rodney Anderson, R-Grand Prairie; Jose Aliseda, R-Beeville; Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio; Pete Gallego, D-Alpine; Chente Quintanilla, D-Tornillo; and Barbara Mallory-Caraway, D-Dallas.

Four senators are opting out so far: Florence Shapiro, R-Plano; Mike Jackson, R-La Porte; Steve Ogden, R-Bryan; and Chris Harris, R-Arlington.

And just one member of the Texas congressional delegation has said he won't seek another term: Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson.

 

Inside Intelligence: Bad News, Good News

It's been a noisy week for Rick Perry, the presidential candidate, so we asked the insiders whether any of what they've heard and read over the last few days will stick. Will the stories have legs? Is the good news good enough to last? The bad news?

The Washington Post story about a hunting camp with a racially offensive name made the biggest splash after hitting the Internet last weekend, but only two of five insiders think that story will linger.

It buried a story published just a few hours earlier, and the insiders think that one will float back up: Perry told a New Hampshire audience that the U.S. should send the military into Mexico to help that country fight its drug cartels; 55 percent of the insiders say you'll hear about that again.

About that many expect to hear more about weekend stories about the state's slow delivery of aid to some of the families afflicted by hurricanes that hit Texas three years ago, and about ties between former Perry staffers and a company hired by the state to help with hurricane relief.

The governor followed all of that news with news of his own: He raised $17 million in less than two months for his campaign. That's stout, and some insiders think it overshadows the bad headlines that came earlier. Over half — 55 percent — say the financial success will linger as the campaigns go forward.

As always, we've attached a full set of verbatim comments; a sampling follows.

The Washington Post wrote about a hunting camp with a racially offensive name that was rented by the Perry family for years. Is that a story line that will linger through the campaign or one that will fade soon?

• "The story really doesn't have legs."

• "Story was thin. Even Perry's detractors say he's never been a racist"

• "It should fade, but remember, John McCain had an African-American love child when South Carolina rolled around and Bush stomped him there and went on to be POTUS."

• "National campaigns are often defined by small slips that become iconic... Dukakis in a tank, GHWB checking his watch mid-debate, Kerry voting for it before voting against it. As soon as a photo surfaces, it will revive the story."

• "Cheap shot"

• "Nice controversy of the week, but let's give the electorate more credit. Economy and jobs are what people care about most right now."

• "Tagging Southern conservatives as racists confirms a bias that most of the country holds. And as Kinky showed, you can't get rid of it by insisting that you're not a racist."

The governor said the U.S. should send troops to Mexico to help that country fight its drug cartels. Is that a story line that will linger through the campaign or one that will fade soon?

• "It's a good idea."

• "It's a dumb quote. Typically dumb quotes tend to stay in circulation and be used against you. The prosecutors don't quick asking witnesses tough questions about the best evidence they have, do they?"

• "He began equivocating too fast on the idea for it to have any staying power. One of the few issues that he's right about."

• "Down the line, this could be an issue. It is potentially damaging in showing a lack of understanding of how foreign policy works. Sending troops into Mexico would cause an international crisis, which is why it won't happen. The fact that he doesn't seem to understand that raises questions about his ability to handle a major part of the job of being president."

• "Border violence and lawlessness in Mexico are growing concerns, but most Americans don't view Mexico as an 'enemy threat' and are weary of sustained military commitments."

The New York Times and the Austin American-Statesman reported on the state's slow response to hurricane relief and to ties between former Perry staffers and a company hired to help with that relief. Is that a story line that will linger through the campaign or one that will fade soon?

• "I think it will lead to more digging by the national media into Perry's financial dealings with contributors and former staffers."

• "Part of the crony capitalism charge that will be used as long as he's in the race"

• "Part of a larger Pay-to-Play storyline that will linger... and will grow. It didn't get the initial traction out of the box that it will get once political opponents pick it up and the reporters begin to dissect the story and the relationships even further."

• "How many times has Perry been elected? How many stories like these have there been? Has anyone beyond a newspaper newsroom EVER cared?"

• "Perry's underlying problem now is his third world governing style.... in which those around him get very wealthy. The hurricane relief story is part of that mosaic."

The governor raised $17 million in his first fundraising quarter, far more than most of his opponents, displaying his relative strength against rest the GOP field. Is that a story line that will linger through the campaign or one that will fade soon?

• "1st quarter, Rick Perry. Talk to me at New Year's. If he sustains, then we have a drumbeat. If he fades, he's Rudy G 2.0."

• "He is a contender, again."

• "Money means nothing when you have a floundering, mistake-ridden campaign. He raised the money before the rest of the country knew anything about him."

• "It has staying power insofar as money tends to breed money in that game. It certainly enhances his credibility among those who will ultimately be paying the freight in this race."

• "The ability to raise cash is the bell weather of campaigns. If he keeps generating those type of numbers, that signals he is still a contender - despite media misgivings."

• "Perry will have plenty of money to run a campaign, but Phil Gramm had plenty of money too."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Reggie Bashur, Walt Baum, Leland Beatty, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Terri Burke, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Snapper Carr, Tris Castaneda, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, George Cofer, John Colyandro, Hector De Leon, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, Scott Dunaway, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Alan Erwin, Gay Erwin, Jon Fisher, Terry Frakes, Kyle Frazier, Neftali Garcia, Bruce Gibson, Scott Gilmore, Daniel Gonzalez, Thomas Graham, Michael Grimes, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Albert Hawkins, Jim Henson, Deborah Ingersoll, Carl Isett, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, J. McCartt, Dan McClung, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Sylvia Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Wayne Pierce, John Pitts, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Bill Ratliff, Tim Reeves, Carl Richie, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Bradford Shields, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Leslie Sullivan, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Christopher Williston, Seth Winick, Lee Woods, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Residents of Bastrop, still regrouping from last month’s devastating wildfires, saw fresh smoke on the horizon this week. Another wildfire erupted in Bastrop County, burning through thousands of acres of brush. Firefighters were more prepared to handle the fast-moving fire, though, as resources weren’t stretched as thin as before. Aircraft used to fight fires were immediately dispatched, and the fire was contained at a faster rate than during the September fire. Although evacuations were recommended, no homes were reported damaged.

State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon has bad news for his drought-stricken state: Prepare for more. Suggesting this week that conditions are favorable for a continuation of drought conditions, Nielsen-Gammon was quick to point out that weather patterns can be tricky to predict. Past patterns have led experts to believe that the current drought, the worst in the state’s history, could last at least another year due to the La Niña effect.

Waxahachie saw plumes of smoke this week, too, as a fire sparked by mixed chemicals ignited a blaze that shot clouds of smoke and orange flames into the city’s sky, about 30 miles south of Dallas. Schools and residents were advised to evacuate or remain indoors to avoid any harmful fumes released by the undisclosed chemicals. The fire was quickly brought under control and was reported to be 95 percent contained by Monday evening.

It remains uncertain whether Texas’ new voter ID law will be approved by the Justice Department, as it has allowed a review prescribed by the federal Voting Rights Act. The state has been asked to provide supporting information that would allow the DOJ to determine whether the law disenfranchises minority groups. Information that was requested wasn’t readily available because the state of Texas doesn’t collect racial information when it registers voters. Texas’ Secretary of State responded by submitting census information and detailing Hispanic surnames and providing a spreadsheet with information on which voters provided identification when they registered to vote. It was unclear if the matter will be resolved before the law takes effect on Jan. 1.

The U.S. Supreme Court threw out a case concerning electronic voting machines in Dallas County. The so-called iVotronic machines came under fire for their potential to rescind votes for specific candidates on a straight-party vote. Dallas County had been sued by the Texas Democratic Party. Federal courts in Texas took exception to the straight-line voting change and asked for it to be explicitly approved by the Justice Department. Because the Justice Department has approved the machines, the high court dismissed the appeal as moot.

Not only is the potential recall of El Paso’s mayor and two council members dividing public opinion, but it could cost taxpayers. Because another election is already on the books for May, the county will have to lease and program additional voting machines at an estimated cost of $300,000. Election officials say there’s not enough time in between the two scheduled election dates to reprogram the machines. The elections can’t be combined because state law prohibits a municipal and primary election from being held at the same time.

The Harris County District Attorney’s office was accused of retaliating against a former Houston Police Department crime lab supervisor because of testimony she gave that reflected poorly on the department’s work. Amanda Culbertson now works for Lone Star College, which provides breath alcohol testing services for the Sheriff’s Office. That contract recently expired and is subject to cancellation as Harris County commissioners are being asked to instead use the Texas Department of Public Safety. The DA’s office insisted that its only interest is in improving services and reducing costs. Estimated cost savings by using DPS: $12,000 the first year.

Occupy Wall Street has come to a city near you. Groups in Texas’ biggest cities have begun rallying in support of the anti-Wall Street rally that started in New York City. The group Occupy Austin has established a Facebook page, and police are preparing for thousands of protesters to turn out at City Hall.

Political People and their Moves

Put Denise Davis and Lisa Kaufman on the short-timers list. The two top-level aides to House Speaker Joe Straus both plan to leave by the end of the year. Both have been with Straus since shortly after he was elected speaker in January 2009. Davis, a former parliamentarian who also worked in private practice as a lawyer, is his chief of staff; Kaufman, who worked for Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock, and for the Texas Civil Justice League before joining the speaker, is special counsel.

Texas Transportation Commissioner Deirdre Delisi submitted her resignation to Gov. Rick Perry on Thursday. Delisi, a close adviser and former chief of staff to Perry, is currently serving as a policy and strategy director on his presidential campaign. She had said she'd leave when the agency hired a new executive director, and the board voted last week to hire Phil Wilson, another former Perry employee.

Marina Garcia Marmolejo, appointed to a federal judgeship in the Southern District of Texas, won unanimous confirmation from the U.S. Senate. She's a former federal prosecutor who has been in private practice since 2007.

Gov. Rick Perry's appointments this week include:

John Steen III of Houston to the Texas Racing Commission. Steen is director of commercial development for Lone Star NGL LLC.

Connie Ware of Marshall to the Stephen F. Austin State University Board of Regents. Ware is president and CEO of the Marshall Chamber of Commerce, and vice president of Ware Machine and Supply Inc.

Scott Tidwell will spend four months in jail. Tidwell, the Winkler County Attorney, was found guilty of using his position to retaliate against two nurses who complained to the Texas Medical Board about a local doctor. He was also ordered to pay $6,000 in fines. A related case cost Sheriff Robert Roberts his job earlier this year.

Quotes of the Week

Too often the brightest stars are comets. But they flame out the fastest because they consume themselves on their own energy. I think there are some lessons to be learned there in life and in politics. How quickly and how brightly we burn.

U.S. Trade Rep. and former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, on Rick Perry's presidential bid

Mr. Speaker, ‘nigger’ is offensive. It’s offensive. And I think that I’m expressing the moral outrage of all Americans.

U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., introducing an unsuccessful resolution to condemn Gov. Rick Perry for the racially charged name of a hunting camp rented by the Perry family, as reported by Politico

President Obama appears to be the only person left with any confidence in Attorney General Holder. It is difficult to believe that after memos were sent to his office, ATF officials briefed Congress on Fast and Furious and it was reported in the media, Mr. Holder still didn’t have knowledge of it, as he claims, for several months.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a statement on U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and his alleged knowledge of the infamous gun-running scandal known as "Fast and Furious"

It takes a lot of leadership in the Legislature to solve a problem of inequity without being forced to by the courts, because almost every district is richer than some other district.

State Rep. Scott Hochberg, D-Houston, on school finance lawsuits

He’s a middle-of-the-road guy, and even though it doesn’t make the conservatives 100 percent happy, he’s capable of making them 75 percent happy, and he’s capable of getting 51 percent against President Obama — which is a lot better than making the conservatives happy and getting 47 percent of the vote.

John Catsimatidis, a major New York donor, on Mitt Romney, quoted in Politico