Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

Sen. Florence Shapiro (l), R-Plano, visits with Health & Human Services Committee chairman Sen. Jane Nelson on May 3, 2011.

Partisan changes in the Legislature are on ice for now. The more important game to watch is for which kinds of Republicans and Democrats are coming to Austin every two years.

It's not as easy to measure. You can look at voting stats, like our Texas Weekly Index, or Dana Chiodo's numbers, or the indexes put together by the political parties, and get a pretty good feel for whether a particular district is going to elect a Democrat or a Republican to the House, to the Senate, or to Congress.

It's harder to chart what have become the most important changes. If the new redistricting maps hold, Republicans will maintain roughly a two-to-one advantage over Democrats in legislative jobs. The parties have drawn their maps to keep as many districts as possible from being competitive in general elections. That moves any fights to the primaries, and probably means the most Democratic of the Democrats and the most Republican of the Republicans will be winning elections for the next decade.

It's reasonable to assume that the Republican contingent in the Legislature and in the congressional delegation will be in the majority, and that the contingent will become more and more conservative.

Take a look at the Texas Senate and a possible scenario that replaces three or four Republicans and a Democrat with four or five Republicans.

Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, is fighting to revise the maps in Tarrant County. If she's not successful, she faces reelection in a district that has more Republican voters than Democrats. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, is running for Congress. Republicans Florence Shapiro of Plano and Steve Ogden of Bryan say they won't seek reelection next year (stories here and here).

The only declared challenger to Davis is Rep. Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills. Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood, the head of the House Republican Caucus, is running to replace Jackson. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, is running for Ogden's spot. Ken Paxton, R-McKinney, who fell short in a challenge to House Speaker Joe Straus earlier this year, is running for Shapiro's seat against Scott O'Grady, a former fighter pilot to came to fame when he was shot down over Bosnia and rescued days later by the Marines.

Just for conversation, throw the race between Sen. Chris Harris, R-Arlington, and Rep. Rodney Anderson, R-Grand Prairie, into the mix.

If they survive the elections, those five new members could move the Senate's Republican Caucus a notch or two or three to the right. It could impact any number of issues, starting with the race to replace Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst with a senator, should he move up to the U.S. Senate or to the governor's office.

Some Republicans, both inside and outside the Senate, want the GOP caucus to choose the next Lite Guv without consulting the Senate's Democrats. The five state reps peeking through the Senate fence would, as a group, be more conservative than the gang they hope to replace. On top of that, they'd be freshmen who aren't steeped in the folk lore and traditions of the Senate. They're from the House. There are partisan fights in both chambers; the difference is that senators say they feel bad about it. The Housies, whose boot camp consisted of a long series of brutal political fights for the speakership, would actually come into the Senate with more experience at a rumble over who ought to be in charge.

Shapiro came to the Senate in 1993, knocking off Sen. Ted Lyon, D-Mesquite, after redistricting left him with a Republican district and a Plano mayor who wanted his job. Ogden got to the House two years earlier and came to the Senate in 1997. Their hair is gray — his is actually white — and they are two of the state's most accomplished legislators, having chaired important committees, won and lost big and important fights. Jackson came to the Legislature in 1989. Poof — there goes six decades of experience. More to the point, if you're on the side of those who want to change some of the Senate's traditions and rules, it opens an opportunity.

Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera

State Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, looks at redistricting maps at a Senate hearing on May 13, 2011.

The Justice Department didn't find fault (put an asterisk here) with the Senate and State Board of Education redistricting maps from Texas, but told a federal court in Washington, DC, that it thinks the maps for the congressional delegation and for the Texas House go backwards in minority representation.

The asterisk is this: DOJ didn't say it approves of the maps or thinks they're legal. It means those two maps don't set off alarms for retrogression — the term for a map that cuts into minority voters' ability to elect the candidates they want to elect.

The DC court will decide whether the Texas maps meet that standard in the federal Voting Rights Act. In fact, they decided late Thursday to pre-clear the SBOE map, saying that it doesn't trip the Section 5 provisions and should be allowed to take effect immediately.

The DC court also told the lawyers to turn in lists by the end of the week naming the House and congressional districts that allegedly violate the law. Here's a troublesome note, if you're a candidate who wants to get this wrapped up in a hurry: Among the various deadlines set out by that court is an Oct. 31 date by which the state has to file its responses. That likely means a November trial. Candidate filing starts on Nov. 12. When that sort of thing happens in a newsroom, everybody knows there's a blown deadline ahead.

Meanwhile, the San Antonio federal judges who finished their hearing last week will decide on other issues, such as whether the new maps reflect — in political terms — the growth in the state's minority population. Just over 10 percent of the state's growth over the last decade is attributable to Anglos; the rest was due to growth in the Hispanic and Black populations in Texas. Several of the groups suing to overturn the maps say those groups should have better representation.

There's a new lawsuit to that effect, filed by a group that includes Sen. Wendy Davis and Rep. Marc Veasey, both Democrats from Fort Worth, who say the new maps don't fairly represent minorities in Tarrant and Dallas counties. They contend that it violates both the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. That will go into the San Antonio pile of lawsuits.

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

State Sen. Steve Ogden (r) chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, visits in the House chamber with State Rep. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, while he waits to visit with State Rep. Jim Pitts on May 18, 2011.

Rep. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, will run for Steve Ogden's Senate seat. Ogden isn't running, and Williamson County has become the 300-pound gorilla of that district in terms of population. Rep. Larry Gonzales, R-Round Rock, won't run, in part because of the travel distances and time and the kids he's got at home, he says.

Former fighter pilot Scott O'Grady pounced first in the race to success Florence Shapiro, R-Plano. Next came Rep. Ken Paxton, R-McKinney, who starts with a long list of supporters and with $711,737 in his political accounts at mid-year. That list of supporters has more than 850 names on it.

Marsha Farney, a Georgetown Republican who is now on the State Board of Education, will run for the HD-20 seat Schwertner is giving up. She's been in office for less than a year, having won her seat in the November 2010 election.

Jay Old, a Republican attorney from Beaumont, will run for Ron Paul's congressional seat next year. State Rep. Randy Weber, R-Pearland, is in that CD-14 race, too.

Pearland Mayor Ed Thompson is slip-streaming Weber, saying he'll run for the HD-29 district Weber now represents. He officiates football games, which might be an interesting talent in the House, if he makes it.

Sugar Land businessman Lee Duggan III announced he'll run in an open HD-85, a district that includes all of Wharton and Jackson counties and part of Fort Bend County. That's a familiar name: Lee Duggan Jr., his dad, was Sugar Land's mayor for nine years.

In the next district over, Sugar Land City Council member Tom Abraham says he'll run for Rep. Charlie Howard's HD-26 seat, and says he's starting with $170,000 already in his campaign account. He's the third candidate in that race; when Howard was announcing his plans not to come back, he predicted there will be at least four Republicans in the race.

Giovanni Capriglione will take another run at Rep. Vicki Truitt, R-Keller. She beat him and two other candidates, without a runoff, in the March 2010 primary election.

Former Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale says he won't run for a Williamson County House seat after all. Van Arsdale served as a Tomball Republican, lost to Allen Fletcher, and moved to the Austin area. He planned to run for the House in an open HD-149 seat and said he was opening the race with $100,000 already raised. But Cedar Park City Councilman Tony Dale decided to get into the race, prompting Van Arsdale to get out.

Larry Taylor claims endorsements from 14 mayors in SD-11. The Friendswood Republican is running for Mike Jackson's Senate seat. His list of mayors: La Porte Mayor Louis Rigby, Pasadena Mayor Johnny Isbell, Deer Park Mayor Wayne Riddle, Pearland Mayor Tom Reid, Friendswood Mayor David Smith, Santa Fe Mayor Ralph Stenzel, Hitchcock Mayor Anthony Matranga, Clear Lake Shores Mayor Vern Johnson, El Lago Mayor Brad Emel, Webster Mayor Floyd Myers, League City Mayor Tim Paulissen, Dickinson Mayor Julie Masters, Tiki Island Mayor Ted Kennedy and Jamaica Beach Mayor Victor Pierson. He's also claiming five fellow Republican state representatives in his fan club, all of whom have districts that overlap the Senate district: Dennis Bonnen of Angleton, Ken Legler of Pasadena, Randy Weber of Pearland, Wayne Smith of Baytown, and John Davis of Clear Lake.

Bennett Ratliff picked up an endorsement from Dallas County Commissioner Maureen Dickey. Rep. Jim Jackson, R-Carrollton, (himself former county commissioner) isn't seeking another term and Ratliff is running for that HD-115 spot.

Running for reelection: Rep. Jason Issac, R-Dripping Springs, in HD-45; Sen. John Carona, R-Dallas, in SD-16; Rep. Drew Darby, R-San Angelo, in HD-72; Rep. Jim Murphy, R-Houston, in HD-133; Rep. Ken Legler, R-Pasadena, in HD-144; Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, in HD-48; Rep. Doug Miller, R-New Braunfels, in HD-73; and Allan Ritter, R-Nederland, in HD-21.

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Immigration issues jumped into the center ring of the presidential race, so we took the opportunity to ask our insiders how that's going to play for Gov. Rick Perry.

The verdict? It depends. Most think he's got political trouble ahead for saying the children of illegal immigrants should be entitled to in-state tuition rates at state colleges and universities. But when it comes to a ban on sanctuary cities — a major topic of conversation during last year's gubernatorial election and this year's legislative sessions — only a minority of the insiders said it would hurt Perry's presidential chances.

The governor's opposition to a border fence might be a winner in Texas, the insiders say, but not in a national Republican presidential primary; 58 percent think that one's going to hurt.

Overall, three of five insiders said his positions on immigration and border security will cause him trouble in the primary election. In their comments, however, a significant number say the things that threaten Perry in a Republican primary could be beneficial in a general election, if he gets that far.

As usual, we've collected a full set of verbatim comments, and those are attached. Here's a sampling:

Does Gov. Rick Perry's support for in-state college tuition for the children of illegal immigrants help him or hurt him in the GOP presidential primary?

• "Hurts because the sound bites will never convey the fact that this is actually a good policy position for a change. Too easy to describe it as something else done to help people illegally in this country without looking at the merits."

• "Giving benefits to illegals or children of will be a problem initially for anyone who voted for or signed a bill."

• "The GOP base hates this."

• "It's one of the rare extreme positions he has that helps him in the general election. If he wins the Republican nomination while publicly defending Hispanics, then he could do very well against Obama."

• "Perry was accidentally progressive, in the distant past when rationality was still a legitimate argument."

• "It may hurt in the primary but it helps in the long term"

Does the state Legislature's failure to adopt Perry's call for a ban on sanctuary cities help him or hurt him in the primary?

• "Sanctuary cities is so over. He is right to ignore them."

• "Anyone who calls this a tempest has teapot envy."

• "Tea Party nut bags will soon realize his hypocrisy that he called it on one hand and killed at behest of the money boys on the other hand."

• "Rs want police shaking down all Hispanics for cause or no."

• "He tried twice."

• "This is a nationwide issue, not just a border state issue. The criminal element gaining free reign on our streets is a BIG negative."

Does the governor's opposition to a border fence help him or hurt him in the primary?

• "Actually, the fence is the only solution crazier than the virtual wall he pushed. Opposing an 1800 mile fence now that the border rush is slowing down seems very thoughtful."

• "There is no option for it both hurting and helping him in the primary. Not all white Republicans are nativists. And a significant percentage of Hispanics will vote Republican. Opposing the border fence helps him with these voters, but it hurts him with nativist Tea Party types."

• "To primary voters north of San Antonio it will be hard to believe that he is serious about border security whilst opposing the fence."

• "A good number supporting a fence live in states no bigger than Memorial stadium."

• "Thus far, he has said a "physical fence" is unnecessary and, essentially, wasteful. And anyone watching his first debate saw the other candidates footnote their answers about a border fence, saying it could be done via technology. So Governor Perry may be leading on this one."

Taken as a whole, do the governor's positions on immigration and border security help him or hurt him in the primary?

• "Probably hurts because he is being a realist. Most primary voters are not."

• "He has the conservative creds, and strangely, the fact that his immigration stances appear moderate to them helps him counter Romney's electability argument."

• "Jobs and the economy will be the main issue for everyone. Period."

• "He has the advantage of governing the state with the largest US/Mexico border. He comes off with more authority on the subject than his counterparts."

• "He's right about these issues in Texas, both politically and practically. It's hard to explain that, however, to people who are so rabidly opposed to his positions."

• "This is worse for him in the primary than everything else (crony capitalism, HPV, Social Security) put together."

• "The fact is Gov. Perry is reasonable and correct on immigration (no snickering); the question is will the reasonable elements of the GOP outnumber the unreasonable voters in the primary. Oh yeah, if they do, will Perry's less reasonable positions (HPV) harm him more than immigration?"

• "Rick Perry is Teflon."

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Texas Weekly has moved into the friendly confines of the Texas Tribune's website, and so we're asking you to switch from the old site to the new one. If you've already got a login at the Tribune, you should be able to read Texas Weekly stories without doing anything else. If not, you'll need to sign up. Here are the instructions:

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Let me know what you think.

— Ross Ramsey, editor

A new website developed by the city of Houston and the federal government encourages ordinary citizens to report on suspicious activities that could be terrorism related. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano visited Houston to talk about the program, dubbed “If You See Something, Say Something," which will be funded by existing grants and use Houston police personnel who are already trained to handle emergency calls. 

Tea Party activists at a press conference called on Gov. Rick Perry to bring legislators back to Austin to tackle what they call unfinished business: cracking down on illegal immigration. During the regular and special sessions, Perry prioritized a bill banning so-called sanctuary cities, or municipalities that prevent their law enforcement from asking detainees legal status. The bill died, but Tea Partiers are lobbying Perry to revive the issue as he ramps up his presidential campaign.

As the El Paso County Clerk’s office worked to verify signatures that would trigger a recall election of the city’s mayor and two city representatives, the group that started the effort found itself embroiled in controversy. El Pasoans for Traditional Family Values held a news conference last weekend at which a member of its group held up a sign depicting Mayor John Cook — whom the group is trying to recall over his support for benefits for gay or unmarried partners of city employees — with a guitar smashed on his head and blood dripping down his face. One member of the group apologized to the mayor, while another, who is the spokesman for the group, criticized the apology. The recall election will be set for May, pending verification of signatures and a legal challenge by Cook over the manner in which they were collected.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday granted death row inmate Cleve Foster a third stay of execution. Foster's lawyers say he received deficient legal assistance at his original trial, and because the court has accepted another case dealing with legal assistance, speculation in the legal community has indicated that the justices wanted to resolve the issue. If Foster’s review is denied, the path would be cleared for another execution date.

Shifting alignments in football conferences appear to have settled — at least for now. The four teams contemplating jumping from the Big 12 to the Pac-12 will be staying put after the Pac-12 decided it didn’t want to become the Pac-16. Boards of regents at both the University of Texas and Oklahoma University had voted to give their presidents authority to explore new conferences, but with Pac-12 out of the question, those teams will apparently stick with the Big 12.

The Texas AgriLife Extension Service at Texas A&M released figures this week on agricultural losses from the state’s wildfires. The total figure was close to $200 million, with agricultural loss estimates based on acreage and livestock lost and structures and equipment destroyed. Officials were quick to point out that that figure doesn’t include losses from drought, which are estimated at the much higher total of $5 billion.

Just as candidate Rick Perry was bragging about job creation in Texas, the state saw its unemployment rate increase and a net loss of jobs in August. Although the unemployment rate ticked up from 8.4 to 8.5 percent, it was still below the national average of 9.1 percent. A big culprit in the net loss of jobs was the 9,400 government jobs lost in August. The governor’s office tried to put a positive spin on the figures released by the Texas Workforce Commission by focusing on the creation of 8,100 private-sector jobs.

Gov. Rick Perry's longtime friend and top adviser Jay Kimbrough was abruptly ousted as deputy chancellor of the Texas A&M University System by new chancellor John Sharp, a college buddy of the governor's who became a rival and is now back in the fold. Security was called to escort Kimbrough out after he revealed to senior staff a pocketknife he carries. Perry said nice things about both men and declined to say more, calling it a personnel matter for A&M.

Laura Doll, board chair for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state grid operator, announced that she plans to leave the board at the beginning of 2012 to pursue a career opportunity in California. Doll, a former executive with the California Public Utilities Commission and the California Power Authority, has served on the ERCOT board since June 2010 and as chair since January 2011.

ERCOT also selected three new board members, subject to approval by the ERCOT members and the Public Utility Commission:  Craven Crowell of Knoxville, TN; Karl V. Pfirrmann of Greensburg, PA; and Judy Walsh of Alto, NM. Crowell has 25 years of experience in federal government services, including serving as chair of the Tennessee Valley Authority. Pfirrmann is a former executive for PJM Interconnection in Norristown, PA, including terms as executive vice president and as interim president and CEO. Walsh was appointed by Texas Governor George W. Bush as commissioner for the Public Utility Commission and served from 1995 to 2001 before leaving the state.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed three members to the Texas State Technical College System Board of Regents. Joe Gurecky of Rosenberg is owner and board chairman of Gurecky Manufacturing Services, and former mayor and councilmember for the City of Rosenberg. John Hatchel of Woodway is a retired deputy assistant city manager of the City of Waco. Joe Hearne of Dallas is facilities coordinator of Pilgrim Rest Missionary Baptist Church, and retired quality assurance engineering and supply chain manager of Elcan Optical Technologies.

The governor also appointed Rolando Pablos of Olmos Park and reappointed Ken Anderson Jr. of Dallas to the Public Utility Commission. Pablos is an attorney in private practice and a senior advisor of SNR Denton; he had considered a run for the state Senate until Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, decided to seek another term. Anderson is a current commissioner of the Public Utility Commission, and is a former corporate and securities attorney in private practice.

Justice Ann Crawford McClure has become the first female chief justice of the Texas 8th Court of Appeals in El Paso. Gov. Rick Perry appointed McClure, who will assume her new role on Oct. 12, when current Chief Justice David Wellington Chew steps down. McClure has served on the court since 1995.