On the eve of a major fundraising deadline, a new poll says incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Democrat Rick Noriega are tied, statistically, among likely Texas voters.
That's got the Noriega camp beating the drum to attract donations, and the Republican's better-funded campaign pooh-poohing the survey, which they say isn't balanced to match partisan political reality in Texas.
Democrats hope a nationwide mood for "change" will enable Noriega to take down a vulnerable incumbent, although they're ceding the spending contest to Cornyn. Republicans are comfortable relying on superior firepower to achieve victory for Cornyn, who they say has proved himself to be in lockstep with the majority of Texans.
The challenger's task is two-fold: 1) Show voters that reelecting Cornyn isn't a good idea; then, 2) Prove he's a viable alternative, says Democratic strategist Kelly Fero, who worked for Mikal Watts, a San Antonio Democrat who dropped out of the race before the primaries, and for Ron Kirk, who opposed Cornyn in 2002.
Cornyn has already accomplished Step One for Noriega, says Fero. Surveys indicate "unstable terrain" beneath the incumbent's feet, he says (talking before the latest poll was unveiled).
A brand-new poll by the non-profit, non-partisan Texas Lyceum shows Cornyn just two points ahead of Noriega, 38 to 36 percent, well within the margin of error for the poll. A large portion of voters are undecided, 24 percent. (Disclosure: The boss here at Texas Weekly helped formulate the poll questions and wrote the summaries to explain the numbers.)
But Step Two requires money, and Noriega is far behind the incumbent.
In the Cornyn camp, consultant Todd Olsen says his guy's going to have plenty of resources to launch a devastating air campaign. At the rate he's going, Cornyn might eclipse the $9.8 million he raised during his 12-point victory over Kirk.
Last time he reported, in April, Cornyn had $8.7 million in the bank, enough to pay for five or six weeks of television. For now, Olsen says, they're working the ground game: Cornyn and campaign staffers have already knocked on more than 50,000 doors.
The Democrats didn't find much to celebrate in Noriega's last fundraising report, which showed the Houston state representative and Afghanistan veteran with only $329,293 at the end of March (Noriega's 2007 reports weren't so hot, either, as he was unable to capitalize on relaxed fundraising restrictions when facing the fabulously wealthy Watts).
Fero did an analysis for a potential candidate at the beginning of 2007, estimating a Democrat would need to spend $17 million to be competitive with Cornyn. However, because of the national mood, Noriega "can get it done with less money than that," he says. He tossed out the figure of between $10 and $12 million. He says there's a good chance Noriega will get monetary help from the national party if he's "within nine or 10 points" of Cornyn in September.
"He's not going to be the candidate with the most money, but he needs enough money to have a conversation with voters," Fero says.
Texas GOP spokesperson Hans Klingler says it will be "very tough" for an "underfunded" Democrat like Noriega to defeat Cornyn, though he says the presidential election presents "a lot of x-factors."
"The challenge exists for all Republicans in this very different, historical, dynamic setting," Klingler says.
Noriega's spokesperson, Tony Gray, says they're counting on Barack Obama's support in urban areas to help bring out the city folk in November. In the meantime, Noriega is stumping in less-populated and/or traditionally Republican areas like Far West and East Texas. For example, Noriega just concluded a tour through Odessa-Midland, Big Springs and Lubbock. Gray says Noriega will spend the Fourth of July in El Paso with Democratic legislators U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes and state Sen. Eliot Shapleigh.
While out west, Noriega also planned to track down the one person in Loving County who voted for him in the primary, Gray says. (Gene Kelly — not the dancer — won 15 of the 21 votes cast there.)
With limited funds, Noriega has been trying to get coverage from newspapers and broadcasters to attack Cornyn on things like veterans' benefits. "Rick's been pounding him left and right everyday. He's being aggressive in the press," Gray says.
The heightened enthusiasm among Democrats — the bloom of voting in the primaries is the evidence — will make up for the money gap that will exist between the candidates, Gray says.
Throw in rising energy prices and a worsening economy, and "the conditions are right for the perfect storm," says Gray. "Everybody's talking about kitchen table issues. Even the well-heeled are bitching about the price of gas."
Olsen disagrees, saying the current environment is ideal for a forward-looking incumbent like Cornyn.
"You can't go on the assumption that the climate is any less positive for Republicans who vote the way John Cornyn votes on issue after issue," he says.
And he ridiculed a suggestion by Noriega, as reported in Midland media outlets, that the U.S. obtain energy independence by obtaining more oil from Iraq. Gray says the comment was taken out of context, and Noriega was referring to promises made by the George W. Bush administration that money from Iraqi oil would pay for the invasion. (Judge for yourself in this YouTube video.)
Olsen says the campaign will use sophisticated micro-targeting to identify and turn out likely Cornyn voters, no matter where they live. They're using the Washington, D.C., firm Target Point, which worked along with Olsen's firm on Rudy Giuliani's presidential bid.
What it comes down to, says Olsen, is that Noriega is just plain wrong on the issues, and Cornyn is right.
"The most important thing is going to be who can address the rising cost of healthcare, because that is such a growing concern for people who vote," he says.
—by Patrick Brendel