The Polling Center: What Early Poll Results Tell Us

Some people might have been surprised by the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll results released Monday, which showed Greg Abbott leading Wendy Davis by 6 points in a two-way contest and by 5 in a three-way race — a single-digit margin for a statewide office that the Democrats haven’t claimed for 20 years.

The context of a survey conducted a little more than a year before Election Day clarifies two seemingly contradictory results: a competitive gubernatorial race among registered voters alongside a substantial Republican advantage in party identification and political engagement.

The most important contextual factor in viewing Abbott’s ...

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