Sometimes, It's Hard to Make a Good Political Bet

If you hate sports analogies, you will really hate this: Conventional wisdom in politics serves the same purpose as the betting line in sports. It reveals a particular set of expectations, indicates the consensus about the risk of putting money on one contestant over another and provides a way to talk about an event — both in anticipation of what might happen and in the analysis of what actually took place after it’s over.

The fast way into an election chat is to ask, “So who wins the governor’s race?”

You have heard the conversation. This one is a ...

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