Just What is a "Likely Voter"?

The prospect of a May 29 primary, with any necessary runoffs on July 31, has spawned much "conventional wisdom" about who will turn out for this election. Most of what you’ll hear comes from one campaign or the other, usually in a blatant — if understandable — attempt to paint their chances in the best light as a means of attracting donor dollars in what is already an extremely long campaign season. All this posturing raises the question: Given a survey of potential voters, how should we go about determining what the electorate might look like on Election Day?

If ...

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