For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are indicated by an (i). An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat, and those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer = hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 4 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: Lowered HD-92 to orange. Added CD-33 to yellow. Dropped CD-19 and CD-30 from the list.

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Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

State Rep. Jim Keffer, R-Eastland on April 10, 2013.

It seems like the legislative race on everyone's lips inside the Austin bubble this week is the Jim Keffer race in HD-60. Movement conservatives have made runs at the Eastland Republican (and Speaker Joe Straus cardinal) in past election cycles. But what we keep hearing is that the continued shift in the district's voter center of gravity to the Granbury area favors a conservative challenger.

That challenger this time is Cullen Crisp, a Granbury farmer who grows strawberries and peaches and harvests honey. His financial reports aren't gaudy. His 30-day report filed this week shows him raising just $15,525 with roughly twice that much in cash on hand for the remaining month of campaigning.

What he has now, though, are endorsements that resonate with Tea Party primary voters. Congressman Bill Flores announced his support for Crisp in mid-January. Not coincidentally, Flores noted that he took 74 percent of the vote in Hood County (where Granbury is located) when he scored his 2010 victory over Chet Edwards.

More importantly, Crisp has the support of Empower Texans. The Tim Dunn-financed group gave Crisp $10,000, or nearly two-thirds of what he raised during the first three weeks of the year. In addition, the HD-60 race is one of several being highlighted in mail pieces sent out by Texans for Fiscal Responsibility, a direct campaign expenditure entity related to Empower Texans.

Keffer, meanwhile, reported raising about $48,000 on his 30-day report with big money contributions coming from the Good Government Fund ($6,000), the political arm of Chesapeake Energy ($5,000) and the political arm of Atmos Energy ($3,500). Keffer is chairman of the House Energy Resources Committee.

The incumbent has more than $330,000 in his campaign war chest for the final month.

The race, though, has developed some real heat this week, spurred by broadsides from the Crisp campaign and Empower Texans. The Crisp campaign equated a Keffer mailer critical of Crisp for educating his children at a private school to an attack on his children.

Empower Texans went after the Keffer campaign for trying to get cable companies to stop airing an Empower Texans advertisement that questioned his conservative credentials. In asking to have the advertisement yanked, the Keffer campaign is claiming it has false content.

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HD-6 GOP challenger Skip Ogle received some attention in mid-January for a six-figure haul in campaign contributions. That total was doubly remarkable for how much of the money came from local donors. He appeared to maintain that momentum on his 30-day report, raising more than $56,000 over the first 23 days of January.

Tyler oil and gas man Curtis Mewbourne gave Ogle a $20,000 contribution — equaling what he gave the challenger last fundraising period. In addition, the political arm of the Texas Association of Realtors gave Ogle $10,000.

Ogle raised more than twice what the incumbent, Matt Schaefer, raised. Schaefer reported more than $24,000 in contributions on his 30-day report. And Ogle spent more than three times as much as Schaefer.

Like the HD-60 race, Empower Texans is backing Schaefer with the affiliated Texans for Fiscal Responsibility spending money independently on the HD-6 contest.

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Susan Lilly, President of Lilly and Company.

Welcome to the first of what we hope will be a regular feature at Texas Weekly — Q&A sessions with the personalities who make the machinery of Texas politics run.

The first interview features GOP fundraiser Susan Lilly.

Lilly got her start as a staffer for Railroad Commissioner Barry Williamson. In 1997, she started Lilly & Company, now the chief fundraiser for a number of high-profile campaigns and officeholders, including Speaker Joe Straus, Dan Branch for Attorney General, Chief Justice Nathan Hecht, Justices Phil Johnson and Jeff Boyd and a dozen Texas congressmen.

At the national level, she has handled fundraising for Speaker of the House John Boehner, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressman Paul Ryan Victory Committee in Texas. She has performed similar duties for two GOP state conventions and the Texas Victory effort on multiple occasions.

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Texas Weekly: What do you make of this perceived split between “movement” conservatives and “establishment” conservatives. Do you find yourself having to modify your message to raise funds in the current environment?

Susan Lilly: No. We’re not having to modify our message. I think our message is the same. But I think there is a distinction between movement conservatives and — what did you call them? — establishment. I think, by and large, everybody wants the same thing. They just have two distinct ways of going about it to accomplish their goals.

TW: With the passing of several prominent big dollar GOP contributors from the scene in the past year, are you seeing a new generation of contributors establishing themselves or is the fundraising apparatus in the GOP decentralizing?

Lilly: No, there’s definitely a new generation of contributors coming. They may not be giving to the amount that Bob Perry and Harold Simmons were giving, but they are giving considerable amounts and there’s a lot more people. So really, in your fundraising, you just have to make sure that you’re reaching everyone instead of just targeting select few individuals.

TW: And that’s how you’ve kind of adjusted…

Lilly: Right, which is good for the candidates I work with, because you need to be … this is a game of addition, not subtraction.

TW: The Texas Tribune recently ran a story of another instance where a campaign tracker infiltrated a fundraiser to record the proceedings in order to get a recording that could be disparaging to the candidate. When you read about this, is this something that you’re having to take into consideration when you’re involved with staging fundraisers?

Lilly: Like who’s coming?

TW: Yeah...

Lilly: Definitely. We’ve had people come to fundraisers and shout obscenities and be disrespectful on a few occasions. And I mean, that is why we try to, you know, have RSVPs and know who’s coming and also know who’s on the mailing list. And so I think any campaign would be wise to kind of track, you know, who’s attending. 

TW: Are you at the point now where you’re going to have to start checking to see if people are bringing recording devices? 

Lilly: I pretty much figure you’re being recorded at all times. 

TW: Is that something you have to explain to people who are speaking at fundraisers? That you never know?

Lilly: Usually, we do kind of give them a heads up. And, I mean, they know because they live public lives. I think it’s something very different, you know, when you see on a smaller scale like for a state rep race or something versus, you know, speaker of the U.S. House or a U.S. senator or something. Because they know they’re getting taped the minute they walk out of the Capitol Hill Club or something in Washington. 

TW: Let me ask you kind of a very open-ended question here. Why do people give to a campaign?

Lilly: I think because they feel passionate about getting that person elected or, you know, they just feel very excited once they get to know that person and want to see that person succeed. 

TW: Do you find in your experience that it’s more about the person rather than the ideology? Or is it vice versa? 

Lilly: I think it’s a lot to do with the person. Because you can pick Donor X and they might give a little bit to one person and give a very large sum to another person. So I think it has to do with the relationship.

TW: The totals reported on these [campaign finance] reports are seen often as a shorthand for the strength of a campaign. Do you consider that a fair metric?

Lilly: I think it’s a pretty fair metric. There’s always those that, I know, in two races I’m dealing with right now where our opponents are being funded by some special-interest groups that all of that money always comes in late. We won’t see it till the eight-day report. But there’s been a history there so we’re aware of it. But, by and large, I mean, at this point in time, 30 days out you should see if people are willing to invest in candidates’ campaigns and help them get their message out. And if the funds aren’t there, and you know that candidate is not personally able to write a check, it does kind of start separating, you know, into who’s going to make the runoff and who is not. 

TW: In your opinion, what is the best kind of endorsement? A fellow officeholder? Maybe a celebrity endorsement? Maybe a prominent trade association? Which to you has the most currency?

Lilly: That’s a hard question. I would say a trade association because that trade association has to vote on it with their board and it comes with, for example, when Farm Bureau endorses, it not only comes with a contribution, it comes with, they’re going to do an endorsement in their magazine that goes out to all of their members. They also do the 4x8 signs, and put those out for you. So they come with, you know, money, marbles and chalk. I think it’s great to have another elected official’s endorsement, but often that elected official may not be able to even vote in that particular district. And the one thing you get is, you might get that person’s friends, but you definitely get all of their enemies. 

TW: To you, what are the elements of a successful fundraising campaign?

Lilly: I think being organized. I mean, details … being detailed and being organized. And the follow up. I always tell people when they’re looking to hire us that I’m not a party planner, I don’t care about the color of the napkins. Or whether or not we’re serving beanie weenies. I care about raising the most amount of money for the least amount of cost possible. Because every dollar that we raise goes directly into the campaign. And they’re able to get on TV or in mailboxes or whatever. 

TW: Final question here. If you had to change one thing about the way we select our leaders, what would it be?

Lilly: All leaders, or one in particular?

TW: Just in general … you’ve worked in the system for a long time so you’ve had the chance to really observe how this whole democracy thing works. Granting you the power to change one aspect of it, what would it be?

Lilly: I don’t know that I would change anything except maybe when it comes to judges. I think it needs to, and I know that they’re doing an interim study on the election vs. selection of judges. And I have always been pro electing every office. And after having many conversations with Chief Justice [Wallace] Jefferson and Chief Justice [Tom] Phillips, I’m more interested in maybe a a selection of judges. But otherwise, I wouldn’t change. I think people who want to serve in office need to kind of take their wares to the voters and voters need to decide. And I may not always agree with the voters. But it is what it is. 

TW: Is there anything here that you’d like to bring up to finish this?

Lilly: I think it’s important that people really … candidates really need to strongly consider who they’re hiring. And know their backgrounds and also take responsibility for their campaigns. And then I think people contributing, you know, need to look at the candidate thoroughly.

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This week in the Newsreel: We've heard how much money many of the 2014 campaigns have taken in. How much are they spending? Leticia Van de Putte explains how her campaign for lite guv is different from — and similar to — the campaign of Wendy Davis. A couple of Texas schools announce a $10,000 college degree.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/1g7knls

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This week, we asked the insiders for whether some of the big spending issues of the past — public education, transportation and water — will be issues during this year’s elections and next year’s legislative session.

The short answers: yes and yes. School spending topped the list for election issues, and 70 percent of the government and political insiders said it will reappear during next year’s session. Transportation spending was slightly ahead as a legislative issue and slightly behind the schools as an election issue. State spending on water still registers, but only 43 percent expect to see that one next year, what with voter approval of a water financing initiative last November.

In the wake of the fertilizer explosion in West and earthquakes in Azle that have been blamed on fracking, we asked whether business and environmental regulation rank as campaign and legislative issues. Most insiders said this will not be a subject of conversation during the elections, but 45 percent expect to see legislation on the subject.

We asked the insiders for their comments on those questions, and also included an open-ended question about what issues they expect to see in the 2015 legislative session. A full set of their answers is attached; a sampling follows.

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Will spending on transportation, water, and public schools be issues in the 2014 elections? (check all that apply)

• "No, will not be issues in Republican legislative races; unfortunately any 'new spending' is the new 3d rail of R races. Sen. Wendy Davis will try to make issue of the infrastructure and education needs of additional funding but will not get traction with majority of voters (sadly enough)."

• "Yes to all. Ds will say we don't spend enough. Rs will say we're spending the right amount. And Stickland/Schaeffer/Simpson will say we're spending too much."

• "Transportation dollars are on the ballot, so it'll definitely be an issue."

• "With the reconfiguration of the Water Development Board, water will now join the stalwarts of transportation and public schools as our big, perennial spending issues."

• "So far, of course, the issues are immigration, creationism, and dates of divorce. But it's always possible that something substantive might emerge by November."

• "Public schools will be driven by the court. Transportation is a must, regardless of the small gains in the November Constitutional amendment. Water has money now, but there will be additional efforts to address the delivery of that money."

• "Like a vampire, funding of public schools is an issue that never dies. And when the sun shines on it all you see is smoke and mirrors."

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Will the next Legislature vote to spend more money on transportation, water, and public schools? (check all that apply)

• "They'll punt on transportation because the constitutional amendment would have passed by then. Our legislature will be uncomfortable spending more on public schools because the majority party isn't really sure where the money goes."

• "Definitely transportation--they need it. Water probably gets a timeout this session. And public schools can't ever get enough."

• "Nope. Transportation is not yet seen as a crisis and public education has a spending problem, not a funding problem. The general sentiment is that we 'took care of water'"

• "We are coming into our first post-Rick Perry session flush with cash. Who is going to hold the line on spending now?"

• "We can only hope that they will vote to use some of the surplus to add funds to Transportation and Public Schools. But most are so worried about their next election they can't get a majority to do the right thing. You can be conservative and take care of the states infrastructure and children...they are not mutually exclusive!"

• "Only if they can come up with an alternative to new fees and/or taxes. Abbott will be more conservative than Perry."

• "More? Yes. Enough to keep up with inflation and population growth? What is you, a Commie?"

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Will new regulations relating to the fertilizer explosion in West or the earthquakes in Azle that some residents blame on energy exploration be an issue in the 2014 elections?

• "It will be addressed in a dog-and-pony method: 1) Bill will be filed; 2) Committee will hear it; 3) A few articles will be written; 4) then it dies. Both of these issues are 'two-session' issues."

• "I doubt anything will pass due to the earthquakes, but I am sure some process will be put in place concerning the storage of large amounts of hazardous materials."

• "Probably not, but then again real issues rarely are discussed on the primary trail. Only who is pure enough."

• "While they may be legitimate controversies, neither is a potent political issue."

• "In West and Azle, maybe, but nowhere else."

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Will the next Legislature approve new regulations in 2015 relating to the fertilizer explosion in West or the earthquakes in Azle that some residents blame on energy exploration?

• "Well now, that's a good question. I'd say the odds are better for the fertilizer explosion than for the earthquakes - for obvious reasons."

• "There simply has to be some meaningful regulations relating to the fertilizer explosions. No choice. I think there has to be some accepted scientific link to exploration and earthquakes before the Texas legislature shuts down fracking."

• "Definitely on streamlining fertilizer regulation, but the science is still out on the earthquakes so what would the law say?"

• "Probably some window dressing regulations, but nothing substantive."

What 2014 election issues do you think will become legislative issues in 2015?

• "ACA related"

• "Border security."

• "Immigration and illegals and benefits, funding of public schools vs. resources going to private schools, plaintiff lawyer agenda"

• "Rainy Day Fund. Period."

• "Abortion, education"

• "Medicaid expansion, eminent domain, transportation and education, always..."

• "Roads, water, education, pay day lending, tax loopholes, tax abatements"

• "Open Carry, Campus Carry"

• "Immigration; abortion; marijuana decriminalization."

• "Education funding"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Amy Beneski, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Richard Hardy, Susan Hays, Ken Hodges, Billy Howe, Laura Huffman, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Russ Keane, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Richard Levy, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Matt Matthews, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

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Friday, Feb. 7

• TribLive event with state Sen. Kel Seliger and state Reps. John Smithee and Walter "Four" Price; West Texas A&M University, Canyon (11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.)
• Campaign rally for state Senate candidate Don Huffines, featuring U.S. Sen. Rand Paul; Frontiers of Flight Museum, Dallas (6 p.m.)

Saturday, Feb. 8

• Harris County Republican Party's Lincoln-Reagan Day Dinner; Hilton Post Oak, Houston (7 p.m.)

Wednesday, Feb. 12

• Fundraising reception for Attorney General Greg Abbott, featuring Gov. Rick Perry, at the home of Zoe and Tony Buzbee; 1722 River Oaks Blvd., Houston (6 p.m.)
• Transportation town hall with state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione; Colleyville Center, Colleyville (7-8:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Feb. 13

• TribLive event with agriculture commissioner candidate Sid Miller; Austin Club, Austin (8 a.m.)
• Birthday celebration for state Rep. Chris Paddie, featuring Speaker Joe Straus; Lambert's Downtown Barbecue, Austin (5-7 p.m.)

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis surprised fellow Democrats by telling The Associated Press she is for embracing reforms that would allow Texans to openly carry handguns — even into the state Capitol. The Texas Democratic Party quickly signaled it disagreed with Davis, telling the AP, "There is little or no public safety justification for open carry."

Greg Abbott, the Republican candidate for governor, proposed a dramatic increase in state spending on border security and other crime-fighting initiatives. But he hasn't identified the funding to pay for the programs, which would send 500 more troopers to the border and would cost $345 million.

Fundraising reports for the month of January showed Greg Abbott re-establishing a fundraising edge on Wendy Davis. He raised $3.1 million while she raised $913,000 among three committees. Abbott largely outraised Davis with the help of several six-figure contributions, while Davis relied on smaller donations.

Democrats circulated a secret recording of Greg Abbott's comments at a fundraiser that they said demonstrate the likely GOP nominee for governor is pushing attacks on his Democratic rival, Wendy Davis, while publicly maintaining he's above the fray.

After about a year and a half of development, Texas A&M University-Commerce and South Texas College in late January unveiled a new, innovative response to Gov. Rick Perry's $10,000-college-degree challenge.

More than three years after San Antonio Water System asked the private sector to develop plans for a new water supply for the growing region, the utility has decided not to use any of them.

Peter Clark is taking over as communications director for Texans Care for Children after working for state Rep. Mike Villarreal, D-San Antonio, for seven years.

The campaign of Republican HD-16 candidate Ted Seago announced that Jason Millsaps is withdrawing from the party primary and is supporting Seago's candidacy. Millsaps' name will remain on the ballot.

The Texas Oil and Gas Association PAC endorsed Greg Abbott for governor, David Dewhurst for lieutenant governor, Barry Smitherman for attorney general, Harvey Hilderbran for comptroller and George P. Bush for land commissioner.

The political arm of the Texas Association of Business (BACPAC) released its final set of primary endorsements, giving the nod to David Dewhurst for lieutenant governor, Dan Branch for attorney general and Harvey Hilderbran for comptroller.

Texas Parent PAC endorsed Mike Novak in the SD-25 GOP primary. Novak, along with Elisa Chan, is challenging the incumbent Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels. The Parent PAC also endorsed Austin Keith for the Odessa-based HD-81 and DeWayne Burns in the Johnson and Bosque County-anchored HD-58.

From the Dept. of Endorsements by Current and Former Officeholders:

•    Former Railroad Commissioner Victor Carrillo endorsed Glenn Hegar for comptroller.

•    Former Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt endorsed Barry Smitherman for attorney general.

•    State Sen. and lite guv candidate Leticia Van de Putte endorsed Steve Brown for railroad commissioner.