The 2016 GOP Field: Clear or Unsettled?

Gov. Rick Perry adjusts his glasses during his appearance at the Texas Tribune Festival on Sept. 21.
Gov. Rick Perry adjusts his glasses during his appearance at the Texas Tribune Festival on Sept. 21.

The two quotes featured to the right of this story, each taken from a major national paper this week, neatly encapsulate what would appear to be contradictory positions inside the GOP on the emerging 2016 presidential field.

The one from Virginia GOP fundraiser Bobbie Kilberg ("If you are philosophically a center-right donor, I think you have an interest in clearing the field...") has the feel of wishful thinking. After having seen Mitt Romney hobbled by the feeding frenzy among the GOP primary field in 2012, more than a few big donors are hoping to see a single, consensus establishment candidate emerge to take some of the uncertainty out of the primary process.

Whether that turns out to be Romney or the other establishment-favored candidates, Jeb Bush or Chris Christie, is not as important as that someone emerges who has the potential to “clear the field.”

The second quote from former Romney adviser Dan Senor ("This is going to be chaotic and cluttered for some time.") acknowledges instead the hesitancy of the big GOP donors about committing early not just because of uncertainty about which establishment candidates will run but also because of uncertainty about who outside of the establishment fold will run.

One of those non-establishment candidates would be Gov. Rick Perry, who is taking the month of December to position himself as both a more thoughtful candidate and a more committed conservative on the issue of immigration.

Perry has been sitting down with reporters this week to showcase this new and improved brand. Perhaps the most interesting of the pieces for Texas political observers is his interview with Philip Rucker of the Washington Post.

For instance, the piece posits that Perry plans to use the first few months of his post-gubernatorial life “to make serious money.” That would involve making speeches, writing a memoir and serving on corporate boards.

The other interesting observation is Rucker writing that Perry’s wife, Anita, “is pushing her husband to run.”

Readers will recall that Anita Perry similarly spurred her husband to action with his first run for the White House. Perry later described his wife as saying to him, “Get out of your comfort zone.”

One thing has remained constant over the past few months. Despite all the travel and the parade of policy tutorials in Austin, Perry maintains he is in no hurry to make public a decision to run.

In the Post interview and in a separate interview with The Associated Press this week, Perry continued to indicate that it will be another six months or so before he decides.

In that talk with the AP, Perry seems comfortable with people assuming he plans to run.

"People think we're going to run, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.” Perry said.

In the aftermath of his 2012 run, Perry said one of his big regrets was to wait too long to enter the race. He waited until August of 2011 before jumping into the contest.

While he might not announce officially until June, his unofficial prep work — whether it’s granting interviews or lining up supporters for his Super PAC — gives at least some indication how he plans this time around to address this central self critique from four years ago.

More Statewides Are Staffing Up

Land Commissioner George P. Bush speaking at the GOP election night party at the Moody Theater in Austin on Nov. 4, 2014.
Land Commissioner George P. Bush speaking at the GOP election night party at the Moody Theater in Austin on Nov. 4, 2014.

This week’s flurry of staff announcements for the newly elected statewides was highlighted by the release of a staff roster by Gov.-elect Greg Abbott. But he by no means was the only one disclosing high-profile hires.

Incoming Land Commissioner George P. Bush, for instance, released a series of announcements this week on his staff hires.

•    Topping the list is his choice of Trey Newton, Bush’s former campaign manger and former director of Hispanic Republicans of Texas, to be his chief of staff at the General Land Office. Newton’s GOP DNA is firmly imprinted. His father, Norman, ran the Associated Republicans of Texas, one of the groups most directly responsible for the rise of the modern Texas Republican Party, for more than 30 years.

•    Bush has also tapped former state Rep. Aaron Peña to serve as director of litigation for the GLO’s general counsel. Peña was a longtime Valley Democrat who switched parties after being re-elected in 2010. He served a single term as a Republican.

•    Bush opted for experience when he brought Joey Longley on board to serve as GLO’s director of program management. He directed the Texas Sunset Commission for 14 years before stepping down in 2009. He’s been in the lobby since, most recently working as a director at Grant Thornton LLP in the firm’s state and local practice division.

•    Bush also retained Larry Laine as GLO’s chief clerk, a position he has held since 2003.

*****

Incoming Attorney General Ken Paxton has brought on board a few more Ted Cruz hands to fill out his staff.

Bernard L. McNamee II will serve as Paxton’s chief of staff after having held the title of policy advisor to Cruz. Scott Keller, who was chief counsel for Cruz, will be Paxton’s solicitor general.

Finally, Brantley Starr, who most recently was staff attorney to Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman but worked under Cruz when he was Texas solicitor general, will take the position of deputy attorney general for legal counsel.

Paxton had previously hired Cruz’s senior political advisor, Chip Roy, to be his first assistant attorney general.

And in other Paxton hiring news, Allison Castle, a veteran of the Perry press shop, has been hired as director of communications. She was most recently deputy commissioner of public affairs at the insurance department.

For a full list of Paxton’s staff hires, click here.

Newsreel: Abbott Priorities, HHS, Charter School

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Gov.-elect Greg Abbott unveiled his key issues for the 84th legislative session, the state's sunset commission is recommending that the state's health and human services agencies be combined in one massive agency and 14 charter schools didn't meet state standards for financial and academic performance.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Budget Drivers...

Two issues that figure into any discussion of the state budget — college tuition and the border surge — figured into this week’s survey of insiders in politics and government.

A slight majority believes the schools, and not the Legislature, should set tuition, and think the best way to control tuition rates is for the state to put more money into its colleges and universities. Cutting costs and regulating tuition increases tied for the second most popular controls.

The insiders do not believe the state’s surge on the border — a deployment of National Guard troops and state police — should continue. But asked how long it should continue, 33 percent said three to six months, another 8 percent said up to a year and 29 percent said it should continue for longer than 12 months.

And what about efforts to get the federal government to pay for that policing? The vast majority of our insiders — 86 percent — don’t think that’s going to happen.

We collected comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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Should the Legislature set tuition rates at state colleges and universities or should the schools continue to control that?

• "State Colleges and Universities were given the opportunity to control tuition rates and they were not able to handle that responsibility. Their greed has put our state economy in jeopardy and therefore, as much as my free-economy self hates saying it, it's time for the lege to rein them in."

• "The problem isn't deregulation. The problem is university presidents who create unnecessary layers of administrative employees and non-teaching faculty. Flatten the bureaucracy and put professors back in the classroom."

• "If the state appropriated adequate funding, the schools wouldn't need 'deregulated' tuition. "

• "The increased tuition rates set by universities and colleges doesn't bother me near as much as the overall decline in state support to these public institutions of higher learning. While the total dollar amount appropriated by the Lege might be higher than in the past, as a percentage of the universities' overall budgets it continues to decrease. For example, in the mid-1980s, the state provided 47 percent of UT-Austin's total budget; today it's less than 15%. This is one (but not the only) reason why colleges and universities need to raise tuition--to compensate for the lack of state support."

• "Colleges and universities should set tuition according to their costs and the market, with preferential rates for Texas residents. The state should fund scholarships for Texas residents with financial need."

• "When the legislature cut back funding for higher ed, it lost the 'moral' leverage to put a lid on tuition. "

• "The legislature represents the people (supposedly) and is more in tune with the pain of continuing rising tuition. The schools just want more money."

• "Only fair to allow school to set market-based rates since State funding to individual state universities is such a small percentage of their overall budgets"

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Which is the best way to control rising tuition at state colleges and universities? (Choose all that apply)

• "In addition to cutting costs by flattening bureaucracy and making professors teach, state schools need to harness technology to provide more distance learning options."

• "We've moved from state-supported to state-affiliated in terms of funding...must move the pendulum back or we're going to be in the same place we are with property taxes. We want more and more services and don't want to pay nuttin' for 'em!"

• "It's OK to let the tuition rise, as long as scholarships increase along with it. Kids with wealthy suburban parents should pay full freight, and kids from families struggling to get by should go free. It works for Harvard."

• "We have made a big deal about the cost of college when it is not. If you want it go get it. Find the money. If you don't want it that bad then you don't want it that bad. Stop crying about it. Part deux: if you want to put it on the schools give them incentives to eliminate ridiculous programs and courses that might offer very little to the student, the school and society. Do we need classes like 'The Linguistics of Tolkien's Middle Earth'“?

• "Get rid of the notion that college is 1) for everyone, and 2) a job training program. College isn't there to prepare you for a job or career. It's there to teach you how to think critically, write well, and broaden your horizon. Too many worthless degrees. Cut (not eliminate) those programs and you're off to a solid start. "

• "More funding needed at the staff and faculty levels and for students, but administrative overhead and salaries could use a look."

• "The best way to control costs at state colleges and universities is to trust prospective students and their parents to individually factor cost in and compare that to the value provided to make the best choices possible. This is to say, let the markets work as there are no shortages of higher education consumers and producers."

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Should Texas maintain the surge of state police and National Guard troops on the Mexican border?

• "As Mexico steps up their efforts to prevent entry and to apprehend illegal immigrants who have entered Mexico, as well as US law enforcement's recent efforts to break up smuggling rings, the border surge may no longer be necessary."

• "Wish there had been an option for 'Should we have sent them in the first place?' "

• "Texas *should* not do it; it's the job of the federal gubmint. But since the Obama Administration selectively enforces laws, someone has to step up to the plate and protect the homeland."

• "It's creating real problems both in the National guard and DPS. Serves no real purpose except political."

• "The president has made this necessary, both politically and to deal with a real problem."

• "Enough already. Local communities elsewhere in the state need their troopers back, and the National Guard troops are nothing but window dressing--they can't do anything while there."

• "The question to be answered is what should border security look like in the future. There is a vast amount of technology coming out of the war theater that can make the effort to secure the border more cost effective and efficient."

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How long should that border surge last?

• "It should last until it's clear that it's no longer needed."

• "Until January 20, 2017."

• "The federal government has enough border patrol. There is no need to Texas to spend money on the border. Use these resources for education."

• "As long as it takes, and send the bill to the federal government. "

• " As long you want to pretend it matters"

• "Until there are no more illegal crossings. "

• "If it works, it should last as long as necessary. To paraphrase General Patton, 'let's not pay for the same real estate twice'"

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Do you think the state can convince the federal government to pay for the border surge?

• "If the Obama administration was concerned about border security, they would have taken action."

• "I also don't believe in Santa Clause. "

• "The federal government has paid for Boston, New Orleans and New York City emergency relief."

• "heh heh heh HA HA HA BWAH HA HAH HAH!"

• "To some degree, yes."

• "Why not? We're doing its job."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, William Chapman, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Wil Galloway, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Walt Jordan, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Matt Matthews, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Jeff Rotkoff, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Christopher Williston, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Saturday, Dec. 13

  • Last day for lawmakers, officeholders and certain political committees to accept contributions before the 2015 legislative session.
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

After minimal discussion, a panel of lawmakers on Thursday set a $7 billion minimum balance for the Rainy Day Fund. The action facilitated a $1.7 billion appropriation for roads funding and also helps establish parameters for budget writers next session. 

The Sunset Advisory Commission on Wednesday recommended that lawmakers consolidate the state's five health services agencies into a single entity.

State Sen. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, filed legislation this week that would cap college tuition and tie future growth to the rate of inflation, a clear rebuff of tuition deregulation enacted by GOP lawmakers in the early part of last decade.

State Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, won a five-way race on Saturday to replace Comptroller-elect Glenn Hegar in the Texas Senate. Next up: a special election to fill the vacancy in the House caused by her departure. Austin County Judge Carolyn Bilski has already said she plans to run for the seat.

In his Meet the Press debut, Gov.-elect Greg Abbott declined to state a preference among the emerging field of Republican candidates who would compete for the 2016 presidential nomination.

Political People and their Moves

Outgoing state Comptroller Susan Combs is joining the board of directors for the CATCH Global Foundation, a nonprofit organization dedicated to improving the health of children.

Porter Wilson has been chosen to replace Ann S. Bishop as executive director of the Employees Retirement System of Texas. Wilson is currently associate vice chancellor for governmental relations at Texas Tech University after having served 18 years as chief of staff for state Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock. A date for Bishop's departure has not yet been determined.

San Antonio Express-News business editor Greg Jefferson has stepped down to become the communications director for the mayoral campaign of state Rep. Mike Villarreal, D-San Antonio.

Royce Poinsett of Gardere Wynne Sewell LLP has joined the firm's Austin-based government affairs practice. A former advisor to Gov. Rick Perry and House Speaker Tom Craddick, Poinsett came to his current employer from Baker Botts LLP.

Christine Mojezati took over as district director for state Rep. Jason Villalba, R-Dallas, last month. She most recently was in Colorado, working on Cory Gardner's U.S. Senate campaign.

Quotes of the Week

If you are philosophically a center-right donor, I think you have an interest in clearing the field. I think that’s important because there is clearly going to be a competition of philosophies for who is going to be the presidential nominee.

Virginia GOP fundraiser Bobbie Kilberg on the push to anoint a single establishment-backed presidential candidate

You would be hard pressed to find any invisible primary going back decades that was this fluid. This is going to be chaotic and cluttered for some time.

Former Mitt Romney adviser Dan Senor on the unsettled state of the GOP 2016 presidential field

I think what needed to be done was done. I think we were perfectly justified in doing it. And I'd do it again in a minute.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney, defending the CIA's brutal methods of extracting information from detainees during the Bush administration after the release of a Senate Intelligence report detailing the techniques

We don’t grapple with that here.

Gov. Rick Perry, telling a Washington Post reporter that Texas does not have a problem with income inequality

Running for the presidency's not an IQ test. It is a test of an individual's resolve. It's a test of an individual's philosophy. It's a test of an individual's life's experiences.

Perry in an interview with NBC News on what running for president is and is not