For our list of the most competitive legislative and congressional seats in the state, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a nice loud color.
Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.
Incumbents' names are in bold. Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter) and the threat to the incumbent party's hold on the district. Inside each color, the races are listed by district — not by heat.
Cruz isn’t alone in fanning the issue. Attorney General (and GOP nominee for governor) Greg Abbott sent Houston City Attorney David Feldman a letter on Wednesday asking him to withdraw the subpoenas in order “to demonstrate the City’s commitment to religious liberty and to true diversity of belief.”
That position was echoed by the man aiming to succeed Abbott in the AG’s office. GOP nominee Ken Paxton on Wednesday called the issuing of subpoenas for the sermons “entirely unacceptable.”
In other words, it might not matter anymore whether city leaders are able to retract the subpoena, which Parker described as “overly broad.”
The issue appears to have hit critical mass among Christian conservatives, a group that has spoken often in recent years about government intrusion into their ability to freely practice their religion, just days before the start of early voting.
Cruz’s online petition is an interesting tactic as it presents an opportunity to collect names, emails, ZIP codes and (optionally) cellphone numbers for future mobilization and fundraising efforts.
With the future of Texas' ban on same-sex marriage suddenly in doubt because of court action here and elsewhere, a mobilized conservative grassroots could come in handy down the road.
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Early voting for the Nov. 4 general election begins Monday. According to the secretary of state’s office, more than 14 million Texans have registered to vote, which the state’s elections administrator says is a record high.
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In last week’s issue, we detailed the topline fundraising numbers for the dozen legislative races currently featured in our hotlist of contests to watch.
The sole congressional race on the hotlist — between CD-23 Democratic incumbent Pete Gallego and GOP challenger Will Hurd — wasn’t included because their October quarterly reports weren’t released until this week.
But now they have reported, and here are the numbers:
Gallego reported raising $616,348 in July, August and September. He spent $919,168 and headed into October with $511,464 in cash on hand. For the entire election cycle, Gallego has raised nearly $2.3 million and spent close to $1.8 million.
Hurd’s October quarterly report had not been posted to the Federal Election Commission’s website as of Thursday afternoon. But a Hurd spokeswoman told the Tribune’s Julián Aguilar that he has raised $1,144,179 for the election cycle, or $424,874 for the quarter.
The direct contributions, though, tell just part of the story. CD-23 is the only up for grabs spot in the Texas congressional delegation and has attracted by far the most independent expenditures of any federal race.
According to FEC figures, a little more than $3 million has been spent by outside groups on behalf of CD-23 candidates this election cycle. That’s about three-fourths of the total amount of independent spending on Texas federal races.
Most of the money has been spend on Hurd, either in opposition to or in support of. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent close to $1.4 million to oppose Hurd, while the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent $376,084 in support of Hurd.
Gallego has had more than $1.2 million spent in an effort to defeat him. Two groups, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the NRCC, have both invested in the effort to oppose Gallego.
Other outside Super PACs, such as the Republican-supporting American Action Network, have also spent money on behalf of Hurd.
This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Ebola has become a big political story this October, the back and forth on the state's voter ID law continues just days before voting starts, and the U.S. Supreme Court says Texas abortion clinics should remain open while courts consider the lawsuits challenging that state law.
The uproar over a new television commercial from gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis prompted this week’s questions for our insiders in politics and government.
Start here: The same number of insiders — 37 percent — characterized this as “just another campaign ad” as called it “fair, hard-hitting.” That said, another 24 percent consider the commercial “offensive, out of bounds.”
The insiders think the candidates will benefit about the same amount from the Davis ad — probably not the result the Democrat is hoping for. Thirty-one percent said Davis would benefit most; 29 percent said Republican Greg Abbott, who is attacked in the ad, would benefit most; and 33 percent said neither would gain.
Only a handful of the insiders — 6 percent — said the commercial would change their assessment of the race for governor. And to get a whiff of the distinction insiders make between themselves and voters, we asked whether the commercial would change the average voter's assessment of the race. Asked that way, 25 percent of the insiders said Yes, while 65 percent said it would not sway voters.
As always, we asked for comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:
• "This ad evidences a political tone-deafness about Texas voters that has plagued Wendy Davis since her filibuster."
• "The ad poses a legitimate question about Abbott's hypocrisy. The potential for this attack was recognized by Abbott's team, which was ready to call 'foul' on any mention of Abbott's disability. The ferociousness of the Abbott response carried the day with the media, successfully casting the ad as out of bounds. It was not."
• "It's fair, if accurate. It's hard to know how accurate it is without researching it. Most people will probably disregard or discount it."
• "I am sad to acknowledge the answer. Politics and campaigns have been taken hostage by a bunch of mean, hateful operatives who see nothing as 'out of bounds'. "
• "It is a campaign's job to spin any issue that could be harmful to their candidate. The Abbott War Room deserves an award for dominating the media and social media cycles. What should've been an ad against Abbott, turned into a case against Wendy. This cycle has exposed the Democrat's lack of talent in their political consulting sphere. "
• "Everything Davis states is factual. The Abbott camp may not like the facts, but his record is indisputable. During his time as a judge and AG, he has worked to close the courthouse door on many, shredding the Constitution in the process."
• "Abbott uses his wheelchair in most of his campaign ads. What's the difference?"
• "One can't snicker at 'Abortion Barbie' and then be offended by this. I wouldn't have used that image, but it isn't out of bounds."
• "I'm not sure I understand the manufactured rage about this. We see commercials that routinely suggest that candidates hate America, kill jobs and babies, and raise your taxes more often than they breathe air. How is this ad any different?"
• "Outcome of the race is not really in doubt, only the margin."
• "And the Dems were already concerned about low voter turn out on their side. This does not help them."
• "Most voters are not as hardened to this type of attack as your audience. "
• "Galvanizing, to say the least. "
• "Wendy Davis and the Democrat campaign this cycle has been about turnout, claiming that 'Texas is not a red state, it's a non voting state'. Negative ads are designed to depress turnout and the Davis campaign is running almost exclusively a negative campaign. Just another example of how the Davis campaign says one thing but does another."
• "Texans have a history of turning out in bigger numbers because of such lies told in campaigns."
• "The negative play around the ad probably makes little difference with the voters, but it has hurt Davis with the national press in a meaningful way. The national press viewed this as a Hail Mary effort by Davis and an admission by her campaign that she is losing the race by a large margin. "
Does this change your assessment of the race for governor?
• "Davis is still going to lose but the pundits on Left (Beckel, Mother Jones, MSNBC....) will now blame it on this instead of the fact that Texas voters don't like where she stands on the issues. Clever?"
• "Any insider that still believes there are independents out there who are still undecided should find a new line of work."
• "Yes, if this is sign of things to come from the Davis camp. This is the most fight they've shown in 12 months."
• "Slightly - the fact that Republicans and the Abbott campaign responded quickly and aggressively means they sense the potential for this turning what seemed to be a positive into a negative for their candidate. "
• "It means Abbott likely up by more than people think and Wendy's team is really more nasty than I thought."
• "It got ugly in October just like it always does. "
Do you think it will change the average voter’s assessment of the race for governor?
• "No effect. To change the average voter's assessment, average voters would have to be paying attention. And they ain't. This is a non-story except for the one-half of one percent of the population that live, eat, and breathe politics."
• "Most people will probably disregard or discount it."
• "The average voter will vote by party, not by candidate."
• "As a longtime teacher of political marketing, one ad rarely changes a race, but every now and then o ne does and this has some potential as it is getting much play in the free or earned media which magnifies the impact."
• "Again there is this big disconnect; not enough money and quite frankly I believe the folks outside of Austin are just not mad...the economy is great; folks have jobs; money coming in - life is pretty good in Texas."
Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Amy Beneski, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Walt Jordan, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Mike McKinney, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Richard Murray, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerry Philips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Kim Ross, Grant Ruckel, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.
Two nurses who had helped treat Thomas Eric Duncan, who developed the first case of Ebola ever diagnosed in the U.S., were in turn infected. The news rattled the public's confidence in the precautions taken against spread of the often deadly virus, leading to renewed calls for travel bans from the West African countries that are the epicenter of the outbreak.
Gov. Rick Perry cut short an economic development trip to Europe in order to come home to help manage the state's response to the Ebola infections in Dallas.
Abortion clinics across Texas are cautiously reopening after the U.S. Supreme Court reinstituted much of a stay against enforcement of the state's new abortion law. Those clinics can operate while the constitutionality of requiring clinic doctors to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital and clinics themselves to meet ambulatory surgical center standards is determined.
The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Texas can continue to require photo ID to vote in the upcoming November general elections. A district judge ruled last week against the consitutionality of the state's voter ID law, but the appellate court ruled that the decision came too close to the start of early voting for it to be applied immediately.
A state audit found the governor's office amended Texas Enterprise Fund awards given to private firms 36 times between 2003 and 2013, often in an effort to reduce the penalties the firms had to pay for falling short of job creation goals.
Political People and their Moves
Steve Hughes of El Paso was appointed justice of the 8th Court of Appeals by Gov. Rick Perry for a term to expire at the 2016 general election.
Karen Robinson has announced her retirement as executive director for the Texas Department of Information Resources and the state's chief information officer. Her retirement becomes effective at the end of the year.
GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott won the endorsement of the National Federation of Independent Business/Texas, an organization that advocates for small businesses.
GOP lieutenant governor candidate Dan Patrick won the endorsement of the political arm of the Department of Public Safety Officers Association (DPSOA).
GOP state comptroller candidate Glenn Hegar won the endorsement of the political arm of the Texas Oil & Gas Association.
Democratic HD-94 candidate Cole Ballweg won the endorsement of the Texas Parent PAC, an organization dedicated to electing public education-oriented lawmakers.
GOP SD-18 candidate Lois Kolkhorst won the endorsement of Terri Hall, anti-toll road activist and executive director of the grassroots group Texans Uniting for Reform and Freedom (TURF).
Quotes of the Week
You get down there and you begin to see humanity. You can set up here and watch Fox News and say ‘these alien bastards, we need to shut the border down.’ But what I saw coming through Brooks County was humanity.
Former border militia member Charles Gilbert to the Texas Observer on what led him to rethink the mission
Let me just say that one word in a very long legal document which I know nothing about and would never have read and I'm vilified coast to coast. It's a normal day at the office for me.
Houston Mayor Annise Parker on the outrage at a subpoena issued to five pastors allied against the city's equal rights ordinance that included a request for their sermons
If my brother were to be vice president, I’d have to shave my head.
U.S. Rep. Joaquín Castro, D-San Antonio, on growing speculation that Julián,his twin brother and HUD secretary might be on the shortlist for veep in 2016
You British always sound so darned smart and refined, no matter what you’re saying. And it’s not just because of your many cultural exports: from James Bond and Julie Andrews to Simon Cowell and One Direction.
Gov. Rick Perry, concluding a foreign policy address in London with some admiration for his hosts
