The Texas Weekly Hotlist, General Election 2014

For our list of the most competitive legislative and congressional seats in the state, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a nice loud color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter) and the threat to the incumbent party's hold on the district. Inside each color, the races are listed by district — not by heat.

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Perry's Legal Troubles a Topic of Debate in Kansas

Gov. Rick Perry and Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback in Bettendorf, Iowa, for Perry's government reform speech.
Gov. Rick Perry and Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback in Bettendorf, Iowa, for Perry's government reform speech.

Gov. Rick Perry’s indictment has dominated headlines in Texas, of course. It’s also popped up in Kansas’ gubernatorial election, of all places.

According to The Wichita Eagle, Perry’s friendship with Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback came up in a recent debate at the Kansas State Fair.

Brownback spent part of the debate linking his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Paul Davis, to President Obama.

Davis responded, “If you want to make this election about who I supported for president, you might take a look at your last selection for president. He’s under indictment right now in Texas.”

Davis was referring to Brownback’s support for Perry’s presidential run in 2012. According to the paper, though, Perry’s legal issues are of no concern to Brownback. Perry plans to be in Wichita next week to appear at a Brownback fundraiser.

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The president of the McAllen Chamber of Commerce is not happy about the recent bad press about his home region on account of the surge of unaccompanied children and the subsequent activation of up to 1,000 National Guard troops.

His solution? The state should pay for it.

The McAllen Monitor quoted Steve Ahlenius as saying, “I think it would be much more helpful if the state took money out of the marketing fund to help promote the region in light of all the negative things that have been said over the last four or five months.”

He told the paper he is raising the issue now in advance of next year’s legislative session.

He said the region has been harmed not just by the deployment but also by remarks in recent years by statewide officials that have cast the Valley in a negative light.

“When you think of National Guard deployment, you think of places like Ferguson, Missouri,” Ahlenius told the paper. “Lawlessness and unrest is the wrong image to send about this region.”

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Former state Rep. Delwin Jones is back home after being hospitalized for what he says now was a heart attack, according to a report from Lubbock’s Fox 34 TV station.

Jones, 90, had run in the special election to succeed Robert Duncan in SD-28 and had thrown his name in the ring for the HD-83 seat being vacated by Charles Perry.

Perry won the SD-28 special election, and South Plains GOP leaders selected Dustin Burrows for the HD-83 ballot.

Jones was hospitalized at the end of August, sidelining him in the run-up to the SD-28 election. Jones was first elected to the Texas House 50 years ago as a Democrat. More recently, he represented HD-83 for 22 years as a Republican.

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Here’s the week in fundraising:

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, has raised his profile on the fundraising circuit ahead of the midterms. According to a report in Politico, he is leading a new joint effort among Republican groups to raise $3 million for electoral efforts in battleground states. The story noted that he is kicking in $350,000 from his campaign account and is helping raise another $1 million.

Last week, we reported on a Republican outside group, the American Action Network, spending more than $1 million along with its affiliated super PAC to defeat Pete Gallego in CD-23, the state’s only swing congressional district.

The Dallas Morning News reported this week that the National Republican Congressional Committee has bought another $613,225 in ads for the GOP challenger, Will Hurd.

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Here’s the week in endorsements:

Republican governor candidate Greg Abbott: National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF)

Republican lieutenant governor candidate Dan Patrick: TEXPAC, political arm of the Texas Medical Association; National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF)

Republican state comptroller candidate Glenn Hegar: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz; HOMEPAC, the political arm of the Texas Association of Builders

Republican Railroad Commission candidate Ryan Sitton: Manufacturers PAC of Texas (MPACT), political arm of the Texas Association of Manufacturers

Republican HD-23 candidate Wayne Faircloth: Texas Municipal Police Association (TMPA)

Republican HD-107 state Rep. Kenneth Sheets: Manufacturers PAC of Texas (MPACT), political arm of the Texas Association of Manufacturers

Potential Republican SD-18 candidate Lois Kolkhorst: U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R- Austin; Texas Southwestern and Cattle Raisers Association

Potential Republican SD-18 candidate Gary Gates: former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul

Newsreel: Debates, Todd Staples, TribFest

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Two gubernatorial debates are scheduled for the end of September, along with one lieutenant governor debate. Todd Staples will be the new head of the Texas Oil & Gas Association. And don't forget that The Texas Tribune Festival hits Austin this weekend.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Debates...

We're entering the season of political debates, so we queried our insiders in politics and government about those perennial campaign events.

A large majority said that televised debates in high-profile races are useful to voters. About a third of the insiders said there should be two debates in the campaign for governor; the same number said there should be three. Only a few said no debates are needed, and 15 percent said the candidates should meet four or more times.

The “debate debate” that seems to precede these affairs prompted us to ask whether a candidate’s willingness — or unwillingness — to debate has any effect on voters’ choices: 55 percent said it does not.

Finally, we asked the insiders to rank different ways to get to know more about candidates and debates came in second — behind one-on-one interviews and ahead of town hall appearances and news stories. TV commercials, by the way, came in last in that ranking.

As always, we collected verbatim remarks along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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Are televised debates in high-profile political races useful to voters?

• "They could be useful to voters if the moderator's intent is not to instigate, but to facilitate a debate on issues Texas voters care about."

• "It helps for the voters to see the candidates in other than a political ad, and in situation where the candidates are responding to questions without a script. For the candidates it is an opportunity for either leaving a very positive impression on those viewing the event, or making a major mistake. That may assist voters see how the candidates will function in day to day governance."

• "A cage match with sharp objects would be a better use of time and generate higher ratings. The only people who watch are partisans who have already made up their minds. Real people are watching Honey Boo Boo, Duck Dynasty, and replays of the 1973 Super Bowel highlights."

• "Why risk an 'oops moment' and give your opponent life if your the front runner. Debates are for those currently in second place."

• "While many voters may not tune into the debate, they will most likely hear about it through social media and press coverage. It is a core element of democracy..."

• "They are a circus performance held for the gratification of the media. The public doesn't watch and doesn't care."

• "No, they're not useful to serious voters, because today's debates don't allow a candidate to fully explain his/her position or challenge the other feller's. Sound bites don't educate serious voters."

• "Outside of the political class NO ONE CARES. There is a normal world out there where people live their lives. It does not involve political people. In that world the important things have more to do with the kids getting up and going to school, dad/mom having a bad day at work and what our parents are doing. They don't care about 2 boring people arguing while a bunch of arrogant press sit around acting like they know everything and are above it all. One day the normal people will rise up and both the political people and the press out of work."

• "You have to watch them in order for them to be useful"

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How many statewide televised debates should there be in the race for governor?

• "'Don't care' should have been an option."

• "An hour long debate should provide enough time for each candidate to separate themselves from the other. The problem is that the only people who actually watch the debates are those who already know how they are voting."

• "More than ONE!"

• "One should be plenty."

• "This state has 26 million people in it. The person who governs it must be up to the task. We deserve to see our candidates prove themselves in intellectual combat over the course of at least four encounters."

• "The more the better."

• "Two and only two. Anyone who says the more the better is simply a wonk and glutton for (political) punishment."

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Does a candidate's willingness or unwillingness to debate have any effect on voters' choices?

• "Voters may tune in if there is a debate, but won't care if there isn't one."

• "If the voters are engaged. I hate to bring it up but remember Ted Cruz's duck that used to follow Lt. Governor Dewhurst around?"

• "If a tree falls in the forest...nobody cares about this outside the Austin bubble."

• "It could add to their opponent's narrative on the candidate but for the most part these negotiations are very inside baseball and don't move poll numbers."

• "It probably doesn't, but it should. It's understandable why the leader in the polls might not want to risk tripping up before an audience of voters, but if he or she wants to be the leader of the people, then that person should have enough courage and confidence to face potentially tough situations."

• "Apparently none, see Perry-Hutchison"

• "A candidate's ability or inability to debate is not a relevant qualification for the job. It's not part of the job description. He or she doesn't face weekly questions like the Prime Minister in England."

• "Debates (like newspaper editorials) are relics of the political past. Candidates have proven they can win without showing up for either. Few votes (if any) will be swayed by - what the political media believes to be - the big debate scheduled on a (high school football) Friday night in the Rio Grande Valley. Few people will see it. Even fewer will read about on Saturday."

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Rank these different ways to get to know more about candidates:

• "Question 4 doesn't make sense to me. Are you asking rank the way to get the highest quality information about the candidates, or are you asking rank how it's most likely that you'll get the highest quantity of information about the candidates. The rankings are different."

• "How voters can be informed, people cry a river of tears about being busy, not time to vote, cannot find the info, BS, it is there quit being lazy, and as I said earlier, maybe we need to teach civic engagement in school, no, not that crap about anti all of this and protesting, I mean why you should be engaged, what happens if you are not, how important it is, how little time it takes to vote and be informed."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Jennifer Ahrens, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Snapper Carr, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Gay Erwin, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Matt Matthews, Jason McElvaney, Kathy Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Julie Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Christopher Williston, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Friday, Sept. 19

  • The Fourth Annual Texas Tribune Festival; The University of Texas at Austin (Sept. 19-21)
  • State Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, fundraiser; 303 Pearl Pkwy, San Antonio (7:30-11 p.m.)

Sunday, Sept. 21

  • People's Climate March; 1100 Congress Ave., Austin (11 a.m.-1:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, Sept. 23

  • State Sen. José Rodríguez, D-El Paso, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)

Wednesday, Sept. 24

  • A Conversation With U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar; 501 W. César E. Chávez Blvd., San Antonio (12-1 p.m.)
  • State Rep. Larry Gonzales, R-Round Rock, sporting clays fundraiser; Georgetown (12-5 p.m.)
  • HD-149 debate: 13803 Bissonet, Houston (7 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples has been named president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA), succeeding Rob Looney who is retiring after 26 years with the group.

At a special meeting of the University of Texas System regents on Monday, the board unanimously voted to keep lawmakers out of the room during an investigation into alleged political influence in admissions at UT-Austin. Those lawmakers had sought to sit in on interviews conducted by an external investigator into those admissions procedures.

The State Board of Education took its first vote Wednesday on an amendment that would require teachers in the state to adhere to the state's curriculum standards when teaching Advanced Placement courses. The move is a rebuff to the Common Core curriculum, an attempt to standardize academic standards nationwide.

NASA announced on Tuesday that it will contract with two private companies, Boeing and SpaceX, to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station beginning in 2017. SpaceX recently announced plans to build a commercial spaceport near Brownsville.

The Planned Parenthood Association of Hidalgo County is cutting its ties with the Planned Parenthood Federation of America. The move is an attempt to reclaim state dollars for women’s health care for impoverished women.

Moody's Investors Service described a judge's declaration of the state's school finance system as unconstitutional as a “credit positive,” saying the ruling would compel Texas lawmakers to “redesign the school finance system.”

The Lower Colorado River Authority approved a new plan on Wednesday to manage the Colorado River and its reservoirs, known as the Highland Lakes. The new plan would have a higher "trigger level" on the release of water downstream, raising questions on how coastal rice farmers will fare.

A new study released Monday concluded that oil and gas activities – but not hydraulic fracturing – tainted drinking water wells atop North Texas’ Barnett Shale and Pennsylvania’s Marcellus formation.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin, the Lower Colorado River Authority and Planned Parenthood are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Political People and their Moves

Arturo Cabello Jr. of Brownsville was named by Gov. Rick Perry to the Rio Grande Regional Water Authority for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2017.

Amy Vavra of Mansfield was named by Perry to the Texas Board of Chiropractic Examiners for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2017.

Brenda Swinney of Paige and Myeshi Williams-Briley of Spring were named by Perry to the Manufactured Housing Board. Swinney's term term expires on Jan. 31, 2017, while Williams-Briley's term expires on Jan. 31, 2019.

Jason Baxter has joined the Texas Association of Health Plans as director of government relations. He was previously on the staff of state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, where he specialized in tax, budget and health and human services issues.

Pedro Reyes, executive vice chancellor for academic affairs at the UT System, and Larry Faulkner, president emeritus of UT Austin, will co-chair the 21-member search committee that will advise on the selection of the next president of the UT-Austin campus. The committee includes representatives from the UT System board of regents, presidents of other UT System institutions, the campus deans' council, faculty representatives, UT-Austin staff, the student body, the Texas Exes and external community representatives.

The Texas Department of Public Safety announced a handful of personnel moves:

•    Robert Bodisch was named deputy director of Homeland Security and Services, adding service-oriented divisions to his current oversight of homeland security. He takes over those services functions from Cheryl MacBride, who is retiring.

•    Randall Prince was named assistant director/chief of the Texas Rangers, succeeding Kirby Dendy, who is retiring.

•    Jonathan Percy was named chief information officer and assistant director of the Information Technology Division, replacing Chris Sarandos, who is returning to the private sector.

•    Catherine Melvin has been named interim chief audit executive, following the retirement of Steve Goodson.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin and the Texas Association of Health Plans are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

Voters tend to look at governors the way they hire plumbers or electricians. Do they have a good reputation? Will they take care of the problems? Will they leave you alone otherwise?

John Weingart, director of the Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University, on what people look for in a good state governmental chief executive

Even for Texas, the growth rate is almost unsustainable. This incredible growth has brought lots of people to the state, and the demand for services is growing so fast. At some point, the state is going to have to deal with the income inequality issue.

Dallas Federal Reserve senior economist Pia Orrenius, in remarks to The Associated Press

It just so happens that was a goal we had, but we're not satisfied until we get 100 percent.

DPS Director Steve McCraw on continuing the border surge even after weekly apprehensions hit a goal set in July

It’s not that she’s losing a duel anywhere, it’s that she seems to keep shooting herself in the foot before she even gets the gun out of the holster.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz major donor John Morgan on the loss of support for the DNC chair