Turnout, Tea Party Will Determine Victor in SD-4

State Rep. Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe, insurance company president Gordy Bunch, former state Sen. Michael Galloway and state Rep. Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands, were the four initial candidates in a May 10 special election for Senate District 4. Creighton and Toth are heading to a runoff Tuesday.
State Rep. Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe, insurance company president Gordy Bunch, former state Sen. Michael Galloway and state Rep. Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands, were the four initial candidates in a May 10 special election for Senate District 4. Creighton and Toth are heading to a runoff Tuesday.

From The Woodlands to Beaumont, voters go to the polls on Tuesday to select a new state senator. Their options in the runoff contest run the gamut from conservative Republican state Rep. Brandon Creighton to conservative Republican state Rep. Steve Toth.

The race, then, to fill the vacant seat does not offer much of a clear-cut contrast between the two candidates. In other words, the race could turn on a couple of questions:

•    What will turnout be like?

•    How does the Tea Party break down?

Turnout is often the wild card in special elections. It would seem no less an X-factor here because of the race’s low visibility — both because of the lack of other races and the timing of the contest for the middle of the summer.

The first round of the SD-4 special election on May 10 drew 30,348 voters, about two-thirds of that total coming from Montgomery County, the GOP stronghold that is also home turf for Creighton of Conroe and Toth of The Woodlands.

Creighton is the better funded of the two candidates and in May came the closest among the four-man field to breaking the 50 percent mark to win outright. He took 45.2 percent of the vote, compared with Toth's 23.7 percent.

The general rule of thumb in this scenario is that bigger turnout helps the front-runner. Montgomery County GOP Chairman Wally Wilkerson — who is neutral in the race — said, “The only way for Toth to win is with miserable turnout.”

He said his county’s elections administrator described turnout during early voting as “satisfactory.” Still, Wilkerson was expecting turnout to be down significantly from the first round, estimating it could top out at 15,000 to 20,000 votes before revising that figure afterward to 20,000 or 25,000.

He also expected the majority of votes to come again from Montgomery County.

Both candidates claim significant Tea Party credentials. Toth won success in the first round of the special election despite his relative lack of funding because of his popularity among the grassroots Tea Party voters, to whom he is a hero for knocking off House Public Education Chairman Rob Eissler in the 2012 Republican primary.

Creighton was chairman of the House GOP Caucus and has made defending Texas’ prerogatives under the 10th Amendment a major part of his legislative agenda throughout his tenure. His campaign has also assiduously announced endorsements from local Tea Party groups in recent weeks.

Wilkerson said he took note when the area’s established Tea Party group, the Texas Patriots PAC, endorsed Creighton in the runoff. In the first round, it had recommended three of the four candidates — Creighton, Toth and The Woodlands Township Director Gordy Bunch.

A breakaway Tea Party group, the Montgomery County Tea Party, endorsed Toth, Wilkerson said. Trying to figure out who the Tea Party candidate is in Montgomery County with the proliferation of Tea Party groups as well as the number of candidates who identify themselves as Tea Party-backed is proving a challenge.

“It is a confusing mess for the voters,” said Wilkerson, who this year celebrated his 50th year as county chairman.

Early voting ends today ahead of the Tuesday election.

The seat has been empty since late October, when Tommy Williams resigned to take a job with the Texas A&M University System.

The Carneys Land Dual Gigs

Veteran consultant Dave Carney observes Greg Abbott's campaign event in McAllen, TX  on July 15, 2013.
Veteran consultant Dave Carney observes Greg Abbott's campaign event in McAllen, TX on July 15, 2013.

Political consultant Dave Carney — the longtime brains behind previous Rick Perry’s campaign operations — and his wife have new clients.

LaPolitics, a Louisiana-based political news site, reported on Tuesday that Jay Dardenne, the state’s lieutenant governor who is contemplating a run for governor, has hired Carney as campaign manager.

In addition, the site reported that Dardenne has hired Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, which has counted Ted Cruz, among other Texas politicians, as a client.

The site quoted Dardenne senior consultant George Kennedy as saying of the new hires, “They’re our stable of studs.”

Meanwhile, a U.S. News & World Report story on former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina’s increased presence in New Hampshire noted the hire of Carney’s wife, Lauren, as state director for Fiorina’s UP political action committee.

The UP stands for “Unlocking Potential,” according to the story.

The PAC is focusing efforts in six states, including New Hampshire and Iowa, leading to speculation that Fiorina is weighing a run for the White House in 2016.

The magazine quotes former Mitt Romney adviser Jim Merrill as saying, "I don't think it's a coincidence that one of the states is New Hampshire with a high-profile person like Lauren Carney."

*****

Leticia Van de Putte repeated this week that she will not be a candidate for San Antonio mayor. Widely reckoned the most popular politician in San Antonio, the Democratic state senator has been rumored as a mayoral candidate should she lose her bid for lieutenant governor in the fall.

Needless to say, she would be a formidable candidate, and her entry would upset the plans of others, including state Rep. Mike Villarreal, who has already said he plans to run for mayor.

Following the departure of Julián Castro for a cabinet post in the Obama administration, the city is under a caretaker mayor who will not run in the next election.

“Under no circumstance will I be running for mayor of San Antonio,” Van de Putte told the San Antonio Express-News. “I will be in the Senate come January 2015.”

*****

U.S. Rep. Roger Williams, R-Weatherford, is contemplating a run for a House leadership position. The Hill reported that Williams, who was elected to Congress in 2012, is looking at challenging Oregon Republican Greg Walden for the leadership of the National Republican Congressional Committee after the fall elections.

According to The Hill, Williams won’t have the blessing of the leadership should he try to knock off Walden.

“House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Williams told him of his plans, and Boehner made it clear he would back Walden at a House leadership meeting, a leadership aide tells The Hill.

“Walden told reporters on Tuesday that he ‘fully intend[s] to seek reelection’ as NRCC chairman after this election.”

*****

South Plains institution Delwin Jones said this week that he plans to run for the state Senate seat vacated by Robert Duncan.

If he ends up pulling the trigger on a run for the SD-28 seat, Jones would be getting a rematch against Charles Perry, who ended Jones’ tenure as HD-83 representative in 2010.

Perry was the first to publicly announce for the seat, which came open after Duncan was tapped to become the next chancellor at Texas Tech. Perry formally kicked off his candidacy this week with an event at a Lubbock steakhouse.

Former George W. Bush aide Jodey Arrington is also in the mix for the Senate seat. He issued a statement on the day of Perry’s announcement, saying, “We welcome all candidates and look forward to a serious discussion over who can provide the strongest leadership for ALL of West Texas and deliver results on the critical issues like strengthening our border laws and securing our future water needs.”

Others looking at entering the race include Tech Regent John Steinmetz, Lubbock City Councilman Todd Klein, former Sweetwater Mayor Greg Wortham and Wolfforth resident Eppie Garza.

*****

Former President George W. Bush let it be known this week that he has completed a biography of his father, former President George H.W. Bush.

Newsreel: Border Politics, William McRaven, SD-28 Race

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Gov. Rick Perry is still urging the Obama administration to do something about security on the Texas border, Admiral William McRaven is named the sole finalist for chancellor of the University of Texas System and candidates are popping up to succeed Robert Duncan in the Texas Senate.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Property Taxes...

Texas voters have been needling some of their political candidates this year about property taxes — and it appears that our insiders in government and politics don’t like the levies anymore than voters do.

Property values used for taxation are not fair, according to two-thirds of the insiders. Homeowners ought to get bigger exemptions, according to 57 percent, and 64 percent think the state would be better off replacing local school property taxes with a uniform state property tax, they said.

Asked about different types of properties, the insiders’ conventional wisdom is apparent: 59 percent said residential properties are valued too high, and about the same number said industrial and commercial properties are valued — for taxing purposes — too low.

We asked for comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

.

Do you think the property values used for taxation in Texas are fair?

• "California has a better model (mother of all surprises) where appraisal takes place in limited circumstances including change of ownership, decline in values, and new construction. It is hands down better than the annual guessppraisal and property owner objection process that we all go through now."

• "If it was fair, do you think business lobbyists would be so worked up over industrial/commercial property evaluations?"

• "It's not fair for average homeowners to have more of the burden shoved onto them because commercial property and high-dollar homes are not paying their fair share."

• "Well, my house is valued a couple hundred thousand bucks below the market, so maybe I should say no. But based on my tax bill, you bet I think it's fair. If anything, it's valued too high."

• "By fair, do you mean that commercial/industrial gets all the breaks and games the systems while residential owners get screwed?"

• "We have a system in place to try to determine actual values which is as good as any in the country. No system is better than those who administer it, and that can vary among appraisal districts."

• "Residential values are generally fair, but business estimates are driven way low by professional tax consultants."

• "Mandatory sales price disclosure would certainly improve the process."

• "To be completely fair, sales prices would have to be disclosed."

.

How would you say each of these types of property is valued on the tax rolls, generally speaking?

• "Too high or too low is too simple. The problem Texas has is inequity. There is not an adequate effort to seek uniform property values across the State or even within Appraisal District Boundaries."

• "It's ridiculous that we don't have a law requiring sales price disclosure. Virtually every other state does, and it would end the game of tax assessors trying to ascertain a value without good supporting documentation, and the whole bureaucracy required to address appeals."

• "Question is impossible to answer intelligently. There are over 250 appraisal districts out there and each presents its own facts and situation."

• "Some extremely expensive residential properties are undervalued, and/or take advantage of exemptions that most people don't have (like agricultural use or environmental-protection/natural resources preserve status)."

• "The biggest drivers for homeowner tax bills are increased values (although those increases are capped at 105), over reliance by the state on property taxes, and increased local spending. To blame those increases on undervaluation of other properties is unsupported by the facts."

• "Exclusive country clubs are a good example of commercial/business personal property, depending on its ownership and tax structure, that are dramatically undervalued on tax rolls."

• "Commercial property owners can hire lawyers to game the system. It's way out of whack."

• "Property taxes are horrible. Income and consumption taxes are much better. We should tax income, from the first dollar without exemptions or deductions, and we could replace all of the property taxes in this state with less than 3% on income."

.

Should the state increase the size of property tax exemptions for homeowners?

• "Instead of playing the exemption game, why not reign in the appraisal districts to ensure the appraisal better reflects the market value?"

• "Ultimately it's not about the appraisals but the tax rate. Governments decide how much revenue they need and take it. If appraisal values are lowered, tax rates go up until the desired revenue is achieved. That is a net zero game. This implies that homeowner property tax exemptions are political payoffs for take your pick...veterans, seniors, widows of veterans, keeping bees on your property, etc."

• "If the state would find a different funding source for schools, then we wouldn't need an increase in property tax exemptions."

• "The state would have to gut up and pay it's fair share of public education so that local school districts could increase exemptions, and we all one that's not happening with the current lege."

• "Shifting taxes from voters onto business properties doesn't help do anything positive. Voters need a stronger say in what tax rates are that are imposed on all properties."

• "As a matter of political reality, an increased homestead exemption is probably a needed safety valve for the system"

• "Property tax rates in Texas are high by national standards, but reducing them would require increases elsewhere."

• "Take away the exemption for old people. They use fire, EMS and police more than healthy and young people. Don't they want educated kids who grow up to manage their retirement, provide emergency services and more? Old schmold. If politicians want to find money then have the courage to take on the old geezer lobby!"

.

Would the state be better off with a uniform statewide property tax for schools in place of local school property taxes?

• "A uniform statewide property tax rate for schools would be an improvement, but in order for property taxes to ever be fair, there must be sales price disclosure, proper valuation of commercial property and strict enforcement of businesses who fail to report or under report business property. Oh, and elimination of property tax breaks for luring businesses to certain communities."

• "No AND we also need to roll back Robin Hood. Communities should decide how much to invest in their schools."

• "Local control should be priority. The only reason local school property taxes are too high is because legislators keep reducing education budgets."

• "This is absolutely the correct approach. Alas, ain't gonna happen."

• "I'd say 'yes' but a state property tax for schools would probably hurt local political support for things that schools need."

• "Not in this political climate."

• "This would end the local control all school districts have on property taxes."

• "Local control is always better"

• "Property wealth is not distributed proportionately to the distribution of school children, resulting in unequal access to local funding. Since you can't ship children around, then decreasing local taxing in favor of a statewide tax would help ensure a child has access to adequate resources regardless of where he or she attends school."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Brandon Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, Eva De Luna-Castro, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Thomas Graham, John Greytok, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Matt Mackowiak, Mike McKinney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Nelson Nease, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Propes, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Bryan Sperry, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Jeri Stone, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Peck Young.

The Calendar

Friday, Aug. 1

  • An interactive living memorial honoring the victims of the 1966 UT Tower shootings hosted by the University of Texas' Students of the World chapter; Littlefield Fountain, W. 21st St., Austin (11:30 a.m.)

Sunday, Aug. 3

  • The National Association for Medicaid Program Integrity kicks off its four-day annual conference; 600 E. Market St., San Antonio (Aug. 3-6)

Tuesday, Aug. 5

  • SD-4 Special Runoff Election
  • Desalination summit hosted by state Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi; Ortiz Center, 402 Harbor Dr., Corpus Christi (8 a.m.-1:30 p.m.)
  • The Governing Texas Leadership Forum, presented by GOVERNING magazine and the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs; 500 E. Fourth St., Austin (9 a.m.-4 p.m.)

Thursday, Aug. 7

  • Texas Public Policy Foundation 10th Amendment Seminar, "When the Feds Go Rogue and the States' Duty to Respond"; Legislative Conference Center, Texas Capitol, 1100 Congress Ave., Austin (11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.)
  • State Sen. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, fundraiser; 1122 Colorado St., Suite 2001, Austin (4:30-7 p.m.)
  • The Sixth Annual RedState Gathering begins a four-day meeting, featuring Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott and many others; 200 Main St., Fort Worth (Aug. 7-10)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

***TEXAS WEEKLY TAKES A HOLIDAY*** We're taking a quick summer break. We won't publish the next two weeks, but we'll be back Aug. 22. Thanks for reading!

House and Senate leaders hammered out a $17 billion agreement to fix the problems at the beleaguered Department of Veterans Affairs. Reports of manipulation of wait lists to hide long delays in service led to calls for reform. The House passed legislation on Wednesday, and final passage is all but assured before Congress leaves on its August recess.

Congress will go into its August recess without passing legislation addressing the border crisis. The Senate on Thursday failed to pass its emergency funding bill, which would have provided $2.7 billion to bolster operations at the border. Earlier in the day, the House pulled from the floor a much smaller $659 million funding measure.

Admiral William H. McRaven on Tuesday was named sole finalist for the position of University of Texas System Chancellor. Best known for coordinating the Navy SEAL operation that killed Osama bin Laden, McRaven succeeds Francisco Cigarroa, who is leaving to resume his surgical career.

Former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro on Monday was sworn in to lead the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. He is the agency's 16th secretary.

Attorney General Greg Abbott’s office filed a brief Monday with the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals arguing that Texas’ ban on same-sex marriage is constitutionally sound and a matter for voters, not courts, to decide.

Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Leticia Van de Putte proposed five debates against her GOP opponent, Dan Patrick. The debates, should they occur, would take place in San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Houston and the Rio Grande Valley.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Political People and their Moves

Leon Leal of Grapevine was named by Gov. Rick Perry to the State Board for Educator Certification for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2017.

Ryan Brannan of Austin was named by Perry as commissioner of Workers' Compensation at the Texas Department of Insurance for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2015. He most recently was an adviser in Perry's budget, planning and policy division, focusing on the insurance industry.

Jamie Dudensing is leaving the lieutenant governor's office to become chief executive officer at the Texas Association of Health Plans, taking over for David Gonzales, who is departing for other opportunities to engage in policymaking in Texas.

Bryan Hebert is joining Delisi Communiciations on Aug. 11 as the company's general counsel, and he reports that his duties will involve public policy analysis, legal counseling and lobbying on behalf of clients. He was general counsel for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

Alejandro Garcia was named communications director for the Dan Patrick for Lieutenant Governor campaign. Garcia most recently served as director of border affairs for the Texas secretary of state and counts stints in Rick Perry's 2010 re-election campaign and inaugural committee.

Christann M. Vasquez was named the first president of Seton Medical Center at the University of Texas, the new Austin teaching hospital scheduled to open in 2017. She most recently was executive vice president and chief operating officer of University Health System in San Antonio, where she led efforts to plan and build a new hospital.

Kenneth Dierschke will not seek re-election as president of the Texas Farm Bureau, bringing to a close a 12-year tenure leading the organization. His retirement will become effective at the close of the TFB's annual meeting on Dec. 8.

Disclosure: The Texas Association of Health Plans, the Texas Farm Bureau and the University of Texas at Austin are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

When we responded, we didn’t think people might complain. We’re a Christian organization and we operate on Christian principles.

Don Gibson of Texas Baptist Men on their motivation to help feed and clothe unaccompanied migrant children. Their acts of compassion, however, have drawn complaints.

I think if Bill McRaven can handle the Pentagon politics, he can handle UT politics.

Former defense secretary and former Texas A&M President Bob Gates on the challenges facing incoming University of Texas System Chancellor William H. McRaven

He does bully people. But I bully people, too. In the context of county government, you sometimes have to do that.

District Clerk Gary Fitzsimmons on Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price's bedside manner at meetings.

Saying someone is free to marry in this context is of course a little perverse. It’s like holding someone’s head under water and saying, ‘You’re free to breathe, you’re just not free to breathe air.’

Neel Lane, an attorney challenging Texas' same-sex marriage ban, questioning in February the state's position that the law does not violate everyone's "fundamental right to marry."

Embrace the irony.

Slogan of the recently created Mayday PAC, a Super PAC formed with the goal of diminishing the impact of big political donors.