Runoff Momentum Captured in Polls, Convention

The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll seems to capture neatly the ascendance of Tea Party heroes Ted Cruz and Dan Patrick over the first half of this year, a phenomenon on display as well at last weekend's GOP state convention.

Patrick had the biggest lead of any Republican statewide candidate in the survey. He was up 15 points on Democratic rival Leticia Van de Putte in the contest for lieutenant governor. Cruz, meanwhile, dominated the poll's presidential preference question for 2016, mirroring his strong performance in the straw poll conducted at the convention.

In a headline-grabbing display, Cruz was preferred by nearly 44 percent of those at the convention who chose to participate. That was a bit short of four times the support given to Ben Carson, the conservative columnist and Michigan neurosurgeon, and Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul.

In the UT/TT poll, Cruz was preferred by 33 percent. Paul was second this time, preferred by 9 percent, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee was third with 8 percent.

Gov. Rick Perry is contemplating a second run at the White House in 2016, but his fourth-place finish in both the UT/TT Poll (7 percent) and the convention straw poll (12 percent) don't seem to demonstrate much momentum for him in his home state.

Cruz did not have a primary contest this year, but the UT/TT Poll shows his favorable/unfavorable splits improving significantly since October 2013 and the federal government shutdown. At that point, his favorables were running slightly ahead of his unfavorables — 38/37.

In the February edition of the survey, the split was 43/37. This month, it was 46/34.

Even more interesting is the case of Patrick, whose high visibility campaign for the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor seems to have led to a sharper definition of the candidate in the public's mind. His favorable/unfavorable split has improved from 26/18 in February to 38/24 this month. Those with no opinion of Patrick, meanwhile, dropped from 33 percent to 21 percent, and those with neither a favorable nor unfavorable view dropped from 23 percent to 17 percent.

Contrast that to Van de Putte, whose favorable/unfavorable splits went from 27/22 to 22/18. Interestingly enough, those with no opinion of her rose from 33 percent to 40 percent.

The most readily apparent explanation would be that Patrick enjoyed the benefits of the daily coverage of a hotly contested primary race. Van de Putte was not challenged, and the spotlight on her was minimal throughout the primary season.

So the question going into the Democratic convention in a couple of weeks is this — how much of Patrick's 15-point advantage can be attributed to his greater visibility in recent months? With the attention returning to the Democratic ticket at its state convention, will Van de Putte similarly benefit?

Texans Drop Out of House Leadership Race

U.S. Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Dallas.
U.S. Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Dallas.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's surprise loss on Tuesday in his Virginia primary set off an unexpected contest within the House GOP conference for the leadership position. Dallas Republican Pete Sessions was in the mix for the post, along with California Rep. Kevin McCarthy.

But Sessions withdrew his name from consideration on Thursday evening. According to Politico, Sessions said, "Today, it became obvious to me that the measures necessary to run a successful campaign would have created unnecessary and painful division within our party. At this critical time, we must remain unified as a Republican conference."

Another Dallas-area Republican, Jeb Hensarling, had earlier taken himself out of the running for majority leader. His name has also popped as a potential successor to John Boehner as speaker of the House.

With Sessions out of the running, McCarthy is now the only declared candidate for the leadership post.

The Texas Republican delegation is the largest in the conference and thus could have had some influence on the results of a leadership contest. Todd Gillman of The Dallas Morning News wrote earlier that Sessions and Hensarling met privately on Wednesday to ensure the delegation would not be split. A united front would have been essential for Sessions' chances against McCarthy, who is closely associated with Cantor and Paul Ryan through their Young Guns association.

Ryan had already endorsed McCarthy for majority leader.

*****

Gov. Rick Perry has had a headline-grabbing trip to California, but you'd be forgiven for not thinking it was the same man responsible for all of the headlines.

The Los Angeles Times reported Perry being complimentary of Hillary Clinton, of all people, calling her a "very capable public servant." He also drove a Tesla across the street from the California Capitol, saying the car would look better with a "Made in Texas" bumper sticker even though the only thing the state is in the running for is a battery factory for the electric car manufacturer.

But what really set social media ablaze were his comments to the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco equating homosexuality to alcoholism. The San Francisco Chronicle noted that his comment drew murmurs of disapproval from the crowd, which the paper said contained many Perry supporters.

Also of note was his diagnosis of Cantor's defeat. The Chronicle quoted Perry as saying, "Having been involved in elected office for 30 years now, it's pretty simple: Spend plenty of time in your home district." Interesting words, considering how far Perry was from his home district.

Newsreel: UT/TT Poll, TX GOP Tough on Immigration/Gays

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: The newest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll finds Republican candidates have significant leads over their Democratic rivals heading into the general election season. Also, Gov. Rick Perry and the GOP take hard lines on immigration and homosexuality.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Republicans...

Now that the convention delegates from the Republican Party of Texas have packed up and gone home, we asked our insiders about the convention’s work and its effect on various public officials.

The big winner was U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz; in fact, he was the only official who, in the eyes of the insiders, got more help than harm out of the convention in Fort Worth. The biggest losers? Dan Patrick, the Houston senator running for lieutenant governor, and Gov. Rick Perry, who was at his last state convention as a state officeholder. The biggest responses for most candidates was “No effect.”

The insiders overwhelming said that the GOP’s platform planks on immigration and on “reparative therapy” for homosexuals hurt the party. Possibly for those same reasons, 72 percent said the Republican conventioneers created some opportunities for the Democrats in this election year.

We collected verbatim comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling: 

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How did the state Republican convention affect the political prospects of these candidates and officials?

• "Cruz, Patrick, and Paxton bet correctly that the TEA Party is alive and well in Texas; Straus is fortunate that the D's will continue to support his speakership; and Governor Perry will need to explain how a viable presidential candidate comes in 4th in his own state party's straw poll."

• "The folks who pay attention to and/or attend the convention made up their mind a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away."

• "The vocal minority has been allowed to takeover operations of the TX GOP. The 5.5% of voters finding it worthwhile to actually vote are getting to write the rules for the majority. The silent majority seemingly prefers to simply complain about the current state of affairs as opposed to doing something about it (i.e. voting). Our low voter turnout is an embarrassment!"

• "Stars were Cruz first, Patrick second -- Cruz is the king of the party -- Patrick is less well-known, so the party got to see him more. Abbott made less of a splash, but no negative -- lots of behind the scenes worry expressed about Paxton's legal problems. Straus is lucky he wasn't booed. Perry reminded everyone why they loved him -- but still not enough to outshine Cruz."

• "Generally, people forget about the state convention as soon as it is over and the breathless next reports about how far right the platform has slipped off the front page. Platforms rarely affect election outcomes."

• "Tea Party type republicans couldn't 'hurt' themselves by adopting whacko positions. They like 'em some Ted Cruz and dog whistle racist politics and no position is too far. Straus has a limited future and Perry has ironically left at the train station holding his bags in his hands."

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Does the Texas GOP’s position on immigration hurt or help the Party?

• "The GOP loses, like Cantor, when they go against the grassroots. This will keep those eager folks eager to go back to the polls in November."

• "ALL Texans, especially those near the border, want a secure border first."

• "Words matter and the rhetoric is too harsh and divisive. That being said getting the border secure is more important than ever"

• "Our nation is a land of immigrants, yet there are some of our current immigrants who don't want any other kind of immigrant to stick around, which ironically includes the very immigrant whose family land was stolen years before when the current immigrants were immigrating to this land."

• "For years Democrats did everything they could to elect more Republicans; Republicans are simply returning the favor."

• "Texas has been the thinking leaders on this issue for decades -- we have now thrown that away in favor of this reactionary stance -- very bad move on the part of the Tea Party."

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Does the Texas GOP’s endorsement of 'reparative therapy' for homosexuals hurt or help the party?

• "No effect. Media all worked up about this more than voters. Come on...how many gay votes would GOP gain if that wasn't in the party platform?"

• "Everybody has a gay relative. The term reparative implies they are broken and that's not the case."

• "Makes them sound stupid, and will push some tea types who are more closely aligned with fiscal conservatives and libertarians out of the tent."

• "How many days did it take Houston residents to gather signatures to put a provision on the ballot to push back on the activist homosexual mayor's agenda? Reparative Therapy is VOLUNTARY. It was necessary to address it because Texans don't want it outlawed as has happened in NJ and CA."

• "This confirms that the Texas GOP is anti-science and antithetical to an educated society. This should make the RNC run like hell from a Dallas 2016 Convention proposal."

• "Why is this even a topic of conversation? Is the PC rule now that if you're straight but want to be gay, that's good; but if you're gay and want to be straight, that's bad? This whole issue is silly."

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Did the Texas Republican conventioneers create any political opportunities for Texas Democrats?

• "Maybe, but the dems are not ready to seize it...”

• "Just like Democrat convention creates opportunities for the GOP. The crazy right and loony left control the conventions."

• "They will not take advantage of them though. There is a huge opportunity for moderate D's to make headway for their party but the party is mostly run by party purists, Ann Richards dinosaurs and people slightly right of Lenin. Democrat incumbents are being criticized by other Democrats for taking money from donors that also contribute to Republican members. They have no chance this time."

• "Yes, but the opportunity is small. Like the number of democratic voters."

• "I'll be optimistic and say they did, but I don't think the Democrats realize how far behind they are in regards to voters. Texas has ALWAYS been a conservative state, even during the hey days of the democrats, but that party has yet to adapt to the changing ways of our political state."

• "Sure. But going from 47% to 48% still wont win them statewide elections."

• "No one pays any attention to state party conventions except the reporters paid to attend them and the true believers who pay to attend them. Next topic, please."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Phillip Martin, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Ed Small, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Sunday, June 15

  • Father's Day

Monday, June 16

  • Fundraiser for state Rep. John Zerwas, R-Fulshear; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (5-7 p.m.)

Tuesday, June 17

  • House Speaker Joe Straus headlines a Rio Grande Valley Chamber of Commerce-hosted "Coffee Conversation"; 118 Paseo Del Prado, Edinburg (9 a.m.)
  • Fundraiser for Texas Supreme Court Justice Jeff Brown; 3262 Reba Dr., Houston (6-7:30 p.m.)

Wednesday, June 18

  • Fundraiser for Republican attorney general candidate Ken Paxton; 3211 Stratford Hills Lane, Austin (5-7 p.m.)

Thursday, June 19

  • Fundraiser for Republican lieutenant governor candidate Dan Patrick; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Wendy Davis campaign manager Karin Johanson was replaced by state Rep. Chris Turner, D-Arlington, in a significant shake-up at the top of the gubernatorial hopeful's organization. Johanson's national experience was highlighted when she was brought on board. In Turner, Davis now has a campaign manager with experience in waging Texas campaigns in territory unfriendly to Democrats.

A new audit shed new light on the scope of the problems with wait times at VA facilities nationwide with more than 57,000 patients waiting three months or more for an appointment. Specialty clinics in Harlingen and McAllen had the worst wait times in the nation.

Attorney General Greg Abbott has asked the Obama administration for $30 million for state-based border security operations in response to a recent influx of minors entering the country illegally and overwhelming facilities on this side of the border.

The League of United Latin American Citizens filed suit against the state and a couple of school districts, alleging that not enough has been done to help English language learners. The action is a continuation of a legal battle over the quality of language instruction programs begun in 2006.

The Texas Racing Commission cast a preliminary vote in favor of historical racing, which would allow tracks to introduce betting on already conducted races transmitted on video terminals. The tracks have long been asking for something that could help boost their sagging revenue but critics said the devices are just slot machines going by another name and are illegal.

Political People and their Moves

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst was awarded the French Legion of Honor, Chevalier Rank, at a ceremony on Utah Beach commemorating the 70th Anniversary of the D-Day landing in Normandy. Dewhurst's father, a WW II bomber pilot, led the last D-Day bombing on Utah beach.

Carol L. McDonald will step down as the president of the Independent Colleges and Universities of Texas on Sept. 30. A former staffer for Lt. Bill Hobby, McDonald led the ICUT for 32 years. Ray Martinez, currently the chancellor of the online Western Governors University Texas, has been named to succeed McDonald.

Veronica "Ronnye" Vargas Stidvent has been named the new chancellor of WGU Texas, succeeding Ray Martinez, who is leaving to head the Independent Colleges and Universities of Texas.

Jo Cassandra Cuevas is stepping down today as executive director of the House Democratic Caucus to take a position on the public affairs team at AT&T.

Don Baylor is leaving the Center for Public Policy Priorties at the end of July to take a position with the Urban Institute in Washington, D.C., in the fall. Baylor joined CPPP in 2004 and founded the think tank's economic opportunity team. In addition, he serves as a Consumer Advisory Board member at the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Deaths: Jack R. Woolf, who was president of the University of Texas at Arlington from 1959-68 and oversaw its move from the Texas A&M System to the UT System. He was 90.

Disclosure: AT&T, Texas A&M University and the University of Texas are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. Veronica Stidvent is a donor to the Tribune and a Tribune board member. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

The conventional wisdom was the campaign wasn’t going anywhere and Wendy couldn’t win. She had to shake up the campaign and change the narrative.

Former Democratic Land Commissioner and 1998 nominee for governor Garry Mauro on the staff shakeup in the Wendy Davis campaign

It’s never a good sign when less than six months away from election, you fire the head coach.

Rice University political science professor Mark Jones, suggesting Davis' switch of campaign managers signaled deeper problems inside the campaign

Americans know that liberal media bias is a major problem in our country.

U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Austin, who added that "the national liberal media pushes the agenda of the administration."

It’s rare that you would see a fundraiser at a Ruby Tuesday or a Chipotle. You’ve got to spend money to raise money.

GOP fundraiser Lisa Spies on why politicians raise money at steakhouses and not under the Golden Arches

I may have the genetic coding that I'm inclined to be an alcoholic, but I have the desire not to do that, and I look at the homosexual issue the same way.

Gov. Rick Perry, telling a group in San Francisco how he equates homosexuality to alcoholism