The Texas Weekly Hot List

For our biennial feature on the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat, and those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer = hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 4 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: We added the Republican primary in HD-60 to the list; it's in the orange zone. 

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Campaign Filings: The Best of the Rest

Other campaign finance storylines swirl underneath the headline-grabbing exploits of the major statewide candidates. Here are a few more hits from this week's campaign reports:

•    A couple of extraordinarily high-dollar races are developing in north Dallas County. SD-16 incumbent John Carona, R-Dallas, reports spending close to $1.6 million in the closing months of 2013. More than half of that, or $843,846, went to Allyn Media for advertising. His opponent in the March primary election, Don Huffines, spent roughly $640,000. Most of that spending, about $540,000, went to three companies — Scott Howell & Company, C3 Strategies and Candidate Command — for advertising and mail. And the race could get more expensive. In December, the candidates lent themselves a combined $700,000, showing an ability and willingness to self-finance their campaigns to the utmost. Huffines made three loans totaling $500,000, and Carona made a $200,000 loan.

And in the campaign to fill the House seat being vacated by Dan Branch, three Republican challengers are poised to make HD-108 one of the chamber's most expensive seats. Chart Westcott accounts for much of this. He raised $330,543 and has spent $504,578 already. And he has $493,665 still in his campaign account, meaning he still has plenty of ammunition. Morgan Meyer, meanwhile, has raised $292,218 and has $219,456 in his campaign account after spending $97,606. The third candidate in the race, Court Alley, has raised $99,863 and has spent $33,925, leaving a campaign balance of $71,681 heading into the New Year.

•    Another expensive race is shaping up in Donna Campbell's SD-25, which stretches from northern Bexar County all the way into southern Travis County. Campbell and her two challengers for the Republican nomination, former Bexar County Commissioner Mike Novak and former San Antonio City Councilwoman Elisa Chan, have each spent between $160,000 and $170,000. The incumbent reports $289,982 still in her campaign account. Chan, meanwhile, has $202,630 left to spend before March, helped by a $200,000 loan she made to her campaign in October. Novak, though, spent nearly all of what he brought in and reports $12,583 in cash on hand.

•    Former Midland Mayor Mike Canon reports spending nearly $175,000 in his bid to unseat SD-31 incumbent Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo. Canon raised $153,164 with a donor list led by a $50,000 contribution from Midland oil and gas investor Kyle Stallings. Midland donors dominated the top echelons of Canon's big-dollar contributors. Seliger, meanwhile, raised $266,601. The top of his donor list was dominated by the kind of PAC money that usually flows to friendly incumbent. The biggest single donation to the Senate Higher Ed chairman was $22,125 from the University of Houston's political arm.

•    Skip Ogle, who is challenging Matt Schaefer, R-Tyler in the HD-6 primary, reports $102,100 in contributions, a more than respectable sum for someone challenging an incumbent. The biggest donor was Curtis Mewbourne, owner of Mewbourne Oil, who gave Ogle $20,000. The challenger's biggest contributors were mostly local donors. The incumbent, meanwhile, reported raising $157,735, the biggest chunk of which came in the form of an $89,000 contribution from conservative advocacy group Empower Texans. Schaefer also reported spending $178,792 to close out 2013.

•    HD-92 incumbent Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, reported raising $188,576, most of which reflects what he raised during his July 29 Defend Texas Liberty Moneybomb. He goes into 2014 with nearly $220,000 left in his campaign account. He faces HEB ISD trustee Andy Cargile in the March GOP primary election.

•    And in the North Texas seat being vacated by House Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, a lively four-candidate scrum is competing for the GOP nomination. Waxahachie attorney John Wray was the biggest spender at the close of 2013. Buoyed by a series of loans he made to his campaign totaling $50,059, Wray spent $66,519. Midlothian computer executive Duke Burge also self-financed his campaign to a large degree in the early months. He made loans to his campaign totaling $36,590 and spent $30,591. Tea Party favorite TJ Fabby raised $24,625 and spent $28,146, leaving $5,644 in his campaign account. Jake Ellzey raised $25,330 and spent $10,708, leaving $17,684 in his account.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Contributions...

With campaign finance reports for the last six months of 2013 landing at the Texas Ethics Commission this week, we asked the insiders for some observations.

Right off the bat, a big majority said that the contribution totals in those reports are, in their view, a good measure of a campaign’s relative strength. Size matters, apparently.

Most of the insiders think the motivations of donors are balanced, more or less, between ideological and electability interests. But 26 percent said the donor’s opinion of who will win a race was prevalent, while 19 percent said contributions generally reflect the ideology of the donor.

Once they’ve got that money, which form of advertising is best for campaigns? It depends on the race, if the comments from the insiders are any indication, but asked to name a favorite, most chose TV, followed by mail, followed — distantly — by social media, yard signs, radio, door hangers and websites.

Finally, now that the steady flow of endorsements is underway, we asked about testimonials in primary elections. Trade group endorsements led the pack, followed closely by slate cards/scorecards.

As always, we collected verbatim remarks from the insiders and a full set of those is attached. A sampling follows below.

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Are contribution totals in campaign finance reports a good measure of a campaign’s relative strength?

• "The campaign totals best reflect the ability of candidate to cover the media and compete, but doesn't reflect the strength of campaign with the voters."

• "It's A factor, but not THE factor. We all know that without money you can't reach voters, but a total amount at this stage cuts both ways. How many overall donors? What percentage are Texas donors vs. out of state donors (looking at you, Wendy Davis)? High dollar vs. low dollar (looking at you, Greg Abbott)? And don't forget about the ability of a candidate to loan his/her campaign a huge sum of money down the stretch (or secure a massive contribute down the stretch)--that money is there and ready to be used, but it might not show up on an early finance report which could counter any perception of it being a weak campaign."

• "Relative strength is right. If it's your own money, or money from people who can't vote for you or one HUGE check from someone then things are not that strong."

• "Yes, if strength is defined as money instead of competence, vision, and leadership."

• "Tony Sanchez and David Dewhurst have shown that the answer has to be 'no.' Not having any money is obviously crippling. But once a campaign has 'enough' it is competitive and the money differential is less important. For example, in the AG primary Branch's opponents will have enough and therefore Dan is likely to lose in a runoff."

• "If you don't have money, you're generally in trouble, so yes."

• "It is just as important to know the source. Totals do not tell the full story."

• "Used to be; but with the rise of the Tea Party, the variables are more numerous."

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Which of the following statements do you think is most true?

• "Depends on the crowd. Some are ideological donors (especially the smaller dollar donors), while others are practical (like lobby money)."

• "Grassroots money = donor ideology. Lobby money = likely win."

• "If there was more individual PACs contributing to the candidate than individuals then I would have to say it's the opinion over ideology."

• "It is always advantageous for an insider to be on the winning team when roaming the capitol halls for a living."

• "Contributions reflect passion. Some are passionate for a cause and some are passionate about making money via law or the public trough."

• "Depends if you're contributing for future influence or as a voter. I think that one is easy enough to figure out."

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Which kind of advertising is most important in a primary race?

• "A great deal depends on the level of the race. High profile 'top of the ticket' races need TV while down ballot, low visibility contests are better suited to direct mail and direct voter contact."

• "Generally speaking, TV. But for local races or in a primary with relatively few voters, personal connections are more important. IE- if it's possible for the candidate to meet all of the voters in his/her primary, that would be more important than a TV buy. That's obviously not possible statewide."

• "Depends on the size of the race and where it is. In some rural areas newspaper ads can be important. Doorhangers are usually not important unless the candidate is out hanging them on doors and gets to meet people. Radio can be good in rural areas were there's little satellite radio penetration."

• "Nothing moves voters like TV."

• "TV will always be the best if one can afford enough of it."

• "Legislative races, good direct mail is king."

• "In rural areas, newspapers are still the best advertisement."

• "The most important advertising is the medium your campaign consultant is selling."

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Which kind of testimonial is most helpful in a primary campaign?

• "I believe that locally known and trusted persons within the community offer the best endorsements."

• "Depends on the trade group and race, but they're usually spot on. For example, I care more about what the Farm Bureau says about the Ag Commissioner candidates than what the teachers do."

• "Paid to the order of________ is the most important testimonial."

• "Local Activists and local electeds for those running for State Representative; Both local and state officeholder endorsements for those running for State Senate; Trade Group endorsements for statewide."

• "Hard core primary voters in both parties want to know who their groups are endorsing. Right to lifers follow theirs and Annie's listers follow theirs. Business vs. labor...etc."

• "Endorsements are way overrated. What matters most are the attitudes and opinions of the people closest to you whom you know and respect."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Chris Britton, Blaine Bull, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Richard Hardy, Susan Hays, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Marti Johnson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Tom Kleinworth, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, J. McCartt, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Kathy Miller, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Richard Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Royce Poinsett, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Newsreel: Campaign Money, Abbott, Davis, Dewhurst

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: 2014 candidates opened the kimono of their campaign finances this week. Who has what and who's arguing over the numbers? 

The Calendar

Saturday, Jan. 18

  • Fundraiser for state Rep. Jonathan Stickland; Hurst Convention Center (5:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, Jan. 21

  • Fundraiser for state House candidate Al Hoang; Ocean Palace, Houston (6-7:30 p.m.)
  • Fundraiser for state Rep. Bennett Ratliff; Austin Club (4:30-6 p.m.)

Thursday, Jan. 23

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Big money donors dominated the campaign finance filings by the two leading candidates for governor, Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy Davis. Abbott demonstrated his fundraising prowess over the last half year with 25 six-figure donations, including a total of $900,000 from the late Dallas billionaire Harold Simmons. And Davis scored not one but two million-dollar donations — from Austin doctor Carolyn Oliver and from the Mostyn Law Firm of Houston.

An eagerly expected appearance by U.S. Senate candidate Steve Stockman at a Tarrant County Tea Party meeting Monday evening turned into a bust when he was a no-show. A stand-in said the congressman, who recently returned from Egypt, was stuck in traffic.

The plight of a pregnant North Texas woman being kept on life support against her family's wishes captured headlines nationwide and is stirring political debate in a state immersed in competitive primary races.

After reviewing University of Texas System Regent Wallace Hall's handling of information that may be confidential under federal student privacy laws, outside lawyers for the system concluded that no prosecution was warranted.

Texas is preparing for a new drug screening procedure required of applicants for unemployment benefits, but the federal Labor Department has yet to set the parameters.

Political People and their Moves

John W. Townes III of Granbury was named by Gov. Rick Perry to the Texas Lottery Commission for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2015.

George W. Brown III of Beaumont, Bradley "Brad" Rutledge of Orange and James Scott of Beaumont were named by Perry to the Jefferson and Orange County Board of Pilot Commissioners for terms to expire Aug. 22, 2015.

James “Jim” Jeffers of Nacogdoches was named by Perry to the Texas Municipal Retirement System Board of Directors for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2015.

Agustin "Gus" Lucas Reyes is the new director of the Baptist General Convention of Texas' Christian Life Commission. Reyes has been with the BGCT since 2002 with his most recent position being director of affinity ministries and Hispanic Education Initiative.

Adrianna Cuéllar Rojas is the new president and CEO of United Ways of Texas. She began in the position on Jan. 1, succeeding Karen R. Johnson who helmed to organization for 13 years. Rojas came to UWT from The Meadows Foundation, where she served as senior program officer since 1997.

James W. Prescott is the new head of the Texas Medical Association Insurance Trust. He replaces Larry G. Stein who stepped down last month after 29 years of service.

Quotes of the Week

I personally think this is the wrong time from our standpoint to go forward on immigration. It's an election year. I mean, Texas is in the middle of primaries right now.

U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, saying this year is the wrong time to push for an immigration overhaul

The problem for the Davis campaign is that Texas voters have preferred lower taxes to better schools since Sam Houston was a boy.

Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson on making the case to invest more in public education

At some point, Abbott is going to unleash the hounds of TV ads on her. Her ability to respond, dollar for dollar, is going to be really important.

GOP political consultant Matt Mackowiak on the significance of a $10 million campaign finance report from Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis

I see myself as serving one more term. People advise 'never say never,' but I'm leaner today than when I started in politics. I need to go back and earn some money.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst on whether his re-election bid is his last

They need some basic plumbing lessons.

U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler, on judges who have ruled in favor of same-sex marriage