The Texas Weekly Hot List

For our biennial feature on the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. An asterisk indicates an open seat, and those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer is hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 4 primary approaches. Let us know what you think. 

Changes this week: We moved several open seat races (CD-36, HD-53, HD-58) from red to orange, the better to highlight races with incumbents who face serious challenges, and we moved the SD-16 race into the red zone for the same reason.

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For Some, It's Already the End of the Road

Activists converge at the south steps of the Texas Capitol as the second special session begins July 1, 2013.
Activists converge at the south steps of the Texas Capitol as the second special session begins July 1, 2013.

It's this time of year when politicians of all stripes learn if they have won the political equivalent of the lottery, which we will define as having avoided any major party challengers in the primary and general elections.

This year, 74 members, or nearly half the Texas House, already have their tickets punched for Austin. They face either no opposition or third-party candidates in the fall. The ranks of those who are living free and easy this year is split nearly evenly between Republicans (39) and Democrats (35).

Another 29 GOP House candidates have a free pass through the party primaries, while 45 Democratic House candidates also have easy passage through the primaries.

Uncontested races are harder to come by in Texas Senate and congressional races, but they can be found there as well.

Four Senators — three Republicans and a single Democrat (Kirk Watson) — have no opposition through the general election. Another four Republican Senate candidates and six Democratic Senate candidates have free sailing through the primaries.

Only one congressional Republican — Jeb Hensarling — is clear through the general election, but another 15 GOP candidates have their nomination already sewed up. On the Democratic side, five candidates are assured of victory through the general election, while another 18 are assured of their party's nomination.

The only area of the ballot where every candidate must put in some work are for the statewide offices. Only one Republican candidate — Supreme Court Justice Jeff Boyd — has a clear path through the primaries, and eight Democrats have already locked up their party's nomination. But no statewide office will be uncontested in the general election.

To view the up-to-date election brackets for the 2014 election, click here.

It's Cold in Texas, but the Politics Are Hot

Political campaigns across the state wasted no time kicking into high gear as the calendar flipped on the New Year.

In an early bombshell, Empower Texans, one of the state's most aggressive conservative advocacy groups, made an early statement about its intentions to be a big player in the upcoming GOP party primaries. It disclosed that it gave $250,000 each to lite guv candidate Dan Patrick and AG candidate Ken Paxton. The giving was funded entirely by Midland oilman Tim Dunn, who contributed $900,000 to the PAC. Semi-annual reports, which cover campaign activity over the final six months of 2013, are due Jan. 15, but they can be filed early.

Another candidate for attorney general, Dan Branch, announced that he will report $4.9 million in cash on hand in his forthcoming campaign finance report.

Campaigns also continued to announce high-profile endorsements. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst said that he has earned the endorsements of the state's homebuilders and doctors. One of Dewhurst's rivals for lite guv, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, said he has the support of former U.S. Reps. Dick Armey and Ron Paul.

David Barton, the founder of WallBuilders, confirmed he has endorsed two candidates for attorney general — Paxton and Barry Smitherman. There is apparently no corollary to the biblical advisory against "serving two masters" in the world of political endorsements.

The attacks kept coming in the GOP U.S. Senate primary as well. A super PAC supporting incumbent John Cornyn launched ads against his highest-profile challenger, U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman. Those ads, probably not coincidentally, are running in Stockman's backyard, the Houston and Beaumont-Port Arthur media markets.

In other Stockman news, the Tea Party favorite dropped a misleading endorsements page from his campaign website. The page had claimed endorsements by, among others, Ted Nugent and conservative activist Howard Phillips, who died months before Stockman launched his campaign.

In the lite guv race, Patrick attacked Dewhurst for dawdling in naming a new Senate Finance chair to replace former state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands. Patrick helpfully suggested Sen. Jane Nelson, R-Flower Mound, for the job. He also chided Dewhurst for delaying interim charges on education topics. Patrick just happens to be the chairman of the Senate Education Committee. Dewhurst on Thursday released those education interim charges at a Dallas appearance.

And in an important developement in hot sauce news, state Rep. Jason Villalba, R-Dallas, pressed the creators of Sriracha to move operations from California to Texas.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Election Dates...

For the first Inside Intelligence of 2014, we asked the insiders about some basic election policy, such as when the primaries should be held.

We started with a recent Republican proposal to move the presidential primaries to an earlier date in hopes of getting Texas into the mix before the party’s nominee in other states. The insiders split down the middle, with 8 percent saying they are undecided.

What about moving the March primaries to a date later in the year, a proposal advanced by advocates of a shorter election cycle? The insiders didn’t like that one, with 63 percent saying the March date is just fine.

Seven in ten insiders said the state should continue to allow straight-ticket voting, though some took exception to it in judicial races in particular. Likewise, 70 percent said the state should allow Texas citizens to register to vote online.

We collected verbatim comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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Should Texas move its presidential primaries to an earlier date to ensure that the nominations are still contested by the time the candidates get here?

• "It's so expensive to run a primary campaign in a state the size of Texas that moving the date up virtually ensures the nominations will go to well-funded, establishment candidates every time."

• "The only option would be if the Presidential ballot was separate from the rest of the party primary races. Then, it might be acceptable."

• "Year round politics is destroying the democracy. There needs to be time to govern. After all, that is the point of the jobs."

• "Texas should move up in order to become a bigger player in presidential politics. Currently, Texas is good for fundraising purposes and not mining votes. We need the candidates to spend that good ole Texas money on communicating their views and positions to Texas voters. Turn those Texas dollars over here in the state."

• "I kinda like the idea because how in the Hell did this country allow Iowa and S. Carolina to be king makers?"

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Should Texas primaries be held later in the year to shorten the biennial political season?

• "As we saw in the Dewhurst / Cruz race, later primaries give insurgents more time to get their message to the voters and minimizes the role establishment money plays in selecting the winner."

• "I always liked the May primaries. It kept the primary battles from bursting through the holiday season."

• "With so many members in safe general-election districts, but not in safe primaries, the sooner they can get their primaries done, the sooner they can get back to governing, or earning a living, or doing whatever they do between sessions."

• "It's never shortened. The primary will just live longer."

• "Current system is ferociously pro-incumbent.... since election usually starts Jan. 1, challengers in this big state don't really have an opportunity to make their case"

• "The way it is now is fine."

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Should Texas continue to allow straight-ticket voting?

• "Parties invest money and effort vetting candidates and building their brand and they should be able to rely on that in down ballot races."

• "There have been a lot of good candidates and officeholders from both parties defeated because of straight ticket voting. Accordingly, we have elected a lot of people who should have NEVER held public office as a result of straight ticket voting."

• "Nearly half Texas voters use this option. Why should it be taken away from them? By the way a majority of Straight Ticket Voters are Republicans statewide so why would they want to repeal this option?"

• "For everything but Judges."

• "Would abolishing straight-ticket voting mean a more informed electorate? I doubt it."

• "It should not be unconstitutional to be too lazy to think."

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Should Texas citizens be permitted to register to vote online?

• "There is more integrity in the process by requiring voters to go to polling places or to mail in paper ballots than there is in the vagaries of the internets."

• "Register to vote? Yes. Cast a ballot? No!!!"

• "After what foreign hackers just did to Target, one can only imagine what they'd do to American election processes."

• "Even better, let's have day-of-election registration. Making the wild assumption that we all want more people to participate."

• "Technology has developed to allow this to be a viable option."

• "The web is vulnerable to hacking.... all voting procedures should be kept away from it."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Rick Cofer, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Chad Crow, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Richard Hardy, Ken Hodges, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Russ Keane, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Debra Medina, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Karen Reagan, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Kim Ross, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Newsreel: Campaign Finance, Ad Wars, Hot List

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Campaign finance reports are starting to come in, the Winter Olympics may get in the way of ad time for candidates and our election Hot List is back.

The Calendar

Monday, Jan. 13

  • Texas Business Roundtable candidate forum; Four Seasons, Austin (9 a.m.-4 p.m.)

Wednesday, Jan. 15

  • Regional premiere of Watershed followed by a panel discussion at Stateside at the Paramount; Austin (6-9 p.m.)
  • Fundraiser for state Rep. Dan Huberty; Carrabba’s, 3115 Kirby Drive, Houston (5:30-7 p.m.)

Thursday, Jan. 16

  • TribLive with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst; The Austin Club (7:30-9 a.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

State Sen. Wendy Davis, in her first major policy proposal as a candidate for Texas governor, said that she would increase the supply of teachers and give them more money. But she didn't say how she'd pay for the new programs. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst gave lawmakers education-related interim charges that include studying technology's impact on higher education and evaluating public school students' writing scores on state assessments.

Oral arguments were made before a three-judge panel from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on the state's new abortion regulations. While Texas awaits a decision, the strict new rules that have forced some facilities to stop performing the procedure remain in effect.

A new PAC will allow Texans for Education Reform, which became a lobbying powerhouse during the 2013 legislative session, to put resources toward candidates for office.

After a contentious town hall meeting concerning the possible links between wastewater injection and a spate of North Texas earthquakes, locals said they cannot afford to wait for state regulators to address the issue. The Texas Railroad Commission later said it would hire a seismologist to research the link between earthquakes and disposal of oil and gas waste in injection wells.

U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, may have already begun receiving donations in Bitcoin since embracing the private virtual currency. That puts him firmly in a gray area of campaign finance law. Also, the Sunlight Foundation found $16,000 in donations that were made to Stockman's re-election campaign committee that the committee did not report.

A cold snap gripped much of Texas, leading to a brief threat of rolling blackouts. The state's electric grid operator to ask consumers to reduce their energy use and the feared outages never materialized. In related news, the Texas Oil and Gas Association, the state’s largest and oldest petroleum organization, told regulators it opposes an overhaul of the wholesale energy market. The new market design is intended to ensure enough capacity in the grid to make blackouts more infrequent.

Political People and their Moves

Julie Linn is stepping down as Gov. Rick Perry's education adviser to take over as executive director of Texans for Education Reform.

Dan Allen Hughes Jr. of San Antonio has been named the new chairman of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Commission by Gov. Rick Perry. His term expires at the pleasure of the governor. In addition, Thomas "Dan" Friedkin of Houston was designated chairman emeritus of the commission.

Former Texas Secretary of State John T. Steen Jr. of San Antonio was named by Perry to a spot on the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. His term expires on Aug. 31, 2019.

Chance Sampson has been hired as director of public affairs in the regulatory and public affairs division of Entergy Texas. He has served on the staffs of Comptroller Susan Combs and state Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, as well as the Senate Subcommittee on Higher Education under state Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas.

Bo Gilbert was chosen as the Insurance Council of Texas' chairman of the board of directors. His term began Jan. 1. Also, Robert Zeman was elected vice chairman, Lyndell Haigood was elected treasurer and Tom Fitzpatrick was elected secretary.

Martha Zeiher has been named the Hill Country Land Trust's first executive director. The trust works in a 19-county area with landowners to preserve their property through land easements.

GOP U.S. Sen. candidate Ken Cope has named Greg Jessen, a Tea Party activist and political organizer in West Virginia, as his campaign manager.

Deaths:

Bill Abington, a four-term legislator from Fort Worth who later headed what is now the Texas Oil and Gas Association. He was 92.

Larry York, a former first attorney general under John Hill and former Texas Youth Commission chairman. He was 72.

Quotes of the Week

You know how long that takes in Texas at 75 miles an hour? That's a particularly flat highway.

U.S. 5th Circuit Court Judge Edith Jonessuggesting that quick highways mean traveling hundreds of miles from the Rio Grande Valley to obtain an abortion wouldn't be an "undue burden"

It would be a little difficult to explain to a group of corn farmers why spending a bunch of their money for me to go hunt alligators is a really good idea.

Jon Doggett, National Corn Growers Association vice president, on why he chose not to go alligator hunting with Sen. David Vitter, R-La., for a $5,000 campaign donation

He was — a Chuck E. Cheese manager!

State Board of Education candidate Lady Theresa Thombs taking her criticism of a rival candidate in an unexpected direction in a Monday forum

In case Chairman Sessions’ sarcastic comment (i.e. – bah humbug!) was misunderstood as a policy shift, let there be no doubt – he supports a full repeal of ObamaCare.

Torrie Miller, spokeswoman for Dallas Republican Congressman Pete Sessions, affirming that he still wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act

Maybe the word 'welfare' should be changed to something of a 'transitional living fund,' for that is what it is, for people to be able to live.

U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Houston, suggesting on the House floor a rebrand for the W-word

It may not be taken care of after this meeting, but maybe if the earth shakes down in Austin, we'll get some results.

An unidentified man who attended and came away dissatisfied from a Railroad Commission meeting in Azle intended to address a recent spate of earthquakes