The Never-Ending Story

The elections are coming into focus. Kind of, sort of.

The three-judge panel in San Antonio told the lawyers that the primaries won't take place any earlier than May 29 and instructed the political parties and the state to work out the details for an election on that date — things like filing deadlines and early voting dates and so on.

That came after election administrators told the court that trying to force an April election at this late date would set at least some of the state's counties up for failure.

To get a May 29 election without causing the same problems, they said, they'll need final maps from the court by March 3.

The lawyers agreed to an interim Senate map, which is another way of saying they settled their differences, for now, over the district represented by Democrat Wendy Davis of Fort Worth. The result is a Republican district, but Davis called it a win because it's identical to what she has now — and had when she upset Republican incumbent Kim Brimer in 2008. Each side thinks they can win it in this year's elections, which makes it the rarest of things in the Texas Senate: A district that is politically competitive outside of the primaries.

As this is written, on Thursday, the parties are still trying to work out their differences in two or three districts on the state House map: HD-81 in West Texas, HD-117 in Bexar County, and HD-144 in Harris County. Some of the plaintiffs want to undo some precinct splits around the state. The various factions are still trying to settle.

The congressional maps are messier and will probably have to be settled by the judges. The districts that are publicly in question include CD-23 (Bexar to El Paso), CD-25 (Doggett), CD-27 (Nueces County), CD-33 (Dallas-Tarrant counties) and CD-35 (Bexar to Travis).

The judges are trying to guess — in a way that'll satisfy the U.S. Supreme Court — at what another panel of federal judges is going to do with Section 5 of the federal Voting Rights Act. That court has said it will take until next month to rule on whether the state undermined any existing minority opportunity districts, leaving the Texas judges to anticipate what that court will do. The judges here also have to incorporate their own findings under the VRA and the constitution, and to do it all in a way that puts maps on the table within two weeks.

If its primary is on May 29, Texas will be the seventh-to-last state to vote on presidential candidates. The last state in that lineup is Utah, which holds its primary on June 26; that also happens to be the next most likely date for the Texas election if the maps aren't in place in time for a May 29 vote. The other June states, in case it comes up next time you're playing Trivial Pursuit, all vote on June 5: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota.

May 29th is the day after Memorial Day, for what it's worth (we've heard the argument that that hurts turnout, and the argument that it doesn't). And the runoff associated with that primary date is July 31. That'll be more expensive than a normal runoff; election administrators told the court that when schools are closed for the summer, they can charge rent if they're used for polling places. They can't do that during the school year.

Talk of a split primary all but died out after it became clear that the state didn't want to pay for it. Republican Party officials were initially for it, but a pack of their incumbent officeholders — led by Republicans in the Texas Senate — argued for a unified primary. The theory is that incumbents will do better in a unified primary where more people vote.

You can read longer versions of this week's court proceedings here and here.

High Marks for UT Plan

Students on the University of Texas at Austin campus.
Students on the University of Texas at Austin campus.

Last June, as the University of Texas at Austin’s productivity faced increasing scrutiny from outside groups, President Bill Powers created a task force to look into raising the school’s 53 percent four-year graduation rate to 70 percent by 2016.

A nearly 20-percentage-point jump in a short amount of time is an ambitious goal, especially when you realize that the class of 2016 will be enrolling this fall.

The task force, led by UT’s College of Liberal Arts Dean Randy Diehl, this week issued its 114-page report, complete with 60 recommendations for reaching that lofty goal. Powers said that some of the measures, including rigorous mandatory freshman orientation, would be implemented immediately, while others would require further review.

While the implementation of the recommendations remains to be seen, the report was met by positive reviews from key players on various sides of the higher education reform issue.

Bill Hammond, president of the Texas Association of Business, which has been critical of graduation rates throughout the state, said the report was “exactly” the right thing to do. “I would challenge every four-year university in Texas to do the same thing,” he said. “Develop a plan, implement it, and help these students succeed at moving through the system on time.”

Thomas Lindsay, the director of the Center for Higher Education at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tank that has promoted a controversial higher education reform agenda that has often put it at odds with UT, said he believed the recommendations would be effective.

Key legislators also expressed support.

Senate Higher Education Chairwoman Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, said she thought it was a promising development and said she appreciated the inclusion of students in the task force.

House Higher Education Chairman Dan Branch, R-Dallas, said he appreciated the “intellectual honesty” of administrators who admitted that they could do better and that even a 70 percent four-year graduation rate is still lower than some comparable universities outside of Texas.

Trying to Change the Subject

Elizabeth Ames Jones sent Gov. Rick Perry a letter this week quitting the Railroad Commission, but that didn't stop Sen. Jeff Wentworth's questions about whether she was eligible to serve there.

Jones is challenging Wentworth in the Republican primary for his San Antonio seat in the Senate. She's from San Antonio and reestablished her residency there before jumping into the Senate race.

Wentworth, citing a constitutional requirement that statewide officials live in the capital city, said that move made her ineligible for the commission.

Her first attempt to change the subject was a letter to Attorney General Greg Abbott, asking for his opinion on the question. After she wrote that, former Travis County Judge Bill Aleshire, a Democrat, filed a lawsuit asking Comptroller Susan Combs to stop paying Jones' salary, what with her being ineligible. Among other things, that lawsuit froze the Abbott letter; the AG doesn't generally weigh in once things are in the courts.

Then Jones decided to quit. Wentworth, however, didn't: He's now insisting she should return the salary she was paid between the time she declared her residency in San Antonio and the time she quit.

All of which leads to this: She'd much rather be talking about why Wentworth should go. Instead, he and another candidate in the race, Donna Campbell, have kept her job-hopping in the center ring.

The resignation gives the governor an opportunity to appoint a new commissioner to replace Jones. Three Republicans are in the race to replace her, and all three would presumably like the appointment. State Rep. Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, is ineligible, since he voted on the state budget that includes the salaries of the commissioners (he contests that, citing an attorney general's opinion from the 1960s). Christi Craddick and Roland Sledge are also in the hunt. Sledge issued a press release saying he had sent his application to Perry.

Aides to the governor say he hasn't make a decision.

Campaign Chatter

Gov. Rick Perry with supporters at Williamson County Republican dinner in Round Rock, his first public speech since leaving the presidential race.
Gov. Rick Perry with supporters at Williamson County Republican dinner in Round Rock, his first public speech since leaving the presidential race.

Gov. Rick Perry asked the Federal Election Commission if he can use money meant for his presidential campaign committee to form a Super PAC. It had $270,000 in the bank when the campaign was over and the campaign is asking the donors who contributed it whether they're willing to redesignate it.

• Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is doing his best to ignore the other Republicans in the race for U.S. Senate, but Democrat Paul Sadler got an immediate rise out of him with a demand that Dewhurst either quit or come back and restore cuts to public education.

Running against other Republicans is a little complicated, but for the Democrat, Dewhurst's strategy is to run against Barack Obama and to make it clear that Sadler's in the president's party.

Sadler's is to hold the Republicans up as more interested in politics than schoolchildren; he said Dewhurst and Gov. Rick Perry should call a special session on school finance, and said the lieutenant governor should either "get to work, or resign." Dewhurst responded that that was "just another example of a tax-and-spend liberal advocating for bigger government and more regulation."

• State Rep. Todd Smith is a "maybe" candidate for Texas Senate, depending on how the maps are drawn. For now, he says he's looking at it and won't make a decision until he sees the lines. Depending on how those come out, he could be in a contest with one or two Republican colleagues; three Tarrant/Dallas County Republicans — Kelly Hancock, Mark Shelton and Rodney Anderson — are already declared Senate candidates. Smith already filed as a House candidate; as soon as the political maps are set, there will be another filing period.

Scott Turner, running for the Texas House in Collin County, says he's won endorsements from the mayors of Blue Ridge, Celina, Farmersville, Lavon and Prosper. He's signed up for an open seat — HD-3 — but his website and campaign materials don't list a district, since the courts could jumble the maps.

Trent Ashby, a Lufkin Republican challenging freshman Rep. Marva Beck, R-Centerville, won the endorsement of the Texas Medical Association's TEXPAC.

• The Texas Farm Bureau's AGFUND endorsed Barry Smitherman for the Texas Railroad Commission. He's in the post now as an appointee. 

Inside Intelligence: Predicting the Outcomes

The insiders have Rick Santorum ahead of Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race in Texas. Asked who'll win here, 43 percent are betting on the former senator and 38 percent are betting on the former governor. Newt Gingrich was the pick of 11 percent, and native son Ron Paul got just 1 percent.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is the overwhelming favorite of the insiders in the Republican race for U.S. Senate, collecting 84 percent to Ted Cruz's 14 percent. Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert was the choice of 2 percent and 1 percent chose don't know as their answer. These choices on the list (from the roster of filed candidates, in case you're seeing a name or two for the first time) got zeroes: Glenn Addison, Joe Agris, Curt Cleaver, Ben Gambini, Charles Holcomb, Craig James, Lela Pittenger, and "another Republican candidate".

Most of the government and political insiders — 68 percent — think the Tea Party has too much influence on the GOP. Five percent chose "too little" and 22 percent said it's just about right.

Overwhelmingly, the insiders said the people they know would vote for a Mormon candidate who agrees with them on the issues. Only 9 percent said no.

As always, we have attached the full list of verbatim comments; a sampling, and a list of this week's respondents, follows: 

.

If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, which of the following candidates do you think would win the GOP Primary in Texas?

• "Every dog gets his day, and this one's Santorum's. But in June, who knows?"

• "Santorum is the last conservative still standing in the GOP primary."

• "Gingrich has gone cold, Romney is still lukewarm and Santorum is the hot ticket right now."

• "I have given up trying to figure out what the R's want"

• "Santorum's got the edge with the God/guns/gays voters that weigh so heavily in our GOP primaries, but the D crossover vote could negatively impact him."

• "Wouldn't be Romney. Would be the right wing flavor of the month."

• "Santorum is in line with Texas conservatives, but would mean defeat for GOP vs. Obama"

• "Texans want to vote for a winner. This year, that person is Romney."

.

If the 2012 Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, which of the following possible candidates do you think would win the GOP Primary in Texas?

• "Dewhurst has too much money, name id and record with the voting public to not be the chosen one."

• "Cruz and Leppert are hoping for a run off with Dewhurst, but at the end of the day it's Dewhurst's to lose."

• "The movement conservative activists may be enamored with Cruz right now, but the 2010 primary for Texas Railroad Commission demonstrated once again that GOP rank and file primary voters still won't vote for a Latino surname."

• "The only thing Dewhurst has is money, and lots of personal money to buy this election, but Cruz will get out the Tea Party vote and surprise a lot of people. Since there isn't a set date for the primary, Cruz has plenty of time to pick up more endorsements and votes. Time's ticking away Dewhurst!"

• "However, in West Texas, voters may scratch out Craig James and write in Mike Leach."

• "I see a massive stimulus package for Texas TV stations coming from our lieutenant governor."

.

Do you think the Tea Party movement has too much influence, too little influence, or the right amount of influence in the Republican Party?

• "If one looks at the overall impact the Tea Party movement has with voters, it is marginal. Their influence resides in dictating the dialogue and perception."

• "They are a small but vocal minority of the Republican Party and are perceived as having influence when in reality whatever influence they have is minimal."

• "Too much Influence and too little understanding of state government fiscal conditions."

• "The longer the Texas primary is delayed the more influence the tea party will have."

• "The movement has lost some juice, but many Republican officeholders remain terrified of it."

• "Anyone who believes this state delivers too many services is living in an ideological fantasyland."

• "Only a manifestation of the larger and increasingly prevalent phenomenon: the true believers run the political parties. A sad commentary on our times."

• "Too much influence on policy relative to electoral standing during the session, but they have not seemed that much in evidence of late."

.

Do you think most people you know would vote for a Mormon presidential candidate if they agreed with him or her on the issues?

• "People will say one thing in public, and do something completely different in the voting booth."

• "People I know would, but then I don't personally know those in the nut faction."

• "Mormon is NOT the issue with Romney, but his LIBERAL record is. Most of my friends like Mormons and consider them good people, but Romney's record defies the faith he espouses."

• "Yes. What's that saying? 'Better to be ruled by a wise Turk than a foolish Christian'? I think that holds true for most people in metropolitan areas."

• "Most people I know would, but I don't think the majority from my rural Texas home town will be as open minded."

• "Would most people I know vote for a presidential candidate if they believed burning bushes talked?"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Mike Barnett, Walt Baum, Leland Beatty, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Jay Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elizabeth Christian, Elna Christopher, Rick Cofer, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Randy Cubriel, Hector De Leon, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Craig Enoch, Alan Erwin, Ryan Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Terry Frakes, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Sandy Haverlah, Albert Hawkins, Adam Haynes, Susan Hays, Ken Hodges, Billy Howe, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, Tim Lambert, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Lynn Moak, Bee Moorhead, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Bill Pewitt, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jerry Polinard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Andrea Rado, Bill Ratliff, Kim Ross, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Steve Scurlock, Bradford Shields, Patricia Shipton, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Michael Wilt, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Seventeen undergraduate students at TCU were arrested and charged with dealing drugs after a six-month investigation jointly conducted by the Fort Worth Police Department and Texas Christian University campus police. The students, including four of the school's football players, were charged with dealing marijuana, cocaine, ecstasy, acid and prescription drugs. Officials said the investigation is ongoing and more arrests could be forthcoming.

A deal reached to help homeowners across the nation includes about $287 million for Texas homeowners. Lenders agreed to the $25 billion settlement to avoid legal action related to practices that led to the collapse of the real estate market. The money will be used to restructure mortgage loans, including principal write-downs, and will also be refunded to homeowners who were wrongfully foreclosed on.

Lawmakers worried over the state's new STAAR testing system wrote to the Texas Education Agency, confirming that agency has the authority to waive a requirement that the tests make up 15 percent of high school students' final course grades. Four senators signed the letter but stressed that this would be a temporary reprieve while students and districts adjust to the new system. Districts have also been given a one-year break from having scores factored into their ratings.

A voter registration watchdog group, Voting for America, filed a lawsuit against Texas and Secretary of State Hope Andrade. The group alleges Texas is restricting access to the polls by making it harder to conduct registration drives, asking voters for ID when it’s not required and purging valid voters from the rolls.

An Austin American-Statesman analysis of state agencies over the past 10 years shows that late payments have cost the state about $9.4 million dollars in interest. Texas’ accounting system automatically adds interest to any payment made more than 30 days late at a rate 1 percent above prime. But the numbers, provided by the comptroller’s office, show a marked decline from a high of $1.25 million in 2009 to $467,000 last year.

A controversial school prayer lawsuit that drew national attention has been settled. Medina Valley ISD was sued by a student who wanted to stop prayer from being included in his graduation ceremony last spring. After a judge initially banned the prayer, an appeals court allowed the district to proceed with its planned student-led prayer. But the controversy over prayer at school events continued and became a national conversation when it was referenced in the presidential campaign. Now the district has agreed to settle by not allowing its employees to pray with or prompt students to pray, advocate for prayer or display religious artifacts.

After learning a campaign donation to Rick Perry came from El Pasoan Bob Jones, a convicted felon, his campaign staff said Jones’ contribution of $80,000 will be returned in the form of eight $10,000 donations to various El Paso charities recommended by local leaders. Jones also gave to the campaigns of U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who have all said they also will return the money.

A routine traffic stop led to a Rio Grande Valley candidate's arrest on money laundering charges. After he was stopped for speeding, authorities found $1 million in cash in Robert Maldonado’s 2011 Chrysler, wrapped and bundled in a way that’s is typical of drug traffickers. Maldonado’s bail was set at $250,000.

Political People and their Moves

State District Judge Louis Sturns of Fort Worth will conduct a court of inquiry into charges that former Williamson County District Attorney Ken Anderson hid evidence in the murder trial of Michael Morton. Morton spent almost 25 years in prison before a reexamination of the case showed that someone else murdered his wife. Anderson is now a state district judge; he has denied accusations of misconduct in the Morton case. 

Mark Lane will be the new U.S. magistrate judge in Austin, replacing Robert Pittman, who became the U.S. Attorney for this region. Lane is currently a federal prosecutor. 

Jay Kimbrough won the approval of the Public Safety Commission to be the new assistant director for homeland security at the Department of Public Safety. 

Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, announced the appointment of Mayor Robert Pinkerton, Jr. of South Padre Island, to the Joint Interim Committee to Study Seacoast Territory Insurance.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst reappointed Jimmy Mansour to the Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas Oversight Committee. Mansour is the founding chairman of CEO America, a nonprofit organization that provides education scholarships for low-income children.

Dominic Chavez, senior director for external relations at the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, announced a bid for the Austin City Council, specifically the the Place 5 seat currently held by Bill Spelman.

Two political consultants, one from each side of the aisle, launched a new statewide political news website. Matt Mackowiak, a Republican, and Jason Stanford, a Democrat, operate MustReadTexas.com, which will aggregate political stories, editorials, columns and blog posts.

Deaths: Mike McKinney, the well-known and well-liked longtime lobbyist for the Wholesale Beer Distributors of Texas. McKinney and the late Robert "Butch" Sparks were known around the Capitol as the Booze Brothers. Simply put, he was one of the best in the business. He was 65.

Quotes of the Week

Absolutely.

Rick Perry to ABC News on whether he might run again for president

If we have a split primary, I would not want to be a Republican incumbent. Presumably turnout will drop significantly, meaning a larger percentage of the voters will be foaming-at-the-mouth freak shows — a k a the Tea Party. They are the Mikey of politics: They don't like anyone.

Democratic consultant Jeff Crosby

That’s asking me if I want to be shot in the stomach or the head. I’d rather be shot in the stomach, which would be May.

Texas GOP Chairman Steve Munisteri, asked whether he'd rather have primaries in May or June

If you progressive seculars want to find us — we meet each and every Sunday and throughout the week in every community of America. We are not ashamed of who we are.

Ray Myers, one of the founders of God and Country, a new Texas-based conservative Christian organization

It isn't toilet to tap. It's toilet to treatment to treatment to treatment to tap.

Belinda Smith, a volunteer at the Surfrider Foundation, telling the New York Times about a water recycling program