Early voting is underway as of this week. The presidential and U.S. Senate debates are over as of this week and last, respectively. All that's left is getting out the votes and then counting them. That said, here is our second-to-last Hot List of the year.

It's been remarkably static, not because the races aren't interesting and constantly changing, but because the informal collective assessments haven't changed much. The races at the top — those where the incumbent or incumbent party is most threatened — have been at the top, for the most part, since the start of the general election season. It goes like that all over the list. 

Your change numbers, in case you have to know this at the next cocktail party or coffee shop, are these: Texas will get at least seven new members of Congress — three replacements and four new seats; six new senators, including four from retirements, one from election defeat, and one resulting from the death of Mario Gallegos; and 40 new members of the House. Those numbers could easily change a bit come November 6.

Texas is flyover country in presidential elections, and the redistricting process has made nearly every Congressional seat safe for one party or the other in general elections. 

But voters in Congressional District 23 are getting a taste of what folks in swing states are seeing in the presidential contest: a real nailbiter of a race.

The district is 66 percent Hispanic, and neither party has much advantage. In 2008, Barack Obama got 49.9 percent of the vote here, and John McCain got 49.3 percent.

U.S. Rep. Francisco Canseco, R-San Antonio, has outraised state Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, by about $1 million at last count. Both sides claim they’re winning, but the amount of money and the tenor of the attack ads suggest the race is a tossup, as top Congressional watchers like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have been saying. More than $5 million in outside money, from the two major parties and Super PACs, had flowed into the race by late October.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had dropped over $1.3 million and its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, had spent a tad more, about $1.6 million.

The latest group to get into the act, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a pro-GOP Super PAC, is promising to spend $1 million in the race. The group has spent over $600,000 so far, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. 

It has used the money to run an attack ad against Gallego, criticizing past votes for tax increases and support from “radical environmental groups.”

On the other side, the League of Conservation Voters has spent $1 million so far, running ads criticizing Canseco for votes against clean energy initiatives and in favor of tax breaks for the wealthy.

The candidates are hitting each other directly, too. Canseco has dropped some nasty mailers on Gallego, one of them boldly using the face of Jesus to suggest his Democratic opponent had, in the words of his campaign manager, “abandoned” his Catholic faith.

Gallego called in a higher power, too — Bill Clinton. The former president, whose image appears in a Gallego TV ad, stumped for the president this week on the South side of San Antonio at a get-out-the-vote rally.

The Alpine Democrat is also fighting back with his own mailer against Canseco, highlighting Canseco's opposition in 2007 to the Dream Act, which would give illegal immigrant children a way to become citizens. Gallego  took a dig at Canseco for opposing President Barack Obama’s “Deferred Action,” allowing such children to temporarily stay and work in the United States.

“Quico Canseco wants to deport them,” the mail piece says.

Canseco says he feels for people in that predicament, but says Obama’s executive order was unconstitutional.

“I have the utmost sympathy for children that were brought here by their parents and they know no other nation they know no other language this is their home there are solutions that can be had but those solutions are not what the president tried to do in this is subvert the Constitution,” he says. “There will be a time that we can address those issues in a very humanistic way and in a very American way.”

A debate over transportation funding is speeding toward the next legislative session and the outcome may hinge on whether lawmakers can agree on the definitions of some key words and phrases.

For starters, what exactly is a budget diversion?

Both Gov. Rick Perry and House Speaker Joe Straus are calling for an end to the Legislature’s long-standing practice of taking money collected for one purpose and diverting it to another pot.

Perry spent most of a press conference in Irving earlier this month honing in on Fund 6, the state’s highway fund, arguing that it has “been tapped for entirely different purposes and that has to stop. First, because it’s not a transparent and honest accounting of our financial situation. And secondly, because we need to build roads.”

It riles many that a chunk of the tax Texans pay when they buy gasoline doesn’t help build or maintain Texas roads. But does all of that non-road spending qualify as a diversion?

State Rep. Joe Pickett, D-El Paso, says perception is a big problem with the conversation. When the public thinks “diversions,” they think of accounting gimmicks that can be simply undone by lawmakers with the courage to make it so in the next budget, he says. But the biggest diversion is written in the Texas Constitution. A nickel out of the 20 cents state gas tax is required to go to public education.

Pickett is among the lawmakers who want to see the full 20 cents go to transportation. Is it a diversion if Texans voted to take the nickel in perpetuity? Even if all agree it is, convincing voters to return to the polls and unwind that commitment would be a tough sell.

More than $500 million of the gas tax also gets transferred each year to the Department of Public Safety, which is in charge of policing public roadways. State lawmakers aren’t in agreement that the DPS funding counts as a diversion. State Rep. Linda Harper-Brown, R-Irving, has called it a diversion for years. House Transportation Committee Chair Larry Phillips, R-Sherman, has said he doesn't see it as one.

“We as leaders have to communicate to the Legislature exactly what we’re looking at so we can get past the diversion issue and get to the next step and identify opportunities,” Phillips said at last month’s Texas Tribune Festival.

The other word with an eye-of-the-beholder interpretation: tax. The Texas Association of Business and a few lawmakers see potential in a $50 hike in the vehicle registration fee as a way to raise more revenue for roads. While some argue it’s the most palatable option available to the Legislature, Tea Party-friendly lawmakers may view fee as a synonym for another three-letter word.

At a TAB forum in Austin this month, state Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, touched on a problem that most transportation revenue options are going to face next year: getting everyone reading from the same dictionary.

“You can call a fee a fee but it’s still going to be perceived by some as a tax,” she said.

In the Newsreel this week: It's election time! The updated Hotlist of races, the end of debates and early voting is under way. 

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/SivygR

This week, we asked some more questions that parallel those in the new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, checking in to see what the insiders think about the races for president, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commission, and for their own (unnamed) state representative. Their answers? Mitt Romney, Paul Sadler, Christi Craddick, and “deserves reelection.”

The majority — 58 percent — would vote against Gov. Rick Perry in 2014 if he sought another term. And among the insiders, Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples is the favorite in a big and speculative field for lieutenant governor in 2014, followed by Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and current Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

Asked about the influence of the Tea Party on the GOP, 68 percent said the Tea is too strong, 2 percent said too weak, and 24 percent said it’s just right.

We’ve included the verbatim remarks from the insiders in the attached document, and a sampling follows below:

If the 2012 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, someone else, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?

• "Obama hasn't been perfect but Romney is an historically weak candidate. The economy should have sunk Obama but things are looking better and Romney is just unlikeable."

• "Americans need jobs and an improved economy and less debt. Obama has failed on all 3 counts."

• "Bush broke the world. This is no weekend fixer-upper project. It takes more than four years to put it back together again. To the extent that Romney takes any position for longer than five minutes, he would return us to the failed policies of the past, which strengthen our enemies abroad and hollow out our middle class at home."

• "Who hasn't thought enough about this to have an opinion, and why are they included in a survey for insiders?"

• "Romney has shown himself to be an attractive and plausible alternative to Obama, who has failed as a leader.  Romney will win."

If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?

• "Cruz is waaaay out there...that's bad for Texas."

• "Paul Sadler is running the weakest U.S. Senate campaign in Texas in 100 years."

• "The TEA Party is about to be shocked to discover that Cruz is a creature of Washington who has deep ties throughout all levels of the Republican Establishment. They have been played unfortunately."

• "The Democrats have a nominee?  That's interesting."

• "Cruz is settling into his forthcoming role as an activist, conservative Senator."

If the 2012 general election for the contested railroad commissioner seat was held today, would you vote for the Republican Christi Craddick, the Democrat Dale Henry, the Libertarian Vivekandanda Wall, the Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy, someone else, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?

• "Anybody but Craddick!  Her father has spent his whole life taking care of his personal interest (albeit with help from his friends on the House floor) of oil and gas, now he can take care of the hearings and rules process overseeing the rules process."

• "Christi Craddick has really been a nice surprise -- working hard, learning the issues, listening -- she's making a good impression."

• "I will skip the race"

• "I'll take Craddick, although Vivekandanda Wall scores some points for an awesome name."

• "We need a little diversity in our statewide officeholders."

Do you think your incumbent state representative deserves reelection in 2012, or is it time to give someone else a chance?

• "I'm getting a new one. I'll let you know in a couple of years."

• "My incumbent is an idiot."

• "Tried, but failed, to recruit a challenger in the Primary."

• "Live in an open seat district"

• "Why do we continue to re-elect those that represent us while we pound our fists about incumbents?  If we throw our guy out, we admit that we made a mistake.  This is why incumbents always get re-elected.  We never make mistakes."

If the 2014 Republican primary election for lieutenant governor were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?

• "Two years out and we know this is the field from which we will choose?"

• "Jerry Patterson is the best natural politician on the field today. He knows how to develop and drive a clear message. On matters of principle, he does not blink."

• "Your Lt Gov list left out Greg Abbott.  Some Perry people have already told me that they expect Greg to run for Lt Gov."

• "Patterson, although unpolished, has shown real leadership ability.  The incumbent is a clone of Perry."

• "He has been a fair leader, without compromising his principles.  I can't imagine a compelling reason to fire him.  But, I never thought he would have lost the Senate primary either so anything is possible."

If Rick Perry were to run for governor again in 2014, would you vote for him, would you vote against him, or would you need to wait and see who is running against him?

• "I have Perry fatigue, but have a hard time seeing that he's really done anything wrong enough to warrant an ouster."

• "We should not have a governor for 10 years or more, period."

• "If Abbott runs, he'll WIN."

• "I'd take Perry over a lot of others, but if AG Abbott ran, I'd take him in a heartbeat."

• "The state badly needs new leadership and an end to one-man rule in Austin"

Do you think the Tea Party movement has too much influence, too little influence, or the right amount of influence in the Republican Party?

• "Too much perceived influence."

• "Not sure this is a fair question.  Influence is neutral.  It does not care who it affects and you either have it or you do not.  I think the better question is do you agree with things that are being influenced within the party.  I think you will find that there are places for disagreement and agreement within the movement."

• "To the extent that the TEA Party holds the Republican Party to constitutional principles, it is a positive force."

• "This question reminds me of the quote the rumors about my demise are greatly exaggerated.  The Tea Party will be around as long as taxpayers are angry about government's inability to wisely use their hard earned money."

• "Influence goes to those who show up and vote. The further folks jerk to the right the sooner the middle is filled by others. Democrats best friends... teavangelicals!"

• "The Tea Party has reinvigorated the GOP, and helped return the party to core principles.  The Tea Party should be all about fiscal responsibility; the danger is that social issue activists will continue to gain influence in the TP."

• "Used to be close to a straight ticket Republican until the Tea Partiers entered the picture.  If we don't find ways to adequately fund education, water infrastructure and transportation projects the economic growth we have enjoyed will quickly come to a halt."

• "All they are is LOUD. Real leadership would stand up to them. Straus sure does..."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, James Clark, Rick Cofer, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Rebecca Flores, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Scott Gilmore, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Adam Haynes, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Billy Howe, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Phillip Martin, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Mike McKinney, Kathy Miller, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Kim Ross, Jeff Rotkoff, Jason Sabo, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Christopher Williston, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Lee Woods, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Monday, Oct. 29:

• Rally for U.S. House candidate Randy Weber, with Ted Cruz; Madison's on Dowlen, Beaumont (1 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for House candidate Stephanie Klick; Fogata's, Fort Worth (5:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, Oct. 30:

• Senate Criminal Justice Committee hearing (9:30 a.m., noon)
• Senate Education Committee hearing (9:30 a.m., noon)

• Randy Weber rally, with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn; Bates Park, Angleton (10 a.m.), and Gov. Rick Perry; Stevenson Park, Friendswood (4 p.m.)

Thursday, Nov. 1:

• Joint Windstorm Insurance Oversight Committee (10 a.m.)

A district court in Austin this week was the scene of opening arguments in the lawsuit challenging the state's school finance system. School districts banded together to sue the state for cutting funding in the last legislative session while raising standards districts say strain their resources. State attorneys blamed the districts' woes on bad decisions made at the local level. A charter school group that joined the lawsuit accuses the state of inadequately funding public education, but also has its own goals of eliminating the state’s cap on charters and gaining facilities funding. And a sixth group, Texans for Real Efficiency and Equity in Education, wants to do away with what it calls the monopoly the state has on education and the resulting inefficiencies and unfairness. The trial is expected to last until January.

So far this year, early voting appears to be more popular than ever with Texans. Both Harris and Bexar County reported marked increases in the number of people who turned up on the first day of early voting. Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart reported a 20 percent increase in first-day totals over 2008. Bexar County’s total outpaced the 2008 first-day turnout, and Tarrant County also shattered its first-day record. Officials speculated that voters were opting for convenience ahead of Election Day, when they would be required to find their specific precinct’s location. Early voting runs through Nov. 2.

Texas’ controversial voter ID law has spurred an international group to send observers to the Lone Star State on Election Day. But Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott is not rolling out the red carpet for them, warning the U.N.-affiliated Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that its observers would be required to maintain a distance of 100 feet from the entrance to a polling place. The group earlier this year met with organizations in Texas that are concerned about the effect voter ID could have on minority voting, though the Texas law is currently on hold in court.

A group advocating the separation of church and state is protesting the message on the marquee of a church in Leakey. Americans United for Separation of Church and State, a national watchdog group, complained to the IRS about the sign, which reads “Vote for the Mormon, not the Muslim.” Churches are exempt from taxes, but as a result are required not to advocate for any particular candidate. Ray Miller, who was responsible for the sign, did not respond to questions from the press, although he said it was his idea because of his strong feelings about the upcoming election.

The Teachers Retirement System announced that it’s investing $200 million in Delta Topco Limited, a holding company for the Formula One Group. The stake gives the teachers group a 3 percent stake in the fortunes of the company, although it’s only 0.18 percent of the TRS portfolio. A statement from TRS clarified that the investment is with Formula One and is not connected to any particular facility, such as the one in Austin where a race is scheduled next month.

As issues with refineries and gas supplies ease, AAA reports the price of gas has dropped substantially since the end of the summer driving season. The national average tumbled 12 cents in one week, although other parts of the country felt more relief, as the average price in Houston dropped about 8 cents. AAA predicts that falling prices will be a trend through Thanksgiving.

Texas continues to collect increasing amounts of sales tax. For the 30th month in a row, collections of the tax were up, and the state is on track to collect over $24 billion this year, which will set a revenue record.

Rep. Jim Murphy, R- Houston, will serve as chairman of the new House Interim Committee on Manufacturing, and Rep. Eddie Rodriguez, D-Austin, will be vice chairman. The committee was formed by House Speaker Joe Straus to "recommend ways that the Legislature can strengthen the manufacturing sector in Texas."

Bill White, the former chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, former Democratic candidate for governor and former Houston mayor, took to the Letters to the Editor section of the Houston Chronicle to tell readers to split their tickets. He wants the Republicans to cross over and vote for Democratic Sheriff Adrian Garcia and wants Democrats to cross over to vote for Republican Mike Anderson, who’s running for district attorney.

The Railroad Commission has named Gil Bujano as the director of the commission’s Oil and Gas Division. Bujano has been serving as the acting Oil and Gas Division director since March and is a 28-year veteran of the Commission.

The University of Texas System Board of Regents has named Giuseppe N. Colasurdo president of the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston. Colasurdo has served as the interim president since last year.

Linda T. Hummel has been named president of the Employer Group Division for Humana Inc. in Texas. Hummel has been with Humana for 22 years.