In years when both parties had statewide primary runoffs, turnout in the second round of voting averaged almost half of turnout in the first round. On average, the runoff got a vote for every two in the primary.

Republicans tend to be worse about coming back. In elections with a statewide runoff, their average runoff turnout was 27.3 percent of their average primary turnout. For Democrats, the corresponding number was 34.9 percent.

Caveats abound: Every election is different and has funny bounces; it's unusual to have equal reasons for Democrats and Republicans to return to the ballot box in the same year; and not all statewide elections are equal, with a U.S. Senate race one year and a Court of Criminal Appeals race the next to drive out the runoff vote.

The high mark for Republicans over the last 20 years was in 1998, when the runoff drew 39.1 percent of the first round voters (not the same voters, necessarily, but that number). The GOP's low-water mark was in 2000, when one in five voters came back. For the Democrats, 2008 was the stinker, at 6.5 percent, and 1994 was the high mark, at 72 percent.

The mother of runoffs? Easy: It was 1993, when a May 1 special election for U.S. Senate boiled over into a June 2 runoff between Kay Bailey Hutchison and Bob Krueger. In that one, the dropoff from the first round of voting to the second was relatively small: the runoff drew 86.2 percent of the first round voters.

A little history

• In 1992, neither party had a statewide runoff race.

• The 1996 GOP runoff had Court of Criminal Appeals seats, but no top-of-ballot race to attract voter attention. The Democrats, that same year, were watching Victor Morales beat a couple of incumbent congressmen in the primary for U.S. Senate. That proved to be a bigger draw in the runoff.

• In 1998, the draw in the GOP runoff was an attorney general race between John Cornyn and Barry Williamson. Democrats didn't have a statewide runoff.

• In 2000, Republicans had a weak runoff showing statewide, with a court of criminal appeals race at the top of the ballot. Charles Gandy and Gene Kelly led the Republican ticket, vying for U.S. Senate; Kelly went on to face Hutchison in the general.

• Texas Democrats ran their well-financed "dream team" ballot in 2002, and the Senate runoff between Morales and Ron Kirk drove turnout that year. Republicans had a state Supreme Court race at the top, and lower turnout in the runoff.

• The Republicans had a Railroad Commission runoff between Victor Carrillo and Robert Butler in 2004 to top their ballot. Democrats didn't have a statewide race in their runoff.

• The 2006 runoff on the Republican side was, once again, a low turnout court race. On the Democrats side, it was a U.S. Senate race, but one in which neither candidate has the financial ability to run a strong statewide campaign to raise voter interest.

• The 2008 primaries were a big draw, with the Democratic candidates for president tangled in an undecided race and Republican voters energized by the amount of political activity, even though much of that was in the other primary. The Republicans didn't have a statewide runoff that year. On the Democratic side, there was a statewide runoff, but after the Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama match, it was a Peewee League pairing for Railroad Commission between Dale Henry and Mark Thompson.

• On a smaller scale, that's what happened with the GOP in 2010; a three-way gubernatorial primary with Hutchison, Rick Perry, and Debra Medina drew voters in March, but the top race in the runoff was a Supreme Court matchup. It wasn't much of a draw. On the Democratic side, no statewide race went to a runoff.

This year's notes

• All told, there are 37 runoffs on July 31, including 25 in Republican primary and a dozen in the Democratic primary.

• There are five statewide runoffs, four of them in the Republican primary and one in the Democratic primary.

• There are 11 congressional runoffs, five Republican, six Democratic.

• Three SBOE runoffs, two Republican, one Democratic.

• One Republican Senate runoff.

• And there are 17 runoffs in the Texas House, 13 Republican and four Democratic.

A mildly daring speculation

• 1.4 million Texans voted in the Republican primary this year. If the party hits its average runoff return, that would translate to 384,114 voters on July 31.

• Just over 590,000 Democrats voted in May; if they get their average runoff turnout, they'll have 205,973 voters this month.

• If both parties match their historic highs, nearly a million Texans will vote this month. If it's a time for historic lows, the total number would be 318,475.

The four remaining Republican candidates for the Texas Railroad Commission are preparing for their last three weeks before the run-offs on July 29, with salvos and counter-salvos about resume gaps, in the case of the Warren Chisum-Christi Craddick race, and debates about green energy in the Barry Smitherman-Greg Parker matchup. Meanwhile, confusion is rife among voters, who are dealing with unusual twin runoffs following an also-unusual redistricting saga and a delayed primary. And all of this for an agency whose functions don’t match its name.

But how much does it actually matter who wins? The candidates sound remarkably similar on the big-ticket topics. All loathe the Environmental Protection Agency, applaud the Texas drilling boom and want to overhaul the commission’s often-impenetrable website. And indeed, most of the commission’s decisions are unanimous, according to Elizabeth Ames Jones, who left the commission in February.

She and others insist that this does not mean that the commissioners are interchangeable in the way they will vote. Whereas cases involving geology and engineering disputes are often more straightforward, some of the most important and precedent-setting decisions, involving for example new technology, get decided by 2-1 votes, she said. The Sunset Commission last year, for example, elicited a difference of opinion: then-chairman Michael Williams wanted a single commissioner to preside over the agency, whereas Ames Jones and Commissioner David Porter favored the current three-commissioner set-up.

Personalities are also a key differentiator — especially important given the RRC’s reputation as a launching pad for higher office. “When you have three [type] A personalities in there, it can create friction between then,” said Alex Mills, president of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers.  “And it has happened. It will probably happen again.” As examples, he cited Jim Nugent, a commissioner during the 1980s, who “had opinions about everything and didn’t mind expressing them.” Similarly, Barry Williamson and Carole Rylander (now Strayhorn) went head to head over intra-state natural gas pipeline regulations, he said.

Ames-Jones echoed this thought. “Typically you’re pretty strong-willed anyway to run for office, and you’ve got to have nerves of steel,” she said. “You get three people with nerves of steel who have been elected, and you’re probably going to have people who are not necessarily wanting to be going to movies on weekends… But that’s good. You really can’t anyway.” Due to the nature of the job — the restrictions on discussing cases in private — the commissioners don’t have much of a chance to get acquainted, Ames Jones said; they aren’t even afforded the deliberation opportunities that Supreme Court justices have. “There’s a little bit of small talk on the way to here or there, or downstairs on the way to a hearing room,” she said. “It doesn’t get much past the weather.”

Ideally, according to Ames Jones, voters should look for someone with a “judicial temperament” — as if, in fact, they are choosing a Supreme Court justice. The RRC is “called, lightly, the Supreme Court of oil and gas law.” After all the sound bites on the campaign trail, the commissioners must wrangle with non-partisan issues of science and geology, she said, and make sure that people coming before the commission have due process.

But getting back to the all-important question of who wins: Mills, who has been watching races for more than three decades, admitted he’s stumped when it comes to predicting voters’ choices. “You just look at the last election, when David Porter defeated Victor Carrillo — both had very similar philosophies about government, meaning they had a very pro-industry [stance],” he said. “…And Victor was very well-qualified, and he was the incumbent, and David beat him.”

His best guess? “It’s going to be close, I think,” he said. “Both races I think will be close.” And they may offer some further clarity, after the Carillo-Porter surprise.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to uphold federal health reform — but to make the Medicaid expansion it requires essentially optional — has created, in the words of Donald Rumsfeld, a lot of “known unknowns” for Texas.

Will the state reject more than $100 billion in federal dollars over the next several years to cover more poor people under Texas' safety-net insurance plan? Will it establish a state-specific health insurance exchange — effectively an online marketplace for competitive rates — or let the feds do it instead?

But these decisions, choices that seemed so urgent just a week ago, probably aren’t imminent. That’s because of the “unknown unknowns” — what the November election and a possible Mitt Romney presidency could mean for health reform’s implementation.

Romney has said if elected, he’d fight for repeal of “Obamacare,” or simply grant states waivers to opt out of health reform. That gives states like Texas little motivation to really work at implementing federal health reform until they know what happens in November.

And even if voters send President Obama back to the White House, the Medicaid expansion isn’t supposed to start until 2014. There’s an entire five-month legislative session in Texas between now and then, where the debate over accepting the federal funding — at a cost to the already strapped state budget of about $6 billion between 2014 and 2019 — could prompt other as-yet unknown courses of action.

“Our take,” Health and Human Services Commission spokeswoman Stephanie Goodman said, “is that it will be a legislative decision that will be debated during the session.”

Hospitals in particular have a tricky tightrope to walk: They must convince the state not to reject the federal funding for a Medicaid expansion, but craft their message in a way that resonates with an anti-Washington governor and the ruling party's Tea Party base.

For hospitals, an expansion of Medicaid means less uncompensated care and more revenue — which translates into increased stability at a time when they’re already facing a restructuring of how they receive state and federal reimbursement. Rejecting the federal funds, they argue, would soon leave Texas with a bigger population of the uninsured than there is today.

But the big suits steering Texas’ major hospitals know they’re not sympathetic enough figures to ask for the Medicaid expansion on the basis of their bottom lines. Instead, they’ll argue that the state’s rejection of the federal funds would shift costs back to the Texas consumer two-fold — via the taxes they pay, and via rising health insurance premiums.  

One possible scenario Texas lawmakers could consider: If they don’t want a statewide Medicaid expansion, they might give regions or local hospital districts the green light to try to negotiate with the federal government for their own communities. Some health reform supporters fear this could create a scenario of the haves and have-nots — one called it a school finance Robin Hood plan “on steroids” — depending on which communities have the local tax base to pay their contribution to the Medicaid expansion. (Goodman said such a possibility isn’t yet clear.)

Another: It would be a big loss for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) if Texas, the state with the highest percentage of uninsured residents, didn’t partake in the Medicaid expansion. That gives state leaders quite a bit of leverage. Gov. Rick Perry, who, unlike some other conservative state governors, hasn’t flat-out rejected the Medicaid expansion, could bargain with Washington to get a waiver to design the roll-out the way Texas wants, including staggered coverage or a system that requires enrollees to have more skin in the game. 

Perry “hasn’t said yet what he plans on doing, which gives me a lot of hope,” said state Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston. Coleman said while history would indicate Perry won’t accept the money, “things change.”

“If we listen to what he has to say, if we create a dialogue between CMS, between state legislatures across the country, we might see what it is they want in the package that would persuade them to move forward," Coleman said.

Nobody knows exactly who will show up to vote in the July 31 runoff election, and voters who head to the polls for one candidate might actually help another.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/LSgioN

We wrap up our runoff ballot questions this week with an insiders'  whirl through a dozen open House seats on the July 31 ballot — a list that includes eight Republican and four Democratic races.

One race — HD-12 — found the insiders pretty evenly matched (they favored Kyle Kacal over Tucker Anderson 51-49), but in most of the races the conventional wisdom of these political and governmental insiders was clear.

The results, and the relatively brief set of verbatim comments offered up by the insiders this week, follows:

Who do you think would win an HD-137 runoff held today?

• "Who?"

• "Gene has been working this district for many years and had built a string foundation to challenge Hochberg. Maybe Scott knew something all of us insiders did not… his days were numbered."

Who do you think would win an HD-117 runoff held today?

• "Who?"

• "Annie's List will be pivotal here."

Who do you think would win an HD-115 runoff held today?

• "Ratliff is not a good household name in TX."

• "Grassroots not entitlement wins races."

Who do you think would win an HD-114 runoff held today?

• "Welcome back! Your dreams are your ticket out..."

• "Bill has the name ID."

• "Conservative, experienced, that's what HD 114 needs."

• "The "other" Keffer just won't work at it!"

Who do you think would win an HD-95 runoff held today?

• "Who?"

• "Nicole Collier has a compelling story and is a rising star."

• "Who?"

Who do you think would win an HD-91 runoff held today?

• "Who?"

• "Please not this crazy, phony politician."

• "Stephanie's political experience will help her win the run-off."

Who do you think would win an HD-68 runoff held today?

• "Who?"

• "Darn near did it the first time. Quite an accomplishment."

• "Money matters in a huge geographic district"

Who do you think would win an HD-67 runoff held today?

• "Paxton for Leach"

• "Who?"

• "Cole's negative campaigning will bite him in the end."

• "If you've ever met Cole.... you'll vote for Leach."

Who do you think would win an HD-40 runoff held today?

• "Who?"

• "Have you seen Gus and his wife? How can anyone vote against that supermodel couple?"

• "Terry has learned how to use his money to bring in the fold political families that control votes in the district. This race will not be close."

Who do you think would win an HD-26 runoff held today?

• "Who?"

• "Rick Miller has proven that the evangelicals still have staying power in an area that has seen diversity blossom."

• "Voters want a strong leader, not a cute cheerleader."

• "Don't know this one"

Who do you think would win an HD-24 runoff held today?

• "Sitton is a good candidate, but he cannot compete against the machine."

• "A neurosurgeon wiling to give his time for $600 a month? Such a deal for the voters that they shouldn't pass it up."

• "Bonnen has the clear advantage in this one"

Who do you think would win an HD-12 runoff held today?

• "Kacal has Democrat history"

• "Who? Kacal is a bad ballot name (for a R primary)..."

• "Only reason Tucker did well in first round was many in the Waco market thought they were voting for Doc."

• "Kacal has the wind at his back. He actually lives in the district and has experience that should resonate with runoff voters."

• "It's too close to call. However, the most important story line is that the Farm Bureau cannot afford to lose this one."

• "Kyle knows the voters and Tucker is seen as a carpet bagger."

• "Without other local races on the ballot, the cream will rise!"

• "Who can avoid voting for a guy named Tucker?"

• "Even though the name Tucker Anderson sounds like an upscale men's clothing boutique and looks better on a ballot, with fewer races and candidates on the ballot, I am confident voters will understand Kyle Kacal better understands the views of those who live in the district."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Allen Blakemore, Andrew Biar, Bee Moorhead, Brandon Aghamalian, Bill Ratliff, Bryan Mayes, Bruce Gibson, Bruce Scott, Tom Duffy, Cathie Adams, Chris Britton, Clyde Alexander, Colin Strother, Corbin Van Arsdale, Clint Hackney, Craig Murphy, Dennis Speight, Darren Whitehurst, David Dunn, Denise Davis, Elna Christopher, Ed Small, George Allen, Gerard Torres, Gardner Pate, Hector De Leon, Jack Erskine, Jenny Aghamalian, James LeBas, Jay Pritchard, Jason Sabo, Jason Johnson, Jay Arnold, Pete Laney, Jerry Philips, Parker McCollough, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Jim Sartwelle, Jason Skaggs, Jay Thompson, June Deadrick, Keats Norfleet, Kinnan Golemon, Ken Hodges, Kraege Polan, Keith Strama, Ken Whalen, Lydia Camarillo, Lisa Kaufman, Luke Marchant, Luke Legate, Matt Mackowiak, Mike Barnett, Dan McClung, Michael Grimes, Mark Jones, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Michael Wilt, Nora Del Bosque, Nef Partida, Norman Garza, Mark Sanders, Pat Nugent, Jay Propes, Ramey Ko, Randy Cubriel, Richard Khouri, Robert Miller, Bob Strauser, Russ Tidwell, Ruben Longoria, Scott Gilmore, Seth Winick, Shanna Igo, Snapper Carr, Steve Scurlock, Stan Schlueter, Jason Stanford, Steve Bresnen, Sherry Sylvester, Tom Banning, Tom Blanton, Thomas Graham, Thure Cannon, Tim Lambert, Tim Reeves, Tom Kleinworth, Ted Melina Raab, Tom Spilman, Trent Townsend, Tris Castaneda, Trey Trainor, Eric Glenn, Corbin Casteel, Wil Galloway, Wayne Hamilton, Ware Wendell, Angelo Zottarelli.

Monday, July 9:

• House Appropriations Subcommittee meeting (9 a.m.)
• House Transportation Committe meeting (1 p.m.)
• Senate Finance Committee meeting (10 a.m.)
• Fundraiser for Rep. Raul Torres; Austin (5:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, July 10:

• House Appropriations Subcommittee meeting (1 p.m.)
• House Environmental Regulation Committee meeting (1 p.m.)
• House State Affairs Committee meeting (1 p.m.)
• House Technology Committee meeting (1 p.m.)
• Senate Business and Commerce Committee meeting (10 a.m.)
• Senate Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee meeting (1 p.m.)

Wednesday, July 11:

• House Government Efficiency and Reform Committee meeting (10 a.m.)
• House Judiciary and Civil Jurisprudence Committee meeting (10 a.m.)
• House State Affairs Committee meeting (10 a.m.)

Thursday, July 12:

• House Government Efficiency and Reform Committee meeting (9 a.m.)
• Reception for House candidate Jacquie Chaumette; Houston (5:30 p.m.)

Friday, July 13:

• Fundraiser for House candidate Jason Villalba; Dallas (noon)

Bitterness continues to surge through the Senate District 25 race, as defeated candidate Elizabeth Ames Jones endorsed her former target’s opponent in the upcoming July 31 runoff. The rivalry between Ames Jones and incumbent Sen. Jeff Wentworth was rancorous, and her endorsement of Donna Campbell didn’t surprise observers of the race. Wentworth’s team dismissed it, and Wentworth has contended that both of his challengers are not as invested in the district's voters as he is. 

Drilling trucks have done at least $2 billion in road damage, according to a task force reporting to the Texas Department of Transportation. The boom in drilling around the Barnett and Eagle Ford shales has taken a toll on the roads around the state, and with the price of natural gas down, big producers aren’t willing to kick in money for repairs as they’ve done in the past. County and farm-to-market roads are the hardest hit, as they aren’t built to withstand the millions of pounds of drilling equipment being hauled. 

Galveston’s struggle to rebuild after Hurricane Ike took another twist after the city’s latest mayoral election. Newly elected Mayor Lewis Rosen ran on an anti-public-housing platform, and after being sworn into office, shook up the Galveston Housing Authority by replacing three of its members and asking for the resignation of a fourth. The city remains divided on the rebuilding of public housing, and there have been accusations of racial bias in Rosen’s backing of a voucher program. It’s also unclear how this will affect state and federal funds dedicated to the recovery effort; outgoing Mayor Joe Jaworski claims it will violate agreements between the city and the funding groups and will lead to lawsuits to enforce terms of the agreements.

While many business leaders and economists agree with education experts that pre-K programs greatly aid students, the programs are easy to cut because they have less stringent requirements on class size and duration. The state had taken steps to establish a program encouraging the expansion of pre-K from half day to full day, but the $200 million grant program was eliminated in the last budget. Districts around the state report that they’ve reduced their pre-K teaching staff by more than 1,100 teachers.

South Padre Island made it on to the Natural Resources Defense Council's list of cleanest beaches in the nation, but environmental groups claim that the rating is an anomaly. Because of the record drought last year, they said the beaches didn’t get the typical pollution-containing runoff that causes health problems for people swimming in that water. A nonprofit group based in Austin, Environment Texas, predicts that with the return of normal rainfall, the beaches will again be a concern to anyone sensitive to pollutants that cause infections and skin rashes.

An El Paso businessman accused of bribing a county judge will plead guilty in federal court to one of 11 counts of fraud and embezzlement, according to the El Paso Times. Ruben “Sonny” Garcia is facing charges of bribing Judge Dolores Briones in his effort to win a lucrative contract evaluating children with severe mental illness for a federal program. His company, LKG Enterprises, was awarded the $600,000 contract but failed to provide any required reporting on its evaluations, and he will plead guilty to the charge of committing theft or embezzlement of federal program funds. The indictment demands that Garcia and his co-defendant, Cirilo “Chilo” Madrid, repay the Border Children’s Mental Health Collective $550,000.

With the recent establishment of a program designed to reduce the number of premature births, state health officials hope to save millions of dollars in neonatal intensive care. The Texas Health and Human Services Commission announced the program, which establishes a hotline for at-risk women, and projects that the state can save $32.5 million over the next two years. Preventing premature births would be a big cost-saver for the state’s Medicaid fund, as care for premature babies costs 18 times that of regular births.

Former U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional administrator Al Armendariz will join the staff of the Sierra Club in mid-July as senior campaign representative for the organization’s Beyond Coal campaign.

Mike Walz, communications director for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, will be leaving at the beginning of July to join InfraREIT Capital Partners, LLC, based in Dallas.

Fred Shannon is hanging out his own lobbying and public affairs shingle after seven years with Hewlett-Packard. He'll keep that company as one of his clients and will work for others, too, in government procurement, legislation and such.

Jason Sabo has left United Ways of Texas after almost nine years to launch his own lobbying and consulting firm, Frontera Strategy.

Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, announced two major changes to her staff: Bill Wilson has been hired as director of the Veteran Affairs and Military Installations Committee, which Van de Putte chairs, and current staffer Heidi Kluber has been given new duties as the committee's clerk and as a legislative assistant.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed:

• Alan Nash of Stephenville as district attorney of the 266th Judicial District in Erath County for a term to expire at the next general election. Nash is an attorney and shareholder at Coan and Elliot P.C. and an adjunct professor at Tarleton State University.
• Jason Cashon of Stephenville as judge of the 266th Judicial District Court in Erath County for a term to expire at the next general election. Cashon is district attorney of the 266th Judicial District in Erath County and an adjunct professor at Tarleton State University.
• James L. “Jim” Bayless Jr. of Austin to the Texas State Cemetery Committee for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2017. The three-member committee oversees the day-to-day operations of the Texas State Cemetery.