Still No Decision on Redistricting Maps

House members look at redistricting maps in the House chamber on April 27, 2011
House members look at redistricting maps in the House chamber on April 27, 2011

Redistricting is right where we left it last week — in the U.S. Supreme Court.

The state asked the high court to block the use of political maps drawn by a panel of federal judges in San Antonio, and the Supremes have not yet emitted a ruling. It could come any time now.

Meanwhile, a panel of three federal judges in Washington, D.C. has asked everyone in the case to file arguments about which maps should be the basis of hearings on preclearance — the ones drawn by the Legislature or those drawn by the federal judges in San Antonio. They'll hold a pre-trial conference and gave the lawyers until next Wednesday — December 14 — to file briefs and responses. 

The next day — Thursday, December 15 — is the deadline for candidates to file if the primaries are to be held as scheduled on March 6.

Political Pre-bituaries

State Rep. Scott Hochberg, D-Houston, speaks to the press about two school finance measures filed on March 8, 2011
State Rep. Scott Hochberg, D-Houston, speaks to the press about two school finance measures filed on March 8, 2011

So far, 26 members of the Texas House have said they won't seek reelection — 27 if you count Rep. Fred Brown, R-Bryan, who resigned after the legislative session and is being replaced in a special election runoff next week.

The list could grow by next Thursday, the deadline for filing for the 2012 elections.

The quit list includes seven Democrats and 19 Republicans. Looked at another way, it includes 14 members who are leaving to run for other offices ranging from district attorney to state Senate, to Congress, and to the Railroad Commission. A dozen of the members are leaving with no announced plans for public office.

The House list so far: Jose Aliseda, R-Beeville; Rodney Anderson, R-Grand Prairie; Barbara Mallory Caraway, D-Dallas; Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio; Warren Chisum, R-Pampa; Joe Driver, R-Garland; Pete Gallego, D-Alpine; Veronica Gonzales, D-McAllen; Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills; Rick Hardcastle, R-Vernon; Will Hartnett, R-Dallas; Scott Hochberg, D-Houston; Charlie Howard, R-Sugar Land; Jim Jackson, R-Dallas; Lanham Lyne, R-Wichita Falls; Jerry Madden, R-Richardson; Ken Paxton, R-McKinney; Aaron Peña, R-Edinburg; Chente Quintanilla, D-Tornillo; Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown; Mark Shelton, R-Fort Worth; Burt Solomons, R-Carrollton; Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood; Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth; Randy Weber, R-Pearland; and Beverly Woolley, R-Houston.

Four state senators are leaving: Chris Harris, R-Arlington; Mike Jackson, R-La Porte; Steve Ogden, R-Bryan; and Florence Shapiro, R-Plano. Jackson, who's running for Congress, is the only one in that group seeking another office right now.

Two members of the State Board of Education won't be run: Mary Helen Berlanga, D-Corpus Christi; Bob Craig, R-Lubbock; and Marsha Farney, R-Georgetown. Farney is running for an open House seat.

And two members of the congressional delegation are leaving: Charlie Gonzalez, D-San Antonio; and Ron Paul, R-Surfside. Gonzalez is done; Paul is running for president.

There will be more incumbents going home. State Reps. Dan Flynn and Erwin Cain are paired, as are Todd Hunter and Geanie Morrison, James White and Tuffy Hamilton, and Connie Scott and Raul Torres. Only four of those eight Republicans can survive, so the list of House members who won't come back will have a minimum of 30 names on it — 20 percent of the House.

Holdouts, Laggards, and Court Watchers

Former state Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock, shown in 2011, took the reins as chancellor of the Texas Tech University System in 2014.
Former state Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock, shown in 2011, took the reins as chancellor of the Texas Tech University System in 2014.

Here's an interesting list: Incumbents who haven't filed yet. Some are waiting to see if the courts will change the political districts again. Some like to wait, to see whether any opponents surface, or to create a little tension to spark their campaigns. And some of the people on this list have probably filed, but their local party hasn't sent the names to the state party or put a list of filers up on the internet. Those are your caveats. Now, the lists:

Start near the top of the ballot, with Texas Supreme Court Justices David Medina and Don Willett, and go from there: Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Presiding Judge Sharon Keller; TCCA Judge Elsa Alcala; U.S. Reps. Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler; Ted Poe, R-Humble; Sam Johnson, R-Plano; Ralph Hall, R-Rockwall; Jeb Hensarling, R-Mesquite; Joe Barton, R-Ennis; John Culberson, R-Houston; Michael McCaul, R-Austin; Mike Conaway, R-Midland; Silvestre Reyes, D-El Paso; Bill Flores, R-Bryan; Randy Neugebauer, R-Lubbock; Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio; Pete Olsen, R-Sugar Land; Francisco "Quico" Canseco, R-San Antonio; Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin; John Carter, R-Georgetown; Pete Sessions, R-Dallas; and Blake Farenthold, R-Corpus Christi.

Ken Mercer, R-San Antonio; Terri Leo, R-Spring; and Mavis Knight, D-Dallas, haven't filed to run for more time on the State Board of Education.

Senators on the not-filed list include Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands; and Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock.

In the House, where there are a lot of people, there are a lot of not-yet-filed incumbents (not including the 26 who've said they're not coming back): Dan Flynn, R-Van; Erwin Cain, R-Como; Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola; Leo Berman, R-Tyler; Ron Reynolds, D-Missouri City; Geanie Morrison, R-Victoria; Raul Torres, R-Corpus Christi; Rene Oliveira, D-Brownsville; Eddie Lucio III, D-Brownsville; Elliott Naishtat, D-Austin; Charles "Doc" Anderson, R-Waco; Van Taylor, R-Plano; Dee Margo, R-El Paso; Charles Perry, R-Lubbock; John Frullo, R-Lubbock; Jim Landtroop, R-Plainview; Todd Smith, R-Euless; Helen Giddings, D-Dallas; John Garza, R-San Antonio; Joe Straus III, R-San Antonio; and Ken Legler, R-Pasadena.

Campaign Chatter

Rep. Tommy Merrit (left) and his Republican primary challenger David Simpson (right) unexpectedly run into each other as both court Longview's Chick-Fil-A breakfast club.
Rep. Tommy Merrit (left) and his Republican primary challenger David Simpson (right) unexpectedly run into each other as both court Longview's Chick-Fil-A breakfast club.

Former state Rep. Tommy Merritt, R-Longview, will challenge Rep. David Simpson, R-Longview, in a rematch of the 2010 primary where Simpson unseated Merritt. The first towel snaps from the Simpson camp came quickly after Merritt's announcement. They're zinging the former rep for voting against voter ID legislation and in favor of in-state tuition for illegal immigrants.

Two-term county commissioner Jerry Garza, a Democrat from Webb County, will run in the Democratic primary against veteran state Rep. Ryan Guillen, D-Rio Grande City. Garza said in August he was looking to challenge Democrat Tracy King, D-Batesville. But last week’s court-ordered interim maps placed Guillen’s HD-31 back in Webb County. Garza, a small-business owner and former news anchor, came out swinging, saying of his the incumbent, “He’s stood on the sidelines, and not taken the active approach to be an effective legislator and advocate for his district.”

Dallas dentist and horse racing advocate David Alameel, a Democrat, will run for Congress, he said in an email to supporters this week. He's challenging U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Ennis, whose redrawn congressional district is less Republican than the incumbent would like. It's still Republican, but it's also a district where more than half of the voting-age population is either Hispanic or African-American. In his email, Alameel said he'll start with $2 million in his campaign account.

The map-drawing federal judges in San Antonio gave state Rep. Ken Legler, R-Pasadena, a Democratic-leaning district, and he's drawn opposition. Pasadena City Councilman Ornaldo Ybarra says he'll run as a Democrat. Legler hasn't yet filed for re-election.

Texans for Lawsuit Reform continues the early endorsements, perhaps in hopes that the PAC's finances will scare away opponents from the TLR chosen. State Rep. Paul Workman, R-Austin, made the list. So did Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, who's running for the state Senate. That last endorsement included a blast at Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio — the incumbent Ames Jones is challenging — as an anti-tort reform candidate. His answer? They're cherry-picking to make him look bad. He's voted with the group, he says, 21 of 23 times.

That same PAC endorsed Republican Rep. Mark Shelton of Fort Worth in his bid for the SD-10 Senate seat. Shelton is challenging Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth.

Donna Campbell, who's also running against Wentworth, picked up an endorsement from former state Rep. Rick Green, R-Dripping Springs.

The political action committee affiliated with the Texas Association of Realtors is going against incumbent state Rep. Wayne Christian, R-Center, in favor of his challenger, Marshall Mayor Chris Paddie. A couple of days later, Paddie got the nod from TexPAC, the Texas Medical Association's campaign fund.

It's ag week, apparently, for Republican David Dewhurst. He picked up endorsements for his U.S. Senate race from the PACs of the Texas Farm Bureau and the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association and from BEEF-PAC, the political arm of the Texas Cattle Feeders Association. He closed the week with endorsements from thre former Texas Farm Bureau presidents.

The last state election of the year takes place next Tuesday in Brazos County, where there's a runoff for HD-14 between Bob Yancy and John Raney. Early voting is going on now. Raney picked up an endorsement from the Texas Medical Association's PAC. The two Republicans are vying for the spot emptied when state Rep. Fred Brown, R-Bryan, resigned earlier this year.

Our continually updated list of people who've filed for office can be found here. Our interactive maps showing, for any given address, the political districts in the current and future maps, is here.

Inside Intelligence: The Road to the White House

With a month to go before people in other states starting voting on presidential candidates, we asked the insiders for their current take on those races. First things first: They don't see much of a window for Gov. Rick Perry.

The insiders see Newt Gingrich as a prohibitive favorite in Iowa — 60 percent of them pick him to win that, with Texan Ron Paul in second, with 23 percent. Romney is the favorite of 86 percent of our insiders in New Hampshire (Perry didn't get a vote there, after getting just 5 percent of the insiders in Iowa). Florida is more of a toss-up, with 36 percent picking Gingrich to win and 31 percent choosing Romney. Six percent chose Perry.

When it's all said and done, 61 percent of the insiders thing Romney will be the Republican nominee, and 56 percent think, at this point, that Barack Obama will get a second term in the White House.

As always, the full verbatim comments are attached as a document, but here's a sampling:

.

Who do you think will win the GOP's Iowa Caucus?

• "Caucuses favor candidates with committed supporters. While there is certainly a ceiling to Paul's support, his followers are loyal to a fault. Recall that he only narrowly lost a straw poll to Bachmann a few months back. Given the splintering of the vote, he could win Iowa with under 25% of the vote."

• "The winner is not as important as who is in the top tier and who is not. Iowa may be more of an elimination contest. Candidates at the bottom and in single digits can 'turn off the lights, the party's over'."

• "Romney's still in good shape if he finishes second."

• "Newt will under-perform due to organization broadly and with women specifically. The top four will be bunched up."

.

Who do you think will win the GOP's New Hampshire primary?

• "I can't wait for his victory speech when he says, 'My friends' to a crowd made up of people who don't like him very much."

• "And then wins Nevada, 2nd or 3rd in Florida, wins Maine and battles Newt at convention for the nomination."

• "Romney will win, but his margin will not be as impressive as he hoped."

• "Romney will win in his backyard. If he doesn't, he is in SERIOUS trouble."

.

Who do you think will win the GOP's Florida primary?

• "It just depends on what happens beforehand."

• "A Romney win in Florida coupled with a New Hampshire victory and a credible finish in South Carolina would make him the presumed nominee."

• "Perry will win SC, team up w/ Newt and beat Romney in FL."

• "Gingrich has a history of grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory, and two months is a long time away."

• "It's going to depend on who is still in the race. I don't think Gingrich is going to raise enough dollars to be a contender in Florida."

.

Who do you think will be the Republican nominee for president?

• "At the end of the day, I think Republican voters will accept that Romney represents their best chance to retake the White House, and will hold their noses and nominate him."

• "Perry has a narrow path, but Newt and Romney have major problems."

• "Wait. One of these jackwagons is going to be the nominee? Bahahahahahahahahahaha!"

• "If Gingrich is nominated, Obama's chances improve markedly. Romney would be a stronger opponent."

• "Anyone else think Tan Parker should have gone ahead and run? He'd have as good a shot as anyone else on this list."

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Who do you think will win the presidency in November?

• "Much depends on the trajectory of the economy over the next 6-9 months. Right now, I give Obama a slight edge but not much of one. Circumstances, the GOP nominee, etc, could either expand that edge or eliminate it. The 2012 election will likely be very close."

• "The state of the economy will determine who will win the 2012 general election. If the economy is prospering, President Obama will be re-elected; the electorate will gladly provide him an opportunity keep moving forward. However, if the economy continues to stager or worsen the Republican nominee will be elected as our next president."

• "Republicans, as always, over-reached and have lost their momentum from 2010 -- plus the economy is ticking up. The party of mid-term elections will be reminded of their impotence."

• "Obama's lost a lot of luster compared to 4 years ago, but the R's have nothing."

• "Romney will attract independents and disaffected 08 Obama voters, but will lower the turnout among the party faithful. Anyone else will have the support of the rabid, but scare away the independents. Either way, Obama (amazingly) gets four more years to try to get it right."

• "If Romney is the GOP nominee, then Romney. If Gingrich is the GOP nominee, then Obama."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Brandon Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, James Aldrete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Doc Arnold, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Reggie Bashur, Walt Baum, Leland Beatty, Dave Beckwith, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Terri Burke, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, William Chapman, Elizabeth Christian, George Cofer, Rick Cofer, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Hector De Leon, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Alan Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Terry Frakes, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Bill Hammond, Sandy Haverlah, Albert Hawkins, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Homero Lucero, Matt Mackowiak, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Bill Pewitt, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, John Pitts, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Kim Ross, Jason Sabo, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Steve Scurlock, Christopher Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Russ Tidwell, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Michael Wilt, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Lee Woods, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Gov. Rick Perry is showing no signs of ending his presidential bid in the face of low poll numbers, and is instead investing $1 million in ad time in Iowa in advance of the caucuses three weeks away. A new survey done for the Perry campaign shows him in third place in Iowa but also found that the race is far from settled: 67 percent of respondents admitted that they may change their mind before the vote, and with 67 percent of likely caucus-goers saying they view him favorably, Perry may be the beneficiary of those that are on the fence or not strongly committed to another candidate. Most conversation in that campaign has focused on Perry's newest commercial.

As a crucial deadline loomed for investors in Austin’s Formula One track, the group reached a deal with the race’s founder, Bernie Ecclestone, to keep the race on schedule. The F1 council kept the race, set to launch November 2012, on the books, and construction on the racetrack, which stalled last month over negotiations, was set to resume immediately. The state of Texas has committed $25 million a year to the race, claiming that the investment will result in increased tax revenue. One race per year has been scheduled for 10 years. Comptroller Susan Combs, who earlier promised the promoters a check in advance of the first race, now says the state won't contribute until after that first race is run in November 2012.

An El Paso businessman convicted of fraud and bribery has made thousands of dollars of campaign contributions across the state, and beneficiaries are now grappling with how to handle the money and the politics. No law requires them to return the money, but Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, who were recipients of Robert Jones’ largesse, said they would donate his contributions to charity. Gov. Rick Perry received at least $80,000 in contributions from Jones but has yet to say how he will handle the funds.

Three hospitals, 44 clinics and a dialysis center make up the Hospital District of Harris County, and the facilities are over capacity. One-third of the adult population in Harris County has no medical insurance and relies on the district for care. The system is flooded with calls, and patients face a choice between long waits or no access to primary care doctors. Dr. Robert Trenschel, who oversees the clinics, quantified the problem by analyzing data from system records. His research showed that doctors employed by the district sustain patient loads that are over the recommended maximum.

After months of negotiations, the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston has reached an agreement with the Texas Department of Criminal Justice to continue providing medical services throughout the state’s prisons. UTMB has been providing about 80 percent of health services for the state’s inmates but had complained that it was losing money on the deal. The new contract calls on the Legislative Budget Board to make funds available to reimburse UTMB on a cost basis. The UT Board of Regents and the TDCJ must approve the contract.

A study initiated by the BP oil spill in 2010 has resulted in a pledge of $50 million from the federal government to pay for environmental restoration along the Texas Gulf Coast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service will oversee programs designed to restore ecosystems and help the Gulf Coast area become more resilient in the face of natural or man-made disasters. The funds will be distributed over the course of three years and are targeted at three Texas watersheds: the Kuy Creek-Guadalupe River, the Guadalupe River-South Guadalupe River and the Hynes Bay-San Antonio Bay.

The City of Arlington revised its rules governing gas drilling. A new ordinance was passed unanimously, 7-0, after officials spent a year ironing out new regulations that will require drillers to install safeguards near drilling sites but also simplify the permit process, allowing faster turnaround time to begin drilling.

If Texans are strapped for cash, they haven't cut back on lottery tickets. Record sales of $3.8 billion were reported for the year, with the state’s share hitting $1.02 billion. Lottery officials said the bounty was the result of strong sales of instant tickets and the growing popularity of Powerball.

Political People and their Moves

Speaker Joe Straus appointed Paul Hobbyof Houston to the Texas Ethics Commission, crossing the partisan divide to name a Democrat to that panel. Hobby was the Democratic nominee for comptroller in 1998, losing a close race to Carole Keeton Strayhorn (back when her name was Rylander). Hobby runs Genesis Park, LP, a private equity firm he co-founded in 1999, and is the president of the Houston branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

 

• Straus also tapped Reps. Harold Dutton, D-Houston, and Walter "Four" Price, R-Amarillo, to the Sunset Advisory Commission. Dutton is chairman of the House Committee on Urban Affairs and serves on the House Committee on Public Education. Price, getting a rare appointment for a freshman legislator, serves on the House Committee on Culture, Recreation and Tourism and on the House Committee on Natural Resources.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed Linda Ryan Thomas of Longview as the presiding officer of the North East Texas Regional Mobility Authority. Thomas is partner at Butter-Ryan Partners Ltd.

• He named Dave Scott of Richmond chairman of the Brazos River Authority Board of Directors. Scott is a rancher and retired executive vice president of Port City Stockyard Company.

• The govenor reappointed Ada Brown of Plano to the Texas Public Safety Commission. Brown is an attorney at McKool Smith P.C. and a former Dallas County Criminal Court judge.

Kenneth Dierschke was elected to his 10th term as president of the state’s largest farm organization, the Texas Farm Bureau.

The U.S. Senate confirmed James Rodney Gilstrap’s nomination for a federal judgeship in Marshall.

The Commission on State Emergency Communications announced that Executive Director Paul Mallett will be retiring from the agency, and promoted Kelli Merriweather to the position.

The Texas Association of Manufacturer’s executive director, Luke Bellsnyder, announced his resignation from the Association, effective Dec. 31. He intends to continue working with the association on a contract basis.

Quotes of the Week

I’m not going to kiss his ring and I’m not going to kiss any other part of his anatomy. This is exactly what is wrong with politics. It’s show business over substance.

Jon Huntsman, telling Fox News he won't appear at the Donald Trump debate

If you voted to prevent sickness from bacterial diarrhea, you got a bad “fiscal conservative” rating. In other words, Sullivan supported bacterial diarrhea.  I opposed it.

Sen. Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, blasting Empower Texans and its director, Michael Quinn Sullivan, in an editorial for a legislative vote included in the group's ranking of lawmakers

If you're someone with a lot of money and you want to affect the election, you get to choose whether you're going to do so secretly, or whether you're going to do so with public disclosure.

Former FEC Chairman Trevor Potter, on the current state of campaign finance law

You guys are a bigger pain than the back surgery.

Rick Perry to CNN's Wolf Blitzer on how the governor's stem-call procedure has affected his campaign

So I had fond memories. Also, they gave me a shotgun at Christmas, which was kind of embarrassing. But that was a token of love in Texas, I gather.

David Freeman, former head of the LCRA, on working for a board of directors that didn't micromanage the agency