Maps Ensure Melees in March, Peace in November

General elections in Texas will be less competitive than ever under the redistricting maps approved by the Legislature earlier this year. Lawmakers drew maps for the Texas House, the Texas Senate and the congressional delegation likely to leave only a handful of races in question after the party primaries each March.

The districts could change. A three-judge federal panel has been hearing challenges to the redistricting plans in San Antonio for the last two weeks. They could make small or large changes to any or all of the maps, or leave them like they are.

But for now, voters, candidates, contributors, consultants and everyone else has only the Legislature's maps as a guide. They're making their plans according to these, knowing they can scramble later if need be. And the takeaway is simple: Texas has a strongly Republican map and the political threats to incumbents, if any, will come in primaries and not in general elections.

The notable characteristic of the maps is how strictly they corral partisans into districts where they're safe, for the most part, from the opposition party.

• Only three of the 150 districts in the Texas House are occupied by members whose partisan tags don't match the voting in their districts. And they're all marginal districts. Democrat Craig Eiland of Galveston is in a district where Republicans won by a scant 2.3 percentage points. Republican Aaron Peña of Edinburg's district voted Democratic by 3.1 points. And Republicans Connie Scott and Raul Torres of Corpus Christi are paired in a district where Democrats dominated Republicans by 7 percentage points, on average.

• Only six of the 150 House districts were won by one party or the other by less than 10 percentage points. The action in those, unless voters change their behavior, will be in the Republican and Democratic primaries — not in the general elections. It's worth noting here that the Texas electorate is capable of mood swings, as evidenced in the two elections used for the basis of this: 2008 and 2010.

• Most of the districts in the House are very, very safe for the party in power: 72 Republican seats had indexes higher than 25, and 31 Democratic seats had numbers that high. In other words, 103 of the newly drawn legislative districts were carried by statewide candidates of the party in power by 25 percentage points or more.

• By the numbers, 100 seats have Republican indexes and 50 have Democratic indexes. Unless the maps change, or voters change, the Republicans will have a safe majority for the next decade. And it's safe to say that the winning candidates from both parties will be the ones who satisfy primary voters and not general election voters. There's no incentive for anyone to run to the middle of the road.

• Only one state senator — Democrat Wendy Davis of Fort Worth — represents a district where voters favored the other party in the 2008 and 2010 elections. Senate Republicans drew themselves 20 safe seats and left 11 for the Democrats.

• Of the 31 seats in the Senate, five held by Democrats and 16 held by Republicans had indexes higher than 25. Only two, both held by Democrats, had indexes lower than 10 percent.

• One congressional district — CD-23, held by Republican Francisco "Quico" Canseco of San Antonio — has an index of 10. By the numbers, that's the closest thing to a competitive gerneral election district in the 36-seat congressional delegation.

• Four Democrats and 14 Republicans in the delegation will represent districts with indexes over 25.

For the TWI in interactive form — sortable by district, name, party, TWI and rank — check out these tables. Or you can grab the attached PDF version and print it out.

The Texas Weekly Index

The TWI is the difference between the average vote for statewide Republicans and the average for statewide Democrats in each district in contested statewide general elections in 2008 and 2010. If it's red (a negative number), it's a Republican district. If it's blue, it's Democratic territory. Example: in Smithee's HD-86, statewide Republicans beat statewide Democrats by an average of 63.1 percentage points in races featuring both parties in the 2008 and 2010 general elections. The statewide average is -17.1 percent. Choose whether you want House, Senate or Congressional charts, and sort by district, ranking, party, TWI, or by the names of the incumbents.

 

Campaign Chatter

State Rep. Will Hartnett (r), R-Dallas, listens to a question from the back mike as State Rep. Rene' Oliveira (l), D-Brownsville, waits on May 6, 2011.
State Rep. Will Hartnett (r), R-Dallas, listens to a question from the back mike as State Rep. Rene' Oliveira (l), D-Brownsville, waits on May 6, 2011.

State Rep. Will Hartnett, R-Dallas, is talking his way out of office. He hasn't made an announcement, but told the Quorum Report he's thinking about leaving. Hartnett is in his 11th term in office.

He'd be joining a growing herd. Rep. Charlie Howard, R-Sugar Land, decided not to run again. He's got medical work on his jaw ahead and says he'll hang up the state work to worry about that. He will, however, serve out his term. There are already two Republicans and a Democrat in that race. Sugar Land Mayor Pro Tem Jacquie Chaumette and Sonal Bhuchar, a Fort Bend ISD Board Trustee, were in before Howard got out (and he says he won't endorse either of them. And Vy Nguyen, a Democratic attorney, says she thinks a Democrat can win in that district if they put together the right coalition. It's her first run for office.

Two other incumbents — freshmen Lanham Lyne of Wichita Falls and Jose Aliseda of Beeville, say they won't be back. Lyne says he's done with the Legislature but not necessarily with public service; Aliseda is going home to run for district attorney. James Frank, a Wichita Falls Republican and businessman, says he'll run for Lyne's seat.

Randy Weber wants to move from state representative to U.S. Representative. The Pearland Republican said this afternoon that he'll run in the place now held by U.S. Ron Paul, R-Surfside.

Paul, who's running for the GOP nomination for president, has said he won't seek reelection next year.

Weber announced an exploratory effort in July and says he found the support he was looking for. He's been in the Texas House since 2009 and served on the Pearland City Council for six years before that.

That looks to be a busy primary. Felicia Harris, an attorney and a current Pearland City Council member, is running in the GOP primary, and so is Michael Truncale of Jefferson County, a regent at the Texas State University System and a member of the State Republican Executive Committee.

• State Rep. Rodney Anderson, R-Grand Prairie, is saying on paper what he's been saying on the phone and in person for weeks: He plans to run for state Senate against incumbent Republican Chris Harris of Arlington. Anderson won his House seat in November, knocking off incumbent Democrat Kirk England in a squeaker.

Mike Schofield, a former aide to Gov. Rick Perry and a former GOP House candidate, will try again. He'll run for the spot now held by Beverly Woolley, R-Houston. Schofield lost a primary runoff to Rep. Jim Murphy in 2006. This time, he'll face former Houston City Council member Pam Holm.

• Former Judge Jim Pruitt, now an attorney in Rockwall, will run in the Republican primary for the newly drawn HD-33 in the Texas House. He was a Dallas County criminal court judge. That 's a weird district, starting in Rockwall County and sweeping north into Collin County, where it takes in the eastern and northern borders and much of the western edges without taking any of the middle of that county.

• No surprises here: Rep. Eddie Lucio III, D-Brownsville, says he'll seek reelection next year. He's in his third term. Rep. Sergio Muñoz Jr., D-Mission, says he'll try to come back. State Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, will seek reelection. He's the new head of the Senate's Democratic Caucus. Rep. Jason Isaac, R-Dripping Springs, will try for a second term. His name popped up in rumors for an open congressional seat, but he'll stick. Rep. Ron Reynolds, D-Missouri City, will seek reelection. Rep. Michael "Tuffy" Hamilton, R-Lumberton, will seek another two years, running from a district where he's paired with Rep. James White, R-Lufkin. And Rep. Chuck Hopson, R-Jacksonville, will seek another term.

Elizabeth Ames Jones says there is no truth to rumors that she's getting out of the U.S. Senate race. It's bunk. "Not only am I running, I plan to win," she says. "You heard it from the candidate's mouth — I am all in."

Inside Intelligence: Parched

Amidst a record-setting drought and neighborhood-devouring wildfires, we asked the insiders this week about water and fire policy.

They're split on whether to turn temporary water restrictions — on watering lawns, washing cars, filling pools and such — into permanent limitations. They're split — though slightly against — restrictions on development in areas that are prone to fires.

A clear majority — 59 percent — says the state should spend more on fire prevention. And 87 percent say state and local governments should do more to prepare or cope with water shortages in Texas.

In their comments, many of the insiders said the state ought to fund the water plans already approved by the Legislature.

As always, we've attached a full set of their responses; a sampling of those follows.

Texas cities are limiting water use in the midst of the drought; should some restrictions be permanent?

• "Why? If these restrictions were in place the last 5, 10 years, it would have zero effect on whether or not a drought occurs."

• "What is wrong with each city continuing to evaluate water restrictions based on local conditions? In my area, despite routine draught, a couple of big rains refills the aquifer."

• "Policies should be set based on conditions. If we conserve to plan for the next 50-year drought we will greatly damage some economic development. Instead limitations should kick in earlier when conditions hit a higher mark. Don't wait for such a disaster."

• "Shutting the water off for lawn care folks will rock the gravel and quarry guys' world. Nobody complains about watering or cutting their yards in El Paso"

• "Until new reservoirs or desal plants are built, conservation is the greatest source of 'new' water. It makes sense to implement some of the less draconian restrictions on a full time basis."

• "Let's be honest - the pride in a green lawn year round just isn't that appealing any more."

• "This is Texas. We could have floods tomorrow."

• "Agriculture is the biggest user of water. Irrigators should bear the biggest responsibility for conservation and paying for a statewide water plan."

• "We should... but we won't."

Should the state spend more on fire prevention?

• "No. The state spends too much money already."

• "Its easy to say this now, but obviously, yes. I do think we should have more controlled burns when the long term fire season permits it - the Bastrop State Park was probably full of thatch."

• "Every crisis should not become an opportunity for bureaucratic growth and more government spending."

• "Local funding will insure local control, which is paramount in all types of natural disasters."

• "No, the state should spend more on using fire as a land management tool. Controlled fires rarely result in the tragic property/life losses we're witnessing. With all due respect, you are asking Exactly the wrong question and framing the dialogue backasswards. Fire 'prevention' is a lose/lose/lose. Using fire early and often as an effective public safety and land management tool is always a win/win/win."

• "Maybe a no rainy day fund would be in order"

Should development in areas prone to fire be limited?

• "No. It's called private property for a reason."

• "All living quarters should be required to have a cleared perimeter around them. Insurance rates should reflect failure to do so. No subsidies like we have for dumb people living in coastal and flood areas."

• "The Insurance market will probably take care of that, much as it has development in 100 year flood plains."

• "All areas of Texas are prone to fire...so what are we going to do? Limit all development across the state? That is not an answer."

• "It is hard to see the difference between building in some of these places and building on the beach."

• "But I as a taxpayer shouldn't have to pay for this stupidity."

Periodic water shortages are a fact of nature in Texas; should state or local government be doing anything more to prepare or cope with them?

• "It may take a change in culture to convince everyone that they don't need a St Augustine lawn. It will be a long and painful road to conservation, but it's a path that we must embark on."

• "Since nature is apparently changing, the likelihood of more frequent droughts is probably going to increase. El Paso has gotten ahead of the curve; the rest of the state should follow its example."

• "One major question for next session is whether the Legislature finally funds the $53 billion State Water Plan, or whether the strict 'no new taxes/fees' philosophy keeps pushing that off to another day. Sometimes it feels like water supply is the issue of the future - but always will be."

• "The state needs to fund its water plan."

• "Land planning? But if we are against health care imagine the uproar over land use planning in front yards. Get rid of all those water hog Caribbean grasses in dessert prone parts of Texas would be a start. Or; they could just let the market do its magic and go broke like they did in the 50's."

• "This is putting a sharp focus on the need to fund and implement the state water plan which calls for 23 percent of our future water supply to come from conservation. We can't just cross our fingers--it is time to act."

• "I don't like the idea of reactionary policy-making to extraordinary natural phenomena."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Reggie Bashur, Walt Baum, Luke Bellsnyder, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Jay Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Janis Carter, William Chapman, George Cofer, Rick Cofer, John Colyandro, Kevin Cooper, Hector De Leon, Tom Duffy, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Alan Erwin, Ryan Erwin, Jon Fisher, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Scott Gilmore, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Billy Hamilton, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Laura Huffman, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Dan McClung, Bee Moorhead, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Bill Ratliff, Carl Richie, Jason Sabo, Mark Sanders, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Trey Trainor, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Ellen Williams, Michael Wilt, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

 

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

New rules from the Environmental Protection Agency governing air quality are threatening to shut down two coal-fired power plants in Northeast Texas. The owner of the plant, Luminant, has filed suit against the EPA to delay enforcement of the so-called Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and said the two closures would force 500 layoffs and could lead to rolling blackouts. Company and state officials protested that Luminant needed more time to meet the new regulation and said Texas was not told of the rule until six months before it was to take effect.

Gov. Rick Perry may tout the power of the states, but when it came to fighting local wildfires, he turned to the federal government, asking for and receiving federal dollars to battle Texas' record number of blazes. Struggling against fires that have burned millions of acres this spring and summer, fire departments have seen their budgets slashed, and officials are concerned that when money from grants is no longer available, firefighters will be left with inadequate resources to fund their daily operations.

With the massive Bastrop County wildfire about 70 percent contained, officials have started taking stock of the damage. County officials reported that about one-fourth of Bastrop County has burned: 34,000 acres and 1,500 homes were obliterated. The local power company, Bluebonnet Electric Cooperative, announced that power still hadn't been restored to more than 2,000 meters and that it could take several weeks until the grid is functioning normally. The Federal Emergency Management Agency also recently came to town to set up a field office at which residents could apply for assistance, but with conditions still conducive for additional flare-ups, not all residents have been allowed back into their homes.

The contentious battle in El Paso to recall the Mayor John Cook and two council members took a new twist this week as a county court judge issued an order stopping recall proceedings until a hearing could take place in his court. The judge reversed his decision a day later, and Cook is now taking his fight to the El Paso Court of Appeals. At issue is the method used by the group to gather signatures for the recall. The mayor has alleged that signatures were gathered with the support of corporations and churches — a violation of election code. Pastor Tom Brown has led the effort to recall the city officials for their votes in favor of extending benefits to gay and unmarried partners of city employees.

A major redevelopment project in McAllen that would include an amusement park hit a snag when city commissioners gave the developer’s proposal a unanimous thumbs-down. The city’s old reservoir is being replaced, and because it occupies valuable real estate, it has inspired a redevelopment plan that includes an amusement park and a River Walk-style attraction. Commissioners objected to the idea put forth by McAllen Attractions Inc., citing the contractor’s lack of success with previous projects. The company has strong ties to the city’s mayor — his sons are major players in the firm — which also gave commissioners pause, even though the mayor had recused himself from discussions and votes on the matter and had filed required conflict-of-interest documents.

Census data released this week painted a bleak picture of Texans' economic prospects. The state was ranked highest in the number of uninsured people, and the poverty rate was 18.4 percent, above the national average of 15.1 percent. Texas mirrored the rest of the nation by showing a decrease in median income to $47,464 in 2010, a figure below the national median.

Judicial nominees have been cooling their heels across the state waiting for confirmation, but this week the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee took action on four potential U.S. attorneys for the state, confirming them and sending their names to the full Senate for final confirmation. They are supported by Texas' two Republican senators and are expected to win confirmation easily. A vote on a nominee for a federal judge in the Eastern District of Texas was delayed but not expected to be controversial.

In federal court in San Antonio, three congressional Democrats — Eddie Bernice Johnson, Henry Cuellar and Al Greentestified that their constituencies weren’t accounted for in Texas' new Republican-backed redistricting maps, which the governor signed into law this year but now face judicial scrutiny. The hearing, brought by Democrats concerned with minority representation, is expected to wrap up by the end of the week.

Houston’s growing population is leaving an imprint on its municipal government. Two new seats will be added to the City Council, and with term limits forcing three members off, the new council will have five newcomers. Additionally, with districts redrawn, some Houstonians will find themselves in new political neighborhoods. The race receiving the most attention has pitted incumbent Jolanda Jones, facing opposition from the city's police union, against three challengers. The election is set for Nov. 8.

Political People and their Moves

President Barack Obama nominated Judge David Campos Guaderrama to serve on the United States District Court bench for the Western District of Texas. He's been a U.S. Magistrate Judge for almost a year and was a state district judge in El Paso for 15 years before that. Guaderrama was also El Paso County's first chief public defender.

Gov. Rick Perry has been on the road a lot, but his appointments office has been busy.

• He appointed seven members to the Texas Commission on the Arts. Rita E. Baca of El Paso is a business fashion consultant and sales representative for P and G Prestige. Andrew Barlow of Austin is founder and CEO of Overflow Communications. Patricia “Patty” Bryant of Amarillo is owner of Patty A. Bryant Communications. David Garza of Brownsville is a partner at the Garza & Garza law firm. Mila Gibson of Sweetwater is founder and former director of the Amarillo Opera, and a retired music professor at Amarillo College. Ronald “Ronnie” Sanders of San Antonio is a fine arts teacher in the San Antonio Independent School District and a former collegiate choral director. Marsha Wilson Rappaport of Galveston is director of grants management and development for St. Vincent’s House.

• The governor appointed four members to the Texas Animal Health Commission. Brandon Bouma of Plainview is partner and manager of Legacy Farms, manager of Heifer Ranch at Arroyo Seco, and owner and manager of BHB Farms. Thomas Kezar of Dripping Springs is owner and operator of CTN Educational Services. Ernie Morales of Devine is owner of Morales Feed Lots. Michael Vickers of Falfurrias is owner and president of Las Palmas Veterinary Hospital.

• Perry named three members to the State Board of Veterinary Medical Examiners. Janie Allen Carpenter of Garland is a veterinarian at Richardson Veterinary Clinic. Joe Mac King of Dallas is a veterinarian and owner of King Veterinary Associates. Chad Upham of Boerne is a partner at the Nunley Firm.

• He reappointed Steven M. Weinberg of Colleyville to the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission. Weinberg is a retired associate director of the U.S. Peace Corps.

• The Guv named six members to the Texas Low-Level Radioactive Waste Compact Commission. Richard Dolgener of Andrews is the Andrews County judge. Eric Doyal of Houston is a senior associate at Capital Point Partners. Milton Lee II of San Antonio is a registered professional engineer and retired CEO of CPS Energy. Linda Morris of Waco is a licensed medical health physicist, and an associate professor and chair of the Texas State Technical College Waco Environmental Health and Safety and Radiation Protection Technologies departments. John Matthew Salsman of College Station is a certified health physicist, and director of Environmental Health and Safety at Texas A&M University. Robert Wilson of Lockhart is an attorney and partner at Jackson, Sjoberg, McCarthy and Wilson.

• And Perry appointed four members to Humanities Texas. Maceo Crenshaw Dailey Jr. of El Paso is director of the University of Texas at El Paso African American Studies Program and an associate professor in the Department of History. Joy Ann Havran of Fort Worth is a certified public accountant. Polly Sowell of Austin is retired, and a community volunteer. Venus Strawn of Austin is a retired nurse and community volunteer.

 

 

Quotes of the Week

It was a $5,000 contribution that I had received from them. I raise about $30 million. And if you’re saying that I can be bought for $5,000, I’m offended.

Gov. Rick Perry, responding to Michele Bachmann during a debate. She suggested his HPV mandate was tied to a contribution from Merck, the maker of the vaccine.

It became pretty obvious early on that the truth didn't matter. You could make the truth at the mic. You could say whatever you wanted to say and depending on what was being reported, that was the truth.

Rep. Jose Aliseda, R-Beeville, on his freshman legislative session.

I don't know whether it's hubris, chutzpah or hallucination, but the problems she has make her the most vulnerable. If there's any statewide Republican nominee that would be vulnerable, it would be Susan Combs.

Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, who expects to run against Combs for lieutenant governor in 2014.

He's not going to get it, if I plan on giving it, until he asks. Bush asked me. Mitt Romney asked me in the back room. I don't give people endorsements unless they ask.

Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, on whether he'll endorse Perry's presidential bid.

Let's not pretend the state didn't know the racial implications of what they were doing. They knew it at every click of the mouse in drawing the map.

Redistricting lawyer Gerry Hebert, quoted by the San Antonio Express-News