It simultaneously looks as though they will finish on time and as though they'll come to pieces, forcing a special session.

Everyone is pooped. The session is almost over. Everything is more or less done, except for the budget — the only thing that has to pass.

Everything in the budget is done, except for school finance. That particular topic has been busting up the last days of legislative sessions for decades. It's the issue most likely to prompt a special session at this point, though there's also been overtime talk about congressional redistricting, about the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association, and about sanctuary cities.

School finance, a critical part of the budget, would certainly prompt Gov. Rick Perry to call lawmakers back to Austin. The others aren't necessarily good bets, but could get tacked onto a special session called for something else.

School district printouts might well be the culprits. The House voted out the budget two months ago without members seeing how the cuts in public schools would affect individual school districts and, by extension, their own political fortunes. Voters might be just fine with the thrift — nobody really knows — but the possibility that they won't be okay has everyone on edge. Now that there are printouts, it's a harder vote for lawmakers to cast. They can't be sure of the reactions, but the amount of damage is clear. Now, lawmakers are figuring out where the cuts fall (keep reading) and which school districts get what from the state.

Sometime in July, the local districts will settle on their budget numbers and their tax rates and so on. If there's pain there, who gets the blame? School board members who actually raised taxes and or made cuts? Local state legislators who put the school districts in that position. In the alternative, who gets the credit if voters are happy with the results?

The thing at the end — there's always a thing at the end — might turn out to be the "Don't Touch My Junk" bill that died (apparently) in the Senate this week. Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, thought he had a surefire populist issue and found he couldn't get the votes to bring it up. He blamed Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, flaring up in the kind of sudden-and-yet-on-message way that sometimes begins an election campaign. "Someone who will not stand up to the federal government, you have to ask yourself, is that the kind of person we need in the U.S. Senate?" Patrick asked.

We'll find out as early as this week whether he wants to join the field of Republicans running for the U.S. Senate. Dewhurst is the frontrunner in that pack at the moment. Maybe government groping at airports will be a campaign theme.

Cramming for Finals

Negotiators in both chambers agreed to a budget Thursday morning. But it’s a missing one piece: school finance.

The House and Senate are still haggling over what the plan to distribute the $4 billion reduction in state funding to public education should look like. And the death of a key education fiscal matters bill on the House floor Monday ensured that any changes to school finance formulas will happen in conference committee over SB 1811, the legislation generating the non-tax revenue in the form of deferrals and accelerated tax payments that's essential to balancing the budget.

House members favor a short-term solution that would keep current law in place and enact the same percentage cut — the most recent figure puts that at 6 percent — to all districts across the board. That would happen through tweaking the process known under current law as “proration” and leaving any significant policy changes addressing the target revenue system or the structural deficit to the 83rd Legislature.

"I think we will park school finance where it is for a couple of years and come back," said Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock, R-Killeen. "I hope that most of you will pledge to study up some about school finance between now and when we come back."

The problem with any one-size-fits-all approach, according to the Equity Center, a research and lobbying organization that advocates on behalf of poorer districts, is that it puts most of the hurt on districts that have the least. A 6 percent reduction could barely make a dent in the budget of a wealthy district while forcing serious restructuring in one that is already cash-strapped.

That’s why the Senate isn’t ready to give up on more long-term adjustments to school funding. What to do with the target revenue, the system that, because of the promise the Legislature made to districts in 2006 when it reduced property tax rates, means some districts aren’t funded on a cost-based model but rather what they received per student in property tax rates that year.

A proposal from Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, distributes the cuts on a sliding scale across districts, making deeper reductions to those that have benefited most from the target revenue system, and it makes a commitment to eliminating the funding mechanism completely by 2017.

Those in charge of the talks they will come out of negotiations with a hybrid model. A possibility: distributing $2 billion of the cuts through proration the first year, then taking $2 billion from target revenue reserves in the second. Whether they can reach a compromise palatable to both bodies depends on how much senators — particularly Sens. Robert Duncan, R- Lubbock, and Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, two SB 1811 conferees — are willing to budge on target revenue.

Still Seeking Sanctuary

With hours ticking away until sine die, the legislation that would prohibit local entities from enacting policies that prevent local law enforcement from inquiring about immigration status of persons arrested or detained is on life support in the Senate.

At first glance, House Bill 12 by Rep. Burt Solomons, R-Carrollton, appears dead. It sailed out of the House on a party-line vote but failed to make to the Senate floor. Senate sponsor Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, couldn’t convince two of the 12 Democrats to support the measure and suspend the two-thirds rule. And Williams appeared to kill his own bill at an earlier stage when he erased it in favor of a committee substitute dealing with border and homeland security. Two days later, Williams successfully revived the bill, reconsidering the substitute and reverting back to the former language.

Then he couldn't get the votes to bring it up. There is still talk that the legislation could resurface in a conference committee report on something else. That appears to be the last chance for the bill, one of the governor's six emergency issues.

Seven "Distractions"

For months, the higher education community has been consumed by a debate about a specific set of proposed reforms, known as “the seven breakthrough solutions.” They were written by Austin businessman and Acton School of Business founder Jeff Sandefer. Along with Gov. Rick Perry and the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tank, Sandefer, who is a Perry donor and a TPPF board member, has encouraged regents to implement his proposals since 2008.

But now, it appears that the “breakthrough solutions” might be on the verge of reform themselves. At a meeting of the Texas A&M University System Board of Regents, a group that has been the most pro-active about implementing the reforms, chairman Richard Box appeared to shrug off the proposals entirely. He said that he understood the “seven solutions” to be “simply suggestions” with which to frame a conversation about how to improve boost productivity at universities as financial resources became more constrained. “But they have also become a distraction from an important conversation,” he said, adding that it was time to “move on.”

After the meeting, he went a step further, saying that the “seven solutions” have become “a pejorative” and that it's time to “change the conversation.”

TPPF President and CEO Brooke Rollins’ response indicated that the reforms might be revisable in the wake of significant backlash from faculty and alumni of the state’s flagship institutions, the University of Texas at Austin, and Texas A&M University-College Station.

"As our '7 Breakthrough Solutions' have been further studied and implemented, we have gained insights that are causing us to refine those solutions and consider new approaches,” she wrote in an email. “We welcome additional ideas about how to improve higher education and commit ourselves to continuing an open, public dialogue on this issue."

Back in April, Perry spokesman Mark Miner said the governor was not committed to the specific reforms. “There are bits and pieces of all of them that the governor has talked about in the past, but to say that they are packaged and these are the seven points the governor is pushing is not accurate,” Miner said.

Faculty members at A&M were distrustful that the reforms were indeed being shrugged off or changed. John Edens, a professor of psychology said it was difficult to tell if policymakers were “saying one thing and doing another or if there has been a change in course.”

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Eyes have turned once again to Texas and tongues are wagging about the possibility of a Rick Perry presidential bid. After former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels announced they wouldn’t be running, speculation mounted about a potential Perry candidacy. Although the governor continues to deny that he is in the hunt, talk show host Rush Limbaugh found the subject compelling enough to spend 20 minutes on his show extolling Perry’s virtues and bemoaning the current state of the Republican field. Other pundits wonder if Perry’s playing it cool and waiting to be summoned as party insiders grow more dissatisfied with their choices.

State budget woes aren’t the only problem plaguing Texas cities. Millions of dollars in funds that were available to cities last year under the Urban Areas Security Initiative have been cut from the federal budget, affecting Austin, El Paso and San Antonio. The three cities received more than $14.5 million under the anti-terror program in the last budget, but funds will now be restricted to the cities highest at risk as identified by the Department of Homeland Security.

Texas’ election calendar drew attention this week as lawmakers attempted to change primary dates to give overseas and military personnel more time to vote. Given the choice between moving the primary to April or moving the filing deadline up a month, lawmakers chose the latter, leaving the Texas primary in March. Moving the filing deadline to December will require a Texas constitutional amendment, but many political observers feel it’s important to keep the primary as early in the year as possible to keep Texas from having no influence on presidential elections.

A nonprofit research group has stirred controversy by reporting that the majority of students at the University of Texas are taught by only about 20 percent of the faculty and that if the rest of the faculty taught more classes, tuition could be reduced substantially. The study drew criticism from UT’s president for using raw data, but the group’s director defended the report. Another study took aim at Texas A&M, reporting that based on comparisons between money it spent on research and research papers published, it was the second-least-productive campus in the nation.

An analysis of federal employment data revealed that Texas has created more jobs in the last 10 years than any other state: 732,800 new jobs since April 2001. No other state came close, and only 19 states plus the District of Columbia showed net growth. Topping the charts in job loss were California and Michigan, at 623,700 and 619,200 respectively. The strength of Texas’ numbers was attributed to a stronger real estate market.

As abortion sonogram legislation, one of Gov. Rick Perry’s declared emergency items, arrived at the governor’s desk for his signature, an abortion-rights group prepared to challenge the legislation. The Center for Reproductive Rights in New York is preparing to file suit against the law, which is set to take effect Sept. 1.

With a statewide drought lingering, another massive wildfire ignited in West Texas, threatening the city of Midland. Residents were asked to evacuate homes and businesses as the grassfire made a rapid advance toward the city limits from its starting point west of town. Firefighters were able to control the fire after it burned more than 4,000 acres, but there were no homes lost and no serious injuries reported — a major victory in this record season for wildfires.

Our insiders are split on whether Gov. Rick Perry will run for president, with 47 percent saying he will, 43 percent saying he won't, and 10 percent saying they don't know.

Whatever he decides to do during the 2012 elections, the overwhelming majority — 82 percent — thinks his occupation will be Governor of Texas in 2013 when that race is over. Another 11 percent say he'll be vice president then, and 7 percent predict he'll be a resident of the White House.

We also asked about Congress, what with the Legislature finishing its regulation time without finishing its redistricting business. They never really got started on congressional maps (there's a hedge in there in case someone gets bored during the last weekend of the session and files a congressional map). Was that a mistake? Yes, according to 54 percent of our insiders. About a third — 35 percent — say it's not a mistake to leave the maps for a panel of federal judges to draw.

Texas gets four new seats in that map. Right now, with 32 members in the state's delegation to Congress, there are 23 Republicans and 9 Democrats. What'll it be in 2013, after new maps are drawn with the four new seats? Most of the folks in this week's survey — 59 percent — think each party will get two seats, putting the total at 25 Republicans and 11 Democrats. The Republicans will get one more seat than that, according to 16 percent of the insiders; 18 percent say the Democrats will get 12 seats.

As always, we left room for comments, and the full set of verbatim answers is attached. Here's a sampling:

Will Rick Perry run for president?

• "He won't seek it, but it will seek him."

• "This may be a good opportunity for him, but I do not think he'll go. Don't rule out VP."

• "He is Texas' Sarah Palin. All hat and no cattle."

• "Nothing to lose and everything to gain. And, he would be a compelling candidate."

• "He will run...in 2016. He will be the indispensable man during the next cycle, speaking for the nominee who will have the pleasure of losing to Obama. He will come back and run for Governor again in '14 and be the prohibitive favorite two years later."

• "Its like Déjà vu 1997"

• "The field is wide open for him. The GOP is increasingly becoming a rump Southern party, and the primary demands a Southern candidate not named for a salamander. At worst, Perry raises his national profile, expands his fundraising base, and sells more books by running."

What office do you think Rick Perry will hold in 2013?

• "Maybe an appointed position in a republican administration."

• "He'll run for Pres as a 'draftee' but will not win. He'll be Governor."

• "Federal Cabinet Secretary"

• "America doesn't want another Cowboy-in-Chief. We're still cleaning up after the last one."

• "If he runs, he probably wins the nomination. But he ain't beating Obama."

Are legislative Republicans making a mistake in leaving congressional redistricting to the courts?

• "Courts don't seem to value incumbency the way politicians do."

• "Heck, there's a higher percentage of Rs on the bench than in the Texas House right now."

• "They were going to draw them anyway. The only mistake here is not giving the courts a benchmark to start with."

• "Legislative leaders see little upside in getting involved in the fight between Lamar Smith and Joe Barton."

• "Ten years ago, the Texas Congressional delegation had unquestioned leaders, especially DeLay. Now they cannot get their act together and provide detailed guidance to the legislature. Instead of a GOP-tilted map for 2012, we're apt to get a neutral one. Not good for GOP."

• "The better question is, do any of them care?"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, Doc Arnold, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Reggie Bashur, Walt Baum, Eric Bearse, Dave Beckwith, Mark Bell, Luke Bellsnyder, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Jose Camacho, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, William Chapman, George Cofer, Rick Cofer, John Colyandro, Hector De Leon, Scott Dunaway, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Alan Erwin, Gay Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Terry Frakes, Neftali Garcia, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Scott Gilmore, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Michael Grimes, Billy Hamilton, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Albert Hawkins, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Shanna Igo, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, Tim Lambert, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Dan McClung, Scott McCown, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Richard Murray, Sylvia Nugent, Todd Olsen, Gardner Pate, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Kraege Polan, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Tim Reeves, Carl Richie, Kim Ross, Jeff Rotkoff, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Mark Sanders, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Steve Scurlock, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Terral Smith, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Keith Strama, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Bruce Todd, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Chad Wilbanks, Ellen Williams, Michael Wilt, Peck Young.

This session we have seen an all out assault on women's health driven by the erroneous assumption that family planning is synonymous with abortion. This narrow construction ignores the comprehensive nature of family planning, which is central to women and children's health before, during and after pregnancy. Eliminating these services will have huge repercussions on the demand for (i.e., the cost of) state services, access to care and the number of unintended pregnancies.

Let’s be clear about what family planning actually means. According to the Department of State Health Services, the state’s family planning budget — which is a combination of state and federal dollars — helps fund more than 300 sites across the state. Most of this money goes toward reducing expenditures for Medicaid-paid births and providing reproductive health care to low-income and uninsured women who are U.S. citizens. Family planning services are offered by a range of providers and can take many forms, whether it's providing contraception, screening for breast or cervical cancer or conducting a postpartum evaluation.

Probably the most well known program is a family planning waiver called the Medicaid Women's Health Program (WHP). Texas ranks highest in the nation in the number of its residents who are uninsured women between the ages of 18 to 44, creating a huge need for this program, which matches $9 from the federal government for every $1 the state contributes. During the first two years of its implementation, Texas saved $37,640,727 and served 141,506 clients. If the Legislature does not reauthorize the WHP this session, as it appears will be the case, these women will lose access to family planning and basic health services, and the state will leave significant federal dollars on the table — meaning other states will get the money set aside for Texans.

According to the Legislative Budget Board (LBB), 26 other states had Medicaid waivers for family planning services as of June 2009, and studies comparing the various waivers have found that the WHP is structured to include several design features that are considered best practices. In fact, the LBB recommended expanding eligibility for the WHP and establishing an outreach program to encourage pregnant women in the Medicaid program to enroll before their post-partum coverage expires.

Much of the rhetoric surrounding the family planning budget cuts appeared to be an effort to defund Planned Parenthood. However, most amendments debated on the House floor would have wiped out family planning funding altogether for local health departments, medical schools, hospitals and community and rural health centers. This is, proverbially speaking, throwing the baby out with the bath water.

While Planned Parenthood's non-profit health centers do serve almost half of the women participating in the WHP, none of the funds they receive are used to pay for abortions because the law already requires that Medicaid providers must be legally separate organizations from abortion providers. To clarify this mandate, a ruling from the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has defined separation requirements for Medicaid providers that include audits to ensure compliance. In addition, WHP providers are paid on a per patient, per procedure basis and are only reimbursed for certain, specified family planning healthcare services.

The fact is that Texas already has a shortage of health care providers who are willing to accept Medicaid patients and half of all births in the state are covered by Medicaid. Each Medicaid birth costs taxpayers more than $16,000 in Medicaid coverage for prenatal care, delivery and first-year health coverage for the child, while care provided through the WHP costs approximately $250 per patient.

Eliminating funds for family planning services is not a responsible or compassionate choice. It will shift the burden of care to our already overloaded local hospitals and leave the women who depend on these services with few options. Unfortunately, fewer options can mean unintended consequences for these women and their families and, ironically, unintended consequences for those pushing the funding cuts: an increase in the number of abortions. 

As expected, the Senate couldn't put the votes together to confirm a couple of the governor's high-profile appointees, meaning Williamson County District Attorney John Bradley is off of the Texas Forensic Science Commission. Gail Lowe will remain on the State Board of Education — that's an elected spot — but loses the chairmanship, which is appointed.

Appointments from Gov. Rick Perry include:

• Three members to the Texas State Board of Social Worker Examiners. Theresa Argumaniz Gomez of El Paso is healthcare administrator at Pueblo De Salud Home Health Services LLC. Nancy Pearson of Burton is a licensed social worker and branch support manager for Hospice Brazos Valley. Denise Pratt of Baytown is a family law judge of the 311th Harris County District Court.
• Robert ‘Bob’ Long of Bastrop to the Texas Ethics Commission. Long is a minister, rancher, banker and board member of three international ministries.
• Three members to the Texas Board of Professional Land Surveying. Mary Chruszczak of The Woodlands is an owner and president of GeoSolutions LLC. Gerardo ‘Jerry’ Garcia of Corpus Christi is president and CEO of Hacienda Construction Inc. Paul Kwan of Houston is president and principal surveyor of Landtech Consultants Inc.
• Three members to the Family and Protective Services Council. Patricia Cole of Fort Worth is an attorney for Decker, Jones, McMackin, McClane, Hall and Bates PC. Anna Jimenez of Corpus Christi is an assistant public defender for the Regional Public Defender’s Office for Capital Cases, and former district attorney of Nueces County. Benny Morris of Cleburne is vice principal of Coleman Elementary School.
• Avis Wukasch of Georgetown chair of the Texas Real Estate Commission and appointed three members to the commission. Wukasch is a real estate broker and team leader of Keller Williams Realty in Round Rock. Troy Alley Jr. of DeSoto is executive vice president and COO of Con-Real LP. Bill Jones of Belton is a real estate broker and owner of Century 21 Accent. Weston Martinez of San Antonio is manager of outside plant planning, engineering and design for AT&T in San Antonio, and president of Alamo Grass and Landscaping Services LLC.