The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Bloggers are mixing it up in the real world and with traditional media this week. They're also reacting to recent elections, looking forward to the next ones, prepping for the 2009 Legislative Session and continuing coverage on the race for House Speaker.

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Fallouts, Previews

A reluctant BurkaBlog post on how Chris Bell and Texas Democrats are losers spurs a conversation with blogger houtopia and readers. Brains and Eggs, meanwhile, laments Bell's defeat, and Burnt Orange wonders if it will prove to be Bell's last race.

Musings says "Port Arthur Needed Chris Bell." But Half Empty sees things half full, saying Bell is "in the vanguard of the overturn of Republicanism in Texas." Reporting from Sen.-elect Joan Huffman's victory party, abc13's Political Blog says that Republican Jim Murphy will oppose Rep. Kristi Thibaut — who defeated him in November — again in 2010.

Code Red posts Part Two (in what might only be a two-part series) on the 2010 Texas governor's race, profiling U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Texas Politics, the Houston Chronicle's blog, lists six scenarios involving Hutchison in the next few years. U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions asked his fellow Republican not to leave D.C., says Trail Blazers, the Dallas Morning News's blog.

Off the Kuff says Democrats could still shoot for lower-ballot positions, even if they can't field viable candidates at the top. Meanwhile, Texas Politics says Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, hasn't ruled out jumping into the U.S. Senate pool.

Democratic U.S. Reps. Al Green of Houston and Eddie Bernice Johnson of Dallas needed the least amount of money to win reelection to Congress in Texas, according to the Houston Chronicle's Texas on the Potomac blog. And Ellis County Observer is asking for the latest news on former Presidential candidate U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's "Campaign for Liberty" movement.

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Under the Dome, Already

Annex posts on bills about TxDOT and toll advertising, autism and children's health insurance, municipal judges and marriage, immigration and voter photo ID, renaming universities, pet stealing and nonpartisan state school board elections. Mike Falick's Blog also spotlights the last of those bills, while Kaos looks at legislation on the death penalty.

Eye on Williamson looks at Sunset Commission recommendations on TxDOT and the Texas Residential Construction Commission and doesn't see any real change. Meanwhile, Grits for Breakfast got involved with Sunset and the Texas Youth Commission, demanding more changes to the agency in front of Sunset members. Read about it here, here and here.

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Head of the House

With only two of 12 hopefuls present, a Speaker's summit last week "was short on summitry," says Postcards from the Lege, the Austin American-Statesman's blog. Trail Blazers described it as "Jovial. Wonkish."

Red Ink Texas says Speaker candidate Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Houston, is the subject of a campaign financing ethics complaint. Annex dons (or doesn't doff) his opinion editor's hat to wax in favor of Democrats backing a Democrat for House Speaker. And Burka converses with readers on Speaker race possibilities here and here.

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Virtual Reality

Hair Balls, the alternative newspaper Houston Press's blog, got f2f (face to face) with Off the Kuff to kick off a series of weekly interviews with bloggers. A Capitol Blog's state Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, took a photo with Francisco Cigarroa, the fresh pick for UT chancellor. He also gives notice that his hometown newspaper has joined the digital revolution.

Austinist blog links to the Austin American-Statesman newspaper's first Texas Social Media Awards, a contest to determine the state's "Top 25 social media users" — tweeters, bloggers, diggers, blog roundup writers... (It works like American Idol in reverse: People nominate the contestants, and Statesman judges choose the winners.)

According to PoliTex, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's blog,Liberal blog Fighting Liberals is urging folks to send old shoes to the George W. Bush Library "As a sign of your admiration" for the Iraqi thrower of footwear. (Who throws a shoe?) Here's something a traditional journalist wouldn't normally do: A Burnt Orange blogger is managing an Austin City Council campaign. Meanwhile, Texas Kaos and friends gathered at an Austin bar on Sunday. We're waiting for vignettes.

The original Out There writer at The Capitol Crowd spreads the word on new website — LobbyistFinder, a place for lobbyists and those seeking them. A Dos Centavos blogger is the new Denton Democratic Party diversity committee chair, according to Castle Hills Democrats. Back in Capital City, blogger refinish69 posts the third entry on being Homeless in Austin.

KVUE's Political Junkie notes that Houston mayor Bill White made his U.S. Senate race announcement via the Internet. Also, Junkie heard of Railroad Commissioner Michael William's declaration for the same seat on Twitter. And two blogs write old-fashioned endorsements of Williams for U.S. Senate — UrbanGrounds (here) and Policy Spotlight (here).

The Houston Chronicle's Texas on the Potomac blog publishes a column by longtime newspaperman Dave McNeely on the rumble between incumbent Gov. Rick Perry and aspiring successor U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

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Extra Points

Texas Watchdog launched a database of state workers pulling in more than $100,000 per year. More here and here. Potomac took photos of the White House Christmas ornaments. And Postcards says the Bob Bullock State History Museum expected to eclipse the 4-million-visitor mark this past weekend.


This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

As new Republicans declared themselves candidates for speaker of the Texas House, their colleagues released the names of 64 Democrats who vowed in early November to oppose current Speaker Tom Craddick of Midland.

The House Democratic Caucus met the day after the election. While they couldn't agree on a candidate to oppose Craddick, they did agree to pledge their opposition to the incumbent and their desire for new leadership. They claimed 64 signatures, but wouldn't show them until they felt they had a majority.

They told Republicans to gather enough votes to make a majority of it, hoping to knock off Craddick first and then to start a contest for his opened seat.

And now they think they're there. They issued a press release first thing Monday morning that includes a copy of their list (attached). The release:

Today, the fact that there will be a new Speaker for the 81st Texas House of Representatives is established, there being at least 76 House members publicly committed to change. As Texans first, House Democrats have worked and continue to work to bring change to the Texas House of Representatives. Moving Texas forward for all Texans with policies that improve the lives of our constituents has been our overriding goal. Allowing each House Member to represent their constituents to the best of their ability, and allow ideas, bills and policy to be dictated by the merits is the best way to achieve that goal. We are eager to work with like-minded Republicans in a bipartisan manner. Attached are the signatures of 64 House Democrats who are publicly committed to this future. Their mutual trust, resolve, unity and commitment to one another is to be commended.
The list leaves blank the signature lines of ten House Democrats who wouldn't take the pledge against Craddick: Dawnna Dukes of Austin, Harold Dutton of Houston, Al Edwards of Houston, Kino Flores of Palmview, Helen Giddings of Dallas, Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City, Tracy King of Batesville, Ruth Jones McClendon of San Antonio, Aaron Peña of Edinburg, and Sylvester Turner of Houston. A spokeswoman for Craddick — Alexis DeLee — said her boss has more than enough votes to win reelection. "I don't know when that list was put together, but it's an inaccurate list," she said. DeLee wouldn't get specific, but said that there are people on the Democrats' list who are also on Craddick's list of supporters. "We continue to have the largest and most solid support," she said. A dozen candidates, including Craddick, have filed for speaker so far. Six of the challengers are Republicans. Those, along with Republicans who've said they want a new leader — including some who plan to file for speaker in the next couple of days — appear to give Craddick's opponents a majority. Rep. Dan Gattis, R-Georgetown, isn't among the six but filed Monday morning and later announced he has the support of three Republicans who've been in the Craddick fold in the past: Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton of Mauriceville, Patricia Harless of Spring, and Lois Kolkhorst of Brenham. And Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo, is clearly thinking about it but hasn't made a decision. Smithee said he's been called by 20 to 25 colleagues asking about his interest in the race. He said he told Craddick that the speaker would be the first to hear if he's leaving the team, and said he hasn't talked to Craddick yet. He'll decide in the next couple of days. "Lots of members are concerned about showing up on January 13 and having a war and then showing up the next day and having a war... and so on," he said. "My only interest in running for speaker or in being speaker would be to facillitate and new and different environment [in the House]."

That's not the end of this, however.

The anti-Craddick gang has yet to agree on a candidate and until they do that and get 76 votes for that candidate, the incumbent is still in the hunt. His opponents plan to meet on Friday — January 2 — to try to settle on a candidate.

The GOP has a narrow majority in the House — 76 to 74 — and it's unlikely they'll vote a Democrat into the corner office. The Republicans on the list, so far, are Byron Cook of Corsicana, Craddick, Gattis, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Jim Keffer of Eastland, Ed Kuempel of Seguin, Tommy Merritt of Longview, and Burt Solomons of Carrollton.

The election for speaker will be on the first day of the legislative session, Tuesday, January 13.

Bloggers end the year rehashing the events of 2008. They're also looking forward to the 2009 Legislative Session, the 2010 elections and beyond. And then there's some stuff happening right now.

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2009

"One Republican legislator, speaking on background" tells the Houston Chronicle's Texas Politics that a thus-far silent coalition of Republicans has basically doomed Tom Craddick's chance to be Speaker again. Once the Christmas break ends, expect the House Speaker's race to heat up considerably, says Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, comparing the contest to the struggle for supremacy among immortals in the Highlander movies. [eds note: This story is breaking now.]

BurkaBlog touts John Smithee, R-Amarillo, as the best Speaker candidate (if he decides to run). He also gives his opinion of several other candidates (filed and not) and says that if a consensus anti-Craddick candidate does not emerge by January 2, then it's game, set, match, Craddick. In response to a follow up post by Burka, Rep. Will Hartnett, R-Dallas, seizes the opportunity to use the phrase "all hat and no cattle" to describe the dozen or so "Anybody But Craddick" Republicans. Meanwhile, Letters From Texas lampoons Burka, saying, "So essentially, if you do the above-described math, it is clear that there is going to indeed be a winner. And there you have it."

Policy Spotlight urges the Lege to up the number of charter schools allowed in Texas, since the State Board of Education this fall approved school number 215, the maximum permitted by current law. Grits for Breakfast is backing Senate Bill 388 by Sen. John Carona, R-Dallas, that would establish an "integrity unit" at the Department of Public Safety to investigate law enforcement corruption, as a result of increased transnational gang activity. He then predicts that the bill and others he deems results-oriented won't go anywhere in '09 because Perry will push for money to instead go to "PR or pork-related" projects in the name of border security, in an effort to prime his '10 primary campaign against Hutchison.

It's not a good idea to pour money into teaching some classes to ESL children in Spanish, as advocated by Rep. Rob Eissler, R-The Woodlands, and a federal judge, says Panhandle Truth Squad, because not all ESL students are native Spanish speakers, and demographics can and do shift rapidly.

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2K8

WhosPlayin crunches federal campaign contribution data for 2008 Texas Congressional races, with the intention of figuring out what industries supported which candidates. Check out their reports here.

Walker's Report looks back on the year in photos. Subjects include celebrities, San Antonio celebrities, Obama, Obama again, the Clintons, the Kennedys, Democratic Presidential candidates, Republican Presidential candidates, U.S. Senators and U.S. House Speakers. Meanwhile, S.A. Mayor Phil Hardberger won Walker's Politician of the Year award.

And the million-dollar state House race between Rep.-elect Diana Maldonado and Republican Bryan Daniel headlines Williamson Republic's top Wilco stories of the year.

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Two Thousand and Ten

Will Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert (a Republican) run for U.S. Senate? Perhaps, says D magazine's Frontburner blog. More from Texas Politics here.

Headline of the Week award goes to Burnt Orange Report for a post titled "Everyone Needs to Calm the Hell Down About 2010" that stirs readers into a frenzy and turns the comments section into pandemonium.

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And Beyond

Is it time to get rid of Texas Democrats' "Two-Step" primary-caucus Presidential selection process? asks Burnt Orange. Yes, says longtime Texas Dem Bob Gammage, calling it "a breach of the integrity of core Democratic Party values." (Cue Republicans: What values?)

Greg's Opinion says that Texas will have four new Congressional seats come redistricting time in 2011. He predicts the following locations will get extra districts: "South Texas, Harris County, Tarrant County, and one to be named later."

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Current Affairs

Gov. Perry's press people snubbed Texas Monthly online editor Eileen Smith, AKA Pink Lady, at a media conference in favor of "traditional" journalists (despite our earlier assertion that Smith is a officially a member of the mainstream media). Smith complained on her In the Pink Texas blog (on the Texas Monthly website), and the flacks responded by punking her on Facebook.

Texas Kaos publishes blogger refinish69's fourth installment about being homeless in Austin. The blogger concludes, "The warm wishes, kindness, gifts, food, and decorations helped soften the depression of not being able to do the things I have always done for the holidays." And Texas on the Potomac, the Houston Chronicle's blog, googled Houston-area U.S. Reps to see who has the biggest web presence.

The blogger behind Life at the Harris County Criminal Justice Center got terminated on Christmas Eve. (He was already on the way out, the product of purging by the new district attorney.) The last straw was posting a Christmas song parody -- written by commenters -- poking fun of new D.A. Pat Lykos. Here's the final verse: "On the Twelfth Day of Lykos, Snookems gave to me, Twelve jurors chosen without peremptory strikes used by the State, eleven free "crooked cop passes" ten internal memos on toxic blogs, nine contractors measuring for a 6th floor smoking balcony, eight insulted Yarmulke wearing witness, seven days of Lykos Hell, six e-mails from family, five free invitations! Four pantsuits, three washed out judges, two Leitner balls, and a bitter troll from a spider hole!"


This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

The outcome of the speaker's race might come down to the preferences of 11 Republican men in the Texas House.

That group will meet Friday to try to pick one from their number to challenge Tom Craddick, hoping that's the only candidate challenging the incumbent.

They're pursuing the 64 + X strategy: 64 Democrats won't vote for Craddick "under any circumstances," and if one other candidate can produce a dozen real votes, there will be a new speaker. That works a lot better if there's only one alternative to Craddick than if the speaker's foes have more choices.

The scheme hinges on everyone else in the House going along, with no other Republican filing after the Gang of 11 meets, and that Craddick failing to rally. (The eleven: Byron Cook of Corsicana, Rob Eissler of The Woodlands, Charlie Geren of Fort Worth, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Jim Keffer of Eastland, Edmund Kuempel of Seguin, Brian McCall of Plano, Tommy Merritt of Longview, Jim Pitts of Waxahachie, Burt Solomons of Carrollton, and Joe Straus of San Antonio.)

Craddick, meanwhile, plans to meet with members on Sunday night to try to solidify his votes. He's got burrs in his saddle: Two allies — Will Harnett of Dallas and Warren Chisum of Pampa — said publicly that he doesn't have the 76 votes he needs to lock up another term. They're not saying he won't get there, just that he hasn't. Harnett told KVUE-TV's Political Junkie that Craddick has 70 votes — not the same as 76. Chisum told the Houston Chronicle that Craddick is five or six short of a majority for reelection. He backed off a little later, saying he hadn't seen the actual count and that he'd been chewed on for his first comments. But he didn't retract them.

Play some scenario games with us.

1. The Gang of 11 agrees on a candidate. Craddick stays in the race. Nobody else files. Unless he can find some flakes, this is a gloomy picture for the speaker.

2. The Gang of 11 agrees on a candidate. Craddick stays in the race. Another Republican files, making three. The anti-Craddick vote splits, maybe in a way that's good for the speaker, maybe in a way that's good for one of the other two. The opportunity opens for a centrist who can pull 40 votes from each side and shut out the hard-core partisans.

3. The Gang of 11 can't agree, takes its basketball and goes home. Craddick's supporters rally around the failure, stampede the skittish legislators, and work to close the deal.

4. The Gang of 11 can't agree, and a centrist Republican takes advantage of the mayhem to put together a coalition.

The House has 40 committees at the moment. If you combine departures from the House and rebels against Craddick, a dozen chairs are open (we're not counting John Smithee, R-Amarillo, who's looking around but hasn't bolted). Consider those chairs trade bait for the speaker, though he can't legally make promises in return for a vote. He can certainly tell members there are leadership positions open and that they look like leaders — so long as nobody says anything for sure.

His opponents, by the same logic, have 40 chairmanships to dangle, including big ones like Appropriations, Ways & Means, State Affairs, Transportation, Public Health, etc., etc., etc.

And for both sides, there's a party element to this. Republicans got 31 of the 40 chairmanships the last time Craddick made assignments. In a House with 76 Republicans and 74 Democrats, some members are clamoring for an even split or something close to it. That would cost the GOP a third of its leadership positions, while doubling the Democratic share.

Rep. Brian McCall, R-Plano, filed for speaker this afternoon, according to the Texas Ethics Commission. Add him to the list that includes Democrats Pete Gallego of Alpine, Scott Hochberg of Houston, Allan Ritterof Nederland, Senfronia Thompson of Houston, and Sylvester Turner of Houston, and Republicans Byron Cook of Corsicana, Tom Craddick of Midland, Dan Gattis of Georgetown, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Jim Keffer of Eastland, Edmund Kuempel of Seguin, Tommy Merritt of Longview, and Burt Solomons of Carrollton. The House will have 76 Republicans and 74 Democrats on opening day January 13, and it's unlikely a Democrat will be elected to preside. That story is developing this weekend.

While everyone else is settling into one last weekend of holiday leftovers and bowl games, the Texas House is entering a weekend that could decide who'll lead the Legislature's lower chamber for the next two years. Or not — the actual vote for speaker isn't until January 13, and it could be that long before anything is decided. Reduced to the lowest possible level of drama, this is just a series of meetings. But Speaker Tom Craddick's grip on his job is slipping, and the 150 members of the House are deciding whether to give him a fourth term or to toss him out. Eleven Republicans are meeting in Austin to pick their favorite for speaker in the hope that other Republicans will sign up, combine their votes with 64 Democrats who've pledged to oppose Craddick, and elect someone new to the job. Rep. Brian McCall, R-Plano, filed for speaker this afternoon, according to the Texas Ethics Commission. The Democrats will caucus Saturday at the Texas AFL-CIO's headquarters in Austin to take in what's happened and to talk about their next moves. Craddick is holding a war council on Sunday with members still loyal to him. That could be a rally or a wake, depending on what comes before it.

A small group of House Republicans decided to back Straus for speaker. That group of 11 legislators hopes to combine their support — and their agreement to present just one candidate instead of several — with the 64 Democrats who signed a pledge not to vote for another term for House Speaker Tom Craddick. "This group is united," Straus told reporters who were waiting on the street outside Rep. Byron Cook's Austin residence. "I'm going to try to bring everyone together." It takes 76 votes to win, so they'll need some more votes from other members to prevail. But the group's decision — made after a relatively short meeting on Friday night — adds momentum to Craddick's challengers. Rep. Charlie Geren of Fort Worth said the group decided on Straus after three ballots and said they're now calling "every single person" on the Democrats' list to see if they're on board. The Democrats meet on Saturday to talk about, and perhaps ratify, the decision. Craddick had previously scheduled a meeting with his supporters in the House on Sunday. After the renegades announced their vote, Craddick issued a confident press release: "There are great challenges facing the state, and there are clear differences in experience and philosophy between Mr. Straus and myself. I am confident that I will be re-elected speaker." It's not clear they'll be the only two candidates when the legislative session begins on January 13 (if the race isn't decided before then). Rep. Dan Gattis of Georgetown is a Republican candidate who wasn't in the bloc voting for Straus. And John Smithee of Amarillo is openly considering a bid for the seat. Joe Straus III won a special election to get into the House in 2005, replacing Elizabeth Ames Jones, who'd been appointed to the Texas Railroad Commission. He's been a Republican activist in Bexar County and worked in the Commerce Department in the administration of the first George Bush. And his official bio says he ran U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith's first campaign for Congress. His family is in the racing business, with part ownership of Retama Park in San Antonio. He didn't file for speaker, apparently, until after the Texas Ethics Commission's 5 p.m. closing time, though Geren said Straus had filed the papers needed to be a legal candidate for speaker. Fun bit: Straus is 49 years old. Craddick, elected to the House in 1968, took office when his rival was in the third grade.

Cathy Adams of the Texas Eagle Forum — a supporter of incumbent House Speaker Tom Craddick — wants her supporters to get busy whacking Rep. Joe Straus III, R-San Antonio.Straus emerged Friday night as the consensus candidate of a group of "Anybody But Craddick" Republicans — 11 members who agreed among themselves to support Straus and drop out of the speaker race themselves. With members of both parties working the phones to drum up votes for and against Craddick, Adams implored her supporters to start lobbying. Her email, in full (emphasis is in her original):

Friends,

The "gang of 11" that I wrote you about yesterday made their choice today: Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio.

Straus' experience in the Texas House is very short. He has only been a member of the Texas House for 2 sessions, contrasted with the current Speaker Craddick's 20 sessions.

The fact that coup leader Rep. Charlie Geren was in contact with Democrats who promise 64 votes, means that candidate Straus would only have to garner 12 votes to reach 76, the simple majority of the 150-member House.

Do you want a Republican Speaker who is elected by only 12 Republicans and 64 Democrats? The "gang of 11" would only need ONE extra vote to elect their Speaker candidate.

If you think that is as RIDICULOUS as I do, then please contact your State Representative by email or telephone and ask him / her to vote for a Republican Speaker who would be elected by a MAJORITY of Republicans, not only 12 members. And ask your State Representative to demand that the vote be public, not a secret ballot.

Rep. Straus' voting record is NOT conservative:

* He voted to make it easier to perform 3rd trimester abortions (SB 419, vote 672, 2005)

* He voted in support of homosexuals as foster parents (SB 6, vote 327, 2005)

* He voted to expand casino gambling (HB 10, vote 939, 2007) (His family is part of the management of a horse racing track in San Antonio: http://www.retamapark.com/?cat=31&id=7.)

* He voted against parental rights concerning student referrals by school counselors to groups like Planned Parenthood (HB 2136, vote 592, 2007)

Email your State Representative by replacing his / her name in this equation: firstname.lastname@house.state.tx.us

On Monday, please call your State Representative through the Capitol switchboard at 512-463-4630.

If you need to determine WHO your State Representative is, please enter your address here: http://www.house.state.tx.us/members/welcome.php

Thank you for your help. Remember that the vote for the Speaker is the MOST IMPORTANT vote of the session because the Speaker appoints committee chairmen and assigns bills to committees. Can you imagine Straus with his liberal voting record appointing committee chairmen and determining the agenda for the Texas House? The success or failure of our conservative agenda depends on electing a conservative Speaker.

Joe Straus worked the phones trying to pick up Republican votes Saturday while House Democrats met to talk about him in specific and the Speaker's race in general.

They apparently added to their numbers, picking up signatures from at least two of the ten Democrats who'd previously not signed a pledge to vote against House Speaker Tom Craddick. The two apparent pickups were Ruth Jones McClendon of San Antonio and Dawnna Dukes of Austin. Both have supported Craddick in the past, though both have said they're weren't committed to his reelection. Leaving the meeting, McClendon said her vote "is between me and my God." And Dukes said she's not committed to anybody, joking that Straus is "cute" without saying he'll get her vote.

On Friday night, Straus, R-San Antonio, won the support of the Gang of 11 — a group of key anti-Craddick Republicans — by just one vote, on the third ballot, over Rep. Burt Solomons of Carrollton. But all of those Republicans who met Friday night to pick a consensus candidate are now trying to get other Republicans on board. And Straus concentrated on that task on Saturday, skipping the meeting with the Democrats at the state AFL-CIO headquarters.

Meanwhile, Craddick planned to meet with his supporters on Sunday at Sullivan's, an upscale steakhouse in downtown Austin. The momentum is clearly with his opponents, but every day they spend without closing the deal is a day for him to work, and even his detractors respect Craddick's ability to work his votes. "I'm waiting to see if Straus can bring in some Republicans," said Rep. Terri Hodge, D-Dallas. "The Speaker is an expert at picking people off."

The leader of the House Democratic Caucus, Jim Dunnam of Waco, said he's not counting votes for Straus. He counts himself a Straus supporter, but said the Democrats are gathering votes against Craddick and not on behalf of anyone in particular. That second vote, he said, is for each member to decide.

Right now, there are three candidates for speaker and another representative who's still thinking about it. Rep. Dan Gattis, R-Georgetown, says he has four votes including his own. And Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo, is now telling colleagues he'll decide on Monday whether to get in. That's a deadline of sorts for Craddick and Straus. If either can show by Monday that they've got the votes, the race is over. If Smithee gets in, the race enters a new phase, with Gattis and Smithee posed as the Craddick alternatives most acceptable to the Republicans.

At this point, Straus has the momentum, and Craddick hasn't conceded. Dunnam contends the speaker is out of the running. "There's 76 votes against Mr. Craddick, so we know there's going to be a new speaker," Dunnam told reporters. "The issue now is deciding who that's going to be."

This week's stories on the race: Outside In It's Joe Straus The Speaker Bowl Another Speaker Candidate Solving for X

Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo, filed the papers necessary to be a candidate for speaker of the Texas House, adding yet another name to the list of candidates opposing Tom Craddick of Midland, according to members who've talked with him.

He wasn't immediately available for comment.

Assuming that's true there are now four real candidates in the race: Craddick himself, Smithee, Dan Gattis of Georgetown, and Joe Straus III of San Antonio.

Straus has been moving rapidly during the last 48 hours to lock up the 76+ votes needed to win in the 150-member House. He's trying to wrap it up this evening or, at the latest, tomorrow.

Gattis has been in the contest for a while, with three other members pledged to him.

And Craddick has been trying to get a majority of the votes since the November 4 elections, without success. He's holding a meeting with supporters at a downtown Austin steakhouse tonight.

Smithee's play would only work if Straus is short of 76 votes, and if Craddick drops out and frees his supporters to go with someone else. If they chose Smithee over Straus, and Gattis, that'd be that.

At this point, the arithmetic and the timing appear to favor Straus. He's been working, with some success, to nail down the votes of members who openly oppose Craddick's reelection. Craddick's been holding the members — mostly but not all of them Republicans — who want him to get a fourth term.

And Smithee and Gattis are now contending for two groups: Uncommitted Craddick opponents, and people who've been with Craddick to this point but who could become available if they think they're not with a winner. They're after people who don't think Craddick can or should get there and who don't want Straus for whatever reason. The question, with Craddick and Straus working so hard, is whether there are enough votes available to make Gattis or Smithee a viable candidate.

Straus, from a San Antonio clan with deep Republican roots, is being attacked by some conservatives for his views and votes on abortion, and for his family's gambling interests (they own a share of the Retama Park horse track near San Antonio).

He sent members a message to answer the first concern. The text:

"This will clarify my position on the important life issue:

"As you know I believe in the sanctity of life. I am consistent with existing restrictions on abortion including parental notification/parental consent. I believe exceptions should exist for rape, incest and harm to the life of the Mother. That said, I fervently hope abortion is the rarest medical procedure conducted in 2009 and beyond.

"In terms of the work before us in the Texas House, I will look to elected House Members for thoughtful policy guidance on this important subject.

Thanks for all you are doing, Joe"

The Texas Eagle Forum's Cathie Adams was one of Joe Straus' fiercest critics over the frenzied last weekend of the speaker's race. How do you know the race is over? Her last email.

"Friends, Rep. John Smithee withdrew from the Speaker's race late today. Rep. Joe Straus is expected to be the next Speaker of the Texas House. I look forward to working with the new Speaker and each of YOU in the upcoming legislative session. Thank you for all your help, Cathie Adams"

A couple of days later, she sent out emails alerting her list to a story about gambling interests' role in getting Straus elected.

You remember when Speaker Tom Craddick said the state was sitting on a $15 billion budget surplus?

That was only eight months ago. And now, lawmakers, budgeteers, and various soothsayers are telling agencies and other supplicants this Legislature will be writing a tight, tight budget.

The $15 billion was never really a surplus, but the state was in good financial shape and — compared to most other states — remains so.

And part of this is the normal budget whittling that precedes a session: It's easier to say "No" when there's no money than to say "No" when the state is flush.

But the economy, Hurricane Ike, state laws on education funds, federal investigations of state mental facilities and a mess of other details are making it easy to cloud the outlook. There's more here than the usual rhetorical trick.

Comptroller Susan Combs will present her biennial revenue estimate on Monday morning — a day before legislators come back. Nobody's seen it, but the budgeteers expect it to be gloomy.

Some things, they know. Sales tax income is still up, but the rate of increase has slowed considerably. Hurricane Ike will cost up to $2 billion. State law prohibits the state's education endowment from making payments when returns fall below a certain amount over ten years. The market drop triggered that (apparently; the attorney general has been asked to read the law closely to find an out) and the state might not get $1.5 billion to $2.3 billion it expected. The State Board of Education is having a special meeting on Tuesday — before the Legislature meets — to talk about that issue and try to produce something good for budget-writers to talk about.

The state's new business tax underperformed estimates, and the economic downturn could dampen those numbers even more. And the state has a "structural deficit" in the school finance swap approved by lawmakers in 2006. They promised to spend more on local school tax cuts than they are raising with the new business tax. The difference each year — up to $5 billion — has to be made up with other funds.

They'll start with a cash balance of about $2 billion. Two years ago, the corresponding number was $8.8 billion. To a budget writer, that looks like a $6.8 billion hole to fill, since the lower balance amounts to a loss in the amount of funds available at the start.

And whenever you hear someone talk about job growth in the state, know that those numbers figure into the formulas for some federal funds — like Medicaid. The better off we are relative to other states, the lower the matching funds. For budget purposes, that's another leak in the pail.

Texas has about $6.6 billion in its rainy day fund, but that's one-time money, and in a slow economy, anything spent now might not be replaced anytime soon. Budgeteers are — at least at the outset — saying they don't want to spend that money.

Comptrollers and their revenue estimators are always pessimistic — if you make a mistake on the estimates, it's better to be low than high. Go low, and you've got more money than you expected. Go high, and you've got a sea of red numbers. This is an ideal environment for a number-cruncher who wants to make a pessimistic estimate.

House Speaker Tom Craddick is dropping his reelection bid, telling fellow representatives tonight he doesn't have the votes to win another term in that job and freeing them to vote for others, a list that includes Reps. Joe Straus III of San Antonio, John Smithee of Amarillo, and Dan Gattis of Georgetown.Straus told the San Antonio Express-News on Saturday he had enough votes to win the speakership; he's planning to release a list as early as tonight with at least enough names to prove it. Straus, picked Friday night by a bloc of 11 Republicans who oppose Craddick, spent that night, all day Saturday and most of the day Sunday calling members and collecting signatures from supporters. He says now he has all of the votes he needs to win. If members believe him, his list will balloon over the next several hours as representatives who were uncommitted or pledged to other candidates sign up. Smithee, meanwhile, appears to be the leading alternative to Straus with Craddick out of the race. Gattis has been in the contest longest, but Smithee never directly challenged the incumbent. That nuance might be important to Craddick supporters, who blame Gattis and all of the other challengers for precipitating Craddick's fall. Smithee would be the beneficiary of that kind of thinking. But he might also be too late. Craddick's departure is an indication he doesn't think he can get to the magic number of 76. His strongest opponents are committed to Straus. The question is whether, in his wake, there are enough uncommitted votes and changeable votes to put anyone but Straus in the corner office.

Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo, says he's running for speaker because he wants the House "to work and not fight," and acknowledges that he's late to the party.Smithee says he filed because he'd been invited to a meeting with Craddick and others to talk about the speaker's race and felt he needed to be a legal candidate to take part. "I don't know if it's too late to try to make the case or not," he said. He said he wants to "change the culture of the House. That's not just one person — it's all of us." "We have to make the House a clean place (ethically)," he said. "Members have to stay at arms-length with the lobby and at arms-length with special interest groups." "I want to work and not fight," he said, when asked to summarize his platform. Smithee said he'll back Straus if Straus wins the race — and expects the same in reverse — but said the House should have more than two days to pick between the two. That's a play, apparently, at the people on Straus' list of supporters, offering them a chance to reconsider now that Craddick's out. "Some debates — some discussions about where to take the House and how to do the public's work still need to be held," he said. Smithee said Gattis has agreed to support him. Gattis said he agreed to support Smithee "if he can get the votes. "

Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, published a list of 85 members who've pledged to vote for him for speaker of the Texas House.

AUSTIN, TX January 4, 2009 – Today Representative Joe Straus announced that he has secured in excess of the required 76 votes to be elected Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives. The list of commitments is attached to this correspondence. Comments by Rep. Straus "Since entering the House I have been guided by the very straightforward principle of representing my District first, while continually evaluating what is best for Texas -- the way in which a democratic body should function. The needs of special interests and partisanship will take a back seat to doing what is right for our State at this critical time. It is time for a new tone and an atmosphere of trust in the Texas House of Representatives. Having received the commitment of a strong majority of my colleagues, it is my goal to restore civility, fairness and transparency to the House of Representatives and its public-policy making process. Speaker Tom Craddick has served with distinction in the Texas House for four decades. I have great respect for him personally, and honor his service to the State." In the coming days, I look forward to meeting with each Representative and discussing their district's priorities.
The list: Democrats: Alma Allen, Roberto Alonzo, Carol Alvarado, Rafael Anchia, Valinda Bolton, Lon Burnam, Joaquin Castro, Norma Chavez, Ellen Cohen, Garnet Coleman, Yvonne Davis, Joe Deshotel, Dawnna Dukes, Jim Dunnam, Craig Eiland, Kirk England, Joe Farias, David Farabee, Jessica Farrar, Kino Flores, Stephen Frost, Pete Gallego, Helen Giddings, Veronica Gonzalez, Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles, Roland Gutierrez, Joe Heflin, Ana Hernandez, Abel Herrero, Scott Hochberg, Terri Hodge, Mark Homer, Chuck Hopson, Donna Howard, Carol Kent, Tracy King, David Leibowitz, Eddie Lucio, Diana Maldonado, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Marisa Marquez, Armando Martinez, Trey Martinez Fischer, Ruth Jones McClendon, Jim McReynolds, Jose Menendez, Robert Miklos, Joe Moody, Elliott Naishtat, Rene Oliveira, Dora Olivo, Solomon Ortiz, Aaron Pena, Joe Pickett, Paula Pierson, Chente Quintanilla, Richard Raymond, Tara Rios Ybarra, Allan Ritter, Eddie Rodriguez, Patrick Rose, Mark Strama, Kristi Thibaut, Senfronia Thompson, Chris Turner, Allen Vaught, Marc Veasey, Mike Villarreal, Hubert Vo, Armando Walle. Republicans: Dan Branch, Byron Cook, Rob Eissler, Gary Elkins, Charlie Geren, Delwin Jones, Jim Keffer, Edmund Kuempel, Brian McCall, Tommy Merritt, Doug Miller, Jim Pitts, Burt Solomons, Todd Smith, Joe Straus.

Rep. Joe Straus of San Antonio added three names to the list of state representatives supporting his bid for speaker of the House.They are Angie Chen Button, Ryan Guillen, and Sylvester Turner. Keeping score? That's 88 total, including 16 Republicans and 72 Democrats. Here's the complete list, including the additions: Democrats: Alma Allen, Roberto Alonzo, Carol Alvarado, Rafael Anchia, Valinda Bolton, Lon Burnam, Joaquin Castro, Norma Chavez, Ellen Cohen, Garnet Coleman, Yvonne Davis, Joe Deshotel, Dawnna Dukes, Jim Dunnam, Craig Eiland, Kirk England, Joe Farias, David Farabee, Jessica Farrar, Kino Flores, Stephen Frost, Pete Gallego, Helen Giddings, Veronica Gonzalez, Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles, Ryan Guillen, Roland Gutierrez, Joe Heflin, Ana Hernandez, Abel Herrero, Scott Hochberg, Terri Hodge, Mark Homer, Chuck Hopson, Donna Howard, Carol Kent, Tracy King, David Leibowitz, Eddie Lucio, Diana Maldonado, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Marisa Marquez, Armando Martinez, Trey Martinez Fischer, Ruth Jones McClendon, Jim McReynolds, Jose Menendez, Robert Miklos, Joe Moody, Elliott Naishtat, Rene Oliveira, Dora Olivo, Solomon Ortiz, Aaron Pena, Joe Pickett, Paula Pierson, Chente Quintanilla, Richard Raymond, Tara Rios Ybarra, Allan Ritter, Eddie Rodriguez, Patrick Rose, Mark Strama, Kristi Thibaut, Senfronia Thompson, Chris Turner, Sylvester Turner, Allen Vaught, Marc Veasey, Mike Villarreal, Hubert Vo, Armando Walle. Republicans: Dan Branch, Angie Chen Button, Byron Cook, Rob Eissler, Gary Elkins, Charlie Geren, Delwin Jones, Jim Keffer, Edmund Kuempel, Brian McCall, Tommy Merritt, Doug Miller, Jim Pitts, Burt Solomons, Todd Smith, Joe Straus.

A group of 57 Republicans who had backed House Speaker Tom Craddick agreed after a dinner meeting to support John Smithee of Amarillo to succeed him.They didn't release the list of names, but said they considered five candidates before voting to support Smithee, including Reps. Warren Chisum, Dan Gattis, John Otto, and Vicki Truitt. It came down to Smithee and Gattis and the group voted unanimously, according to several members. Craddick told the group he got out of the race when he realized he couldn't win. And he realized he couldn't win, he told them, when he lost the support of a handful of Democrats who had supported him in the past. His press office issued a brief statement when it was over: "Tonight, Tom Craddick released his pledges for speaker." Afterwards, Smithee repeated his argument that members who have committed their support to Joe Straus should reconsider now that Craddick is out of the race and Smithee has taken his place as the competition. He and others in the Craddick group said they were concerned that most of Straus' initial support comes from Democrats. Their fear is that he'll be beholden to them rather than to Republicans. Smithee said he'll release the list of people who voted to support him on Monday; no copy was available for public consumption after the Sunday night dinner meeting, he said. Straus, meanwhile, plans to release copies of signed pledges from his supporters on Monday. He claims 88 votes to Smithee's 57. That leaves five members unaccounted for, but if the numbers hold until January 13, Straus is well past the 76 votes it takes to win the job.

Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, says he's got enough names to be the next House Speaker. (We have the list here and more stuff here and here.) Bloggers are also talking about the fall of Rep. Tom Craddick, R-Midland. There's more stuff on the House Speaker race in general and even a bit on unrelated matters, too.

* * * * *

Straus' House?

KVUE's Political Junkie shoots footage of Straus shortly after becoming the frontrunner for the speakership. And Straus sits down for a video interview and a podcast interview with Texas Politics, the Houston Chronicle's blog.

Off the Kuff is supporting Straus, and so is Rep.-elect Marisa Marquez, D-El Paso, according to the El Paso Times's Vaqueros & Wonkeros. Meanwhile, A Capitol Blog blogger Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, calls Straus "a close friend" but doesn't say he'll be voting for him. (He's on Straus' list of supporters, published later.)

Another former Craddick Democrat, Rep. Ruth Jones McClendon of San Antonio, says she's backing Straus, according to Texas Politics. Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, is with Straus, too, BurkaBlog says. And Junkie has video of Rep. Dawnna Dukes, D-Austin, being coy about her speaker preference. But Dukes later tells Postcards from the Lege, the Austin American-Statesman's blog, that she's for Straus.

"He's from the Daddy Bush "elite" wing of the GOP," but is still better than Craddick, says Eye on Williamson. The Austin Chronicle's newsdesk talks with Rep. Tommy Merritt, R-Longview, and Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, about Straus and what they like about him. But Capitol Annex says, "Strauss [sic] as Speaker would be a complete and utter unmitigated disaster for Democrats."

Blue Dot Blues calls Straus a "Liberal Republican" for being pro-choice, pro-gambling and pro-spending, in their estimation. But Libertarian Republican says Straus is the "most libertarian" state representative. Straus himself tells Texas Politics, "I believe in the sanctity of life." And Annex relays an online "assault" on Straus by former Texas GOP vice chair David Barton.

Texas Politics looks at Straus' campaign finances, saying "there's a lot of lobby money in here." Musings digs up a bio of Straus from a (nonpolitical) speaker booking website. And Rep. Sid Miller, R-Stephenville, says Straus' list doesn't matter, and the race is wide open.

Headline of the Week award goes to A Capitol Blog for a post comprised entirely of this title: "The Next Speaker of the House - Rep. Joe Straus." The author, of course, is one of his supporters in the House.

Politex digs and finds Straus would not be the state's first Jewish speaker of the House, but he'd be the first Jewish speaker of the House since Texas became a state. David Kaufman was speaker of the House when Texas was a Republic and went on to serve in the U.S. Congress. He's got a city and a county named for him.

* * * * *

Craddick's Last Dance

In a video taken by Junkie, Rep. Will Hartnett, R-Dallas, says the final blow to Craddick's reign was the withdrawal of support from so-called Craddick Ds. Hartnett says he and fellow former Craddick Republicans are now backing Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo. Rep. Dan Gattis, R-Georgetown, also says the defection of Craddick Democrats was the tipping point, according to Trail Blazers, the Dallas Morning News's blog. Postcards got a few seconds with Smithee and asked him some questions. (We spoke to Smithee here. And here's our report on Craddick dropping out of the speaker contest.)

Burka relays an email from a Republican informant describing Craddick as "worn out, tired, and despondent" in his last days as speaker. Craddick backer Rep. Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, slips up and tells PoliTex, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's blog, that Craddick had "50 to 53" votes. After being chastised, Chisum takes it back and says everyone supports Craddick except the ones who don't, according to Trail Blazers. [eds. note: If that seems like an old item, it's only because it's been a fast week.]

And Trail Blazers staked out the meeting of Craddick supporters Sunday night. The incumbent speaker showed up but managed to successfully avoid the scrum of reporters.

* * * * *

Other Players

Texas Watchdog profiles speaker candidates in an interactive map format. "The next speaker will be a Republican," Texas Politics says. Burka prognosticated before the weekend that the next speaker will be Gattis, Smithee or Rep. Burt Solomons, R-Carrollton. And here's a glossary of speaker's race acronyms by Junkie and a video primer by Empower Texans, via Trail Blazers.

Texas Politics chronicles efforts by Democrats to keep anti-Craddick pledge signers in line. Meanwhile, the El Paso Times's Vaqueros & Wonkeros posts on some minor conflicts among El Paso Dems.

* * * * *

In Other News...

The Texas Progressive Alliance names a bunch of Texans as its Texan of the Year -- the Harris County Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign. Anti Corruption Republican writes about a case involving Christine DeLay, the wife of former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay. And A Capitol Blog claims to be "the fifth longest running blog in this country by a state or federal legislator."

Eye on Williamson links to a state report on toll roads and a federal report on transportation infrastructure and says former Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle should run for governor.

Mike Falick's Blog links to several sites offering free college lectures. John Robert Behrman, a Democrat and an economist, makes "The Economic Case Against (and For) Nuclear Power in Texas" on Texas Kaos. Trail Blazers wonders why Gov. Rick Perry, who says he's not interested in federal politics, is making public statements on events in Gaza. And Old Soldier convinced his daughter to begin blogging.

Dos Centavos picks his top five posts of the year. The Houston Chronicle's Texas on the Potomac posts a variety of "top posts of the year" lists, including political cartoons, political videos, lists, posts and "Where are they now?" features. And here's the top 10 posts from Texas Watchdog.


This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

The signatures of ten House Democrats were missing from the list of Democrats who vowed not to vote for Tom Craddick reelection under any circumstances.

And Craddick told Republican colleagues that he got out of the race this weekend when he found that some of his Democratic supporters had jumped ship and were supporting Republican Joe Straus of San Antonio.

Only two are unaccounted for: Reps. Harold Dutton and Al Edwards of Houston.

Six of the ten — Dawnna Dukes of Austin, Kino Flores of Palmview, Helen Giddings of Dallas, Tracy King of Batesville, Ruth Jones McClendon of San Antonio, and Aaron Peña of Edinburg — were on the first list of Straus supporters published on Sunday evening, and two more — Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City and Sylvester Turner of Houston — were on board in a second release of names a few hours later.

Republican John Smithee — the unanimous choice of 57 Republicans who stuck with Craddick to the end — hasn't collected any Democratic votes yet, that we know of. No Democrats were invited to the dinner that got him those 57 supporters, and Dutton and Edwards are the only two Democrats in the Texas House who aren't on the Straus list.

Smithee hasn't released his list of supporters, though he promised to do so later today. The count is three Republicans short (76 Republicans, less the 16 on the Straus list and the 57 on the Smithee list), but we don't know which three just yet.

Joe Straus showed off signatures from members who've endorsed him, all but claimed victory, and said he plans to meet with his last remaining rival — John Smithee to try to wrap up the race for House speaker.Straus did a packed press conference in the Capitol Rotunda, praised House Speaker Tom Craddick's service, said "the project is not quite complete," and said he'd talked to Smithee and is trying to set up a meeting. Straus stood in the middle of a mob of House members under a picture of former Gov. and House Speaker Price Daniel and in front of a bank of cameras and a throng of reporters, staffers, lobbyists and other gawkers. Add five names to the 88 he announced previously: Joe Driver of Garland, Al Edwards of Houston, Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton of Mauriceville, Patricia Harless of Spring, and Wayne Smith of Baytown. The complete list, including those additions: Democrats (73): Alma Allen, Roberto Alonzo, Carol Alvarado, Rafael Anchia, Valinda Bolton, Lon Burnam, Joaquin Castro, Norma Chavez, Ellen Cohen, Garnet Coleman, Yvonne Davis, Joe Deshotel, Dawnna Dukes, Jim Dunnam, Al Edwards, Craig Eiland, Kirk England, Joe Farias, David Farabee, Jessica Farrar, Kino Flores, Stephen Frost, Pete Gallego, Helen Giddings, Veronica Gonzalez, Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles, Ryan Guillen, Roland Gutierrez, Joe Heflin, Ana Hernandez, Abel Herrero, Scott Hochberg, Terri Hodge, Mark Homer, Chuck Hopson, Donna Howard, Carol Kent, Tracy King, David Leibowitz, Eddie Lucio, Diana Maldonado, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Marisa Marquez, Armando Martinez, Trey Martinez Fischer, Ruth Jones McClendon, Jim McReynolds, Jose Menendez, Robert Miklos, Joe Moody, Elliott Naishtat, Rene Oliveira, Dora Olivo, Solomon Ortiz, Aaron Pena, Joe Pickett, Paula Pierson, Chente Quintanilla, Richard Raymond, Tara Rios Ybarra, Allan Ritter, Eddie Rodriguez, Patrick Rose, Mark Strama, Kristi Thibaut, Senfronia Thompson, Chris Turner, Sylvester Turner, Allen Vaught, Marc Veasey, Mike Villarreal, Hubert Vo, Armando Walle. Republicans (20): Dan Branch, Angie Chen Button, Byron Cook, Joe Driver, Rob Eissler, Gary Elkins, Charlie Geren, Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton, Patricia Harless, Delwin Jones, Jim Keffer, Edmund Kuempel, Brian McCall, Tommy Merritt, Doug Miller, Jim Pitts, Burt Solomons, Todd Smith, Wayne Smith, Joe Straus.
John Smithee dropped his day-old bid for speaker, citing insurmountable support for his fellow Republican, Joe Straus."The numbers became obvious," Smithee said. "We had to get some of our people back, and we went the other way... I knew the odds were very long, so it was either surrender yesterday [Sunday] or try something. I've tried to do it in a respectful and courteous and professional way, and I hope that I've done that." Smithee talked to reporters outside his office and then issued a statement from him and from Rep. Dan Gattis, who is also dropping his bid:
"It has become apparent in the last 12 hours that Rep. Straus carries enough votes to become the next speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, and that any effort to challenge him is not in the best interest of the Texas House. As a result, we are both withdrawing our candidacies for speaker. Our priority is to take the focus off speaker politics and concentrate on how we can best serve the people of Texas in the 81st Legislature."
Straus followed with one of his own:
"John Smithee is my friend and a highly respected leader in the House. I appreciated his courteous phone call moments ago and notification of his withdrawal. John's difficult decision and gracious gesture is another step towards unity in the House."
Rep. Will Hartnett of Dallas, walking out of a meeting with Smithee said a group of Republicans who'd supported the Amarillo rep will drop their opposition to Straus, who had locked up nearly two-thirds of the House. Speaker Tom Craddick dropped his reelection bid on Sunday, citing his own loss of support. The Republicans who supported him — 55 or 57 of them, depending on the account — voted unanimously to support Smithee after considering him, Gattis, and three other alternatives to Straus. That effort, sealed Sunday night, was over less than a day later. Straus was the pick of a group of 11 ABC — Anybody But Craddick — Republicans who banded together, voted amongst themselves and agreed to support the winner of that vote. Straus won that ballot Friday night, spent Saturday and most of Sunday gathering votes, and announced he'd collected enough of them before Craddick's Sunday meeting. Straus' numbers grew throughout the day Monday, leading to conversations between the two and finally, up to Smithee's withdrawal.

Rep. Joe Straus has more than two-thirds of the House supporting his bid for speaker. That's well beyond the 76 he needs, and now that John Smithee is out of the contest, it's likely Straus will be the only candidate when the legislative session starts next week.The list: Democrats (73): Alma Allen, Roberto Alonzo, Carol Alvarado, Rafael Anchia, Valinda Bolton, Lon Burnam, Joaquin Castro, Norma Chavez, Ellen Cohen, Garnet Coleman, Yvonne Davis, Joe Deshotel, Dawnna Dukes, Jim Dunnam, Al Edwards, Craig Eiland, Kirk England, Joe Farias, David Farabee, Jessica Farrar, Kino Flores, Stephen Frost, Pete Gallego, Helen Giddings, Veronica Gonzalez, Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles, Ryan Guillen, Roland Gutierrez, Joe Heflin, Ana Hernandez, Abel Herrero, Scott Hochberg, Terri Hodge, Mark Homer, Chuck Hopson, Donna Howard, Carol Kent, Tracy King, David Leibowitz, Eddie Lucio, Diana Maldonado, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Marisa Marquez, Armando Martinez, Trey Martinez Fischer, Ruth Jones McClendon, Jim McReynolds, Jose Menendez, Robert Miklos, Joe Moody, Elliott Naishtat, Rene Oliveira, Dora Olivo, Solomon Ortiz, Aaron Pena, Joe Pickett, Paula Pierson, Chente Quintanilla, Richard Raymond, Tara Rios Ybarra, Allan Ritter, Eddie Rodriguez, Patrick Rose, Mark Strama, Kristi Thibaut, Senfronia Thompson, Chris Turner, Sylvester Turner, Allen Vaught, Marc Veasey, Mike Villarreal, Hubert Vo, Armando Walle. Republicans (30): Dan Branch, Angie Chen Button, Byron Cook, Drew Darby, John Davis, Joe Driver, Rob Eissler, Gary Elkins, Charlie Geren, Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton, Patricia Harless, Harvey Hildebran, Todd Hunter, Delwin Jones, Jim Keffer, Edmund Kuempel, Jerry Madden, Brian McCall, Tommy Merritt, Doug Miller, Sid Miller, Rob Orr, John Otto, Diane Patrick, Larry Phillips, Jim Pitts, Todd Smith, Wayne Smith, Burt Solomons, Joe Straus.

Cyndi Krier, the former Bexar County Judge and state senator, and former Rep. Clyde Alexander will apparently be helping Joe Straus III with his transition into the speaker's office.Krier's a Republican. Alexander, who served from Athens but now lives in San Antonio, is a Democrat. The transition team is still being assembled, but those two will be "senior advisors" during the transition.

Put U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, on your list of potential candidates for Texas attorney general in 2010. It's not open at the moment, but if it opens up, he'll be among the interested parties. And, we're told, he'll file papers this quarter allowing him to raise state campaign money for that gig.

AG Greg Abbott is looking at possibilities ranging from lieutenant governor to U.S. Senate. The implication there is that Abbott would run for whichever is open if and when Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns from the Senate. If Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst runs for reelection, Abbott would go for the federal deal. If Dewhurst runs for the federal deal, Abbott would run for the state gig.

The filing deadline for both races is in the first days of January 2010 — about 12 months from now.

McCaul starts with an empty federal campaign purse, but he's personally wealthy and will be getting an early start raising money for the state race.

Abbott had $8 million in his state campaign account at mid-year. None of that is transferable to a federal account, since the state doesn't limit contributions and the feds do (to $2,300 per person). He'd have an initial advantage in a state race, but would start at scratch in a federal race.

The AG's office is on next year's ballot. Hutchison's Senate seat is up in 2012 — unless she resigns early.

• Semi-related: Former U.S. Senate candidate Barbara Ann Radnofsky of Houston says she'll shut down her political committees for now. She has talked about running for AG in 2010 (she's a Democrat), and might yet do so. But she's going dormant for now.

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison started the New Year with a series of fundraising letters dissing Gov. Rick Perry and asking for support for her exploratory committee for governor. She's thinking about running in 2010 and Perry says he'll be seeking reelection. That sets up a noisy primary a year from March.

"Ten years of one man in the Governor’s office has left challenges unanswered, too little trust and consensus, and too much infighting," she writes in the fundraising letter. "This tone comes from the top and we can do something about it."

She hit some themes you'll probably hear if there's a race, noting that the state budget has doubled over ten years, that "our state government ignores private property rights and property owners in a quest to cover our state with massive Toll Roads," and raising questions about scandals in the Texas Youth Commission and state mental facilities. She attributes the health of the state budget to high oil prices (that's only partly right) and says those won't continue.

She includes pitches from well-known Texans from around the state (different folks are signed on for different regions) and some of them have been Perry supporters up to now. Among the notables: Actor Chuck Norris, former pitcher Nolan Ryan, Houston beer distributor John Nau III, Austin lawyer Pete Winstead, Dallas investor Louis Beecherl Jr., former Temple-Inland CEO Kenneth Jastrow II, U.S. Rep. Kay Granger of Fort Worth, former U.S. Reps. Dick Armey of Flower Mound and Henry Bonilla of San Antonio, former Dallas Cowboy Roger Staubach, former Lubbock Mayor Windy Sitton, Amarillo investor Wales Madden Jr., Joci Straus of San Antonio (mother of speaker-apparent Joe Straus), and a group from Houston that includes Drayton McLane, Edd Hendee, Ned Holmes and former U.S. Education Secretary Rod Paige.

If lawmakers were to do redistricting this year (based on mid-2007 estimates from the Census Bureau, the latest available), the average House district would have about 20,000 more people in it than in 2000. And the migration of political power from rural areas to populated areas — especially suburbs — would be particularly painful for rural Texas.

Do the math to see which counties would gain seats in that hypothetical drawing and Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Williamson, and Montgomery counties rise to the top. Each — depending on rounding and whether and how districts cross county line — would gain a seat in the Texas House. Most of the losses would be spread across rural Texas; for the most part, those multi-county districts would have to grow in geographic size, diluting local interests, to keep up with the numbers. But some losers are clear: Dallas County would lose a seat, and El Paso and Jefferson counties would lose some clout, too. You don't have to lose population to lose power in this arithmetic; growing more slowly than the rest of the state is enough to do the damage.

The trend is similar but less clear in the state Senate, where districts are bigger and the chance of a county getting a whole new Senate seat are small. The size of the average district would jump to 771,109 from 672,638 if the 2007 estimates were used. That's 98,470 more people in each senator's district, and rural district lines will have to be stretched to find sufficient population (at the time they're drawn, districts have to be equal in size).

Congressional seats work a little differently. If Texas gains three seats (we're growing while other states grow less quickly or shrink), one will probably go in the Collin-Denton county area. Another would probably go to the vicinity of Harris/Fort Bend counties. Rural congressional districts in Texas would get bigger, geographically, to make up for lost population. Tarrant and Bexar counties probably wouldn't get entire new seats, but their increases might ensure that seats they share with others were dominated by those urban centers. Same with Travis and Williamson counties, which are adjacent.

Huge areas of Texas — 118 of 254 counties — lost population between the 2000 census and mid-2007, according to the Census Bureau's estimates. Only 31 of the state's counties grew faster than the state as a whole, and they tended to be larger counties. Only four of the state's 15 biggest counties missed that growth mark and one of them — Bexar County — only missed by a tenth of a percent. Those counties will be first in line to gain seats, since they grew the most on both a percentage and raw number basis. Only five of the 50 largest counties lost population, although 28 of that top 50 grew more slowly than the state as a whole.

This is early and highly speculative. The trends are clear, but the specifics will change when the real 2010 census numbers are in and when the real political work is done on redistricting — when creative people bend the demographic facts to their advantage, or try to.

Dr. Francisco Cigarroa, a transplant surgeon and the president of the University of Texas Health Science Center in San Antonio, is the new chancellor of the UT System.UT's regents made that official Friday, after making him the sole finalist for the top job last month. The 51-year-old will become the 10th chancellor of the UT System next month.

Speaker-apparent Joe Straus capped the week by saying former Rep. Clyde Alexander will be his chief of staff.Alexander, who served as a Democrat from Athens, now lives in San Antonio and is friends with the new speaker. He's been involved in the transition since Straus announced he had the votes to become speaker. He'd been rumored for the job from the outset and has been helping Straus to put a game plan together for the session. Former Bexar County Judge and state sen. Cyndi Krier, also of San Antonio, will stay on as senior advisor into the legislative session. Though he served as a Democrat, Alexander as a political contributor has been more generous to Republicans since 2002, giving $62,453 to their candidates while giving $20,345 to Democrats. His biggest beneficiaries include Gov. Rick Perry, $20,000; Carole Keeton Strayhorn, $19,000; Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, $6,000; and $5,000 each to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and to House Speaker Tom Craddick. The contributions to Perry, Dewhurst, and Craddick were all made in December 2002 — the month after the elections when the Republicans took solid control of the statehouse. Rep. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs, has been Alexander's biggest Democratic beneficiary, pulling in $10,005 in contributions. John Sharp got $5,000, and Sen. Kirk Watson got $3,000. Krier's $54,482 in contributions mostly went to Republicans, though $13,139 went to the state and federal political action committees at USAA, where she worked after leaving public office. She contributed $12,000 to the Associated Republicans of Texas, $7,500 to Perry, $1,000 to Straus, $3,000 to Comptroller Susan Combs, $3,000 to George Antuna, who ran against Rep. Joe Farias, D-San Antonio, in 2006. Here's his press release:

With the near unanimous support of Members and Representatives-Elect of the Texas House of Representatives supporting his election as Speaker, and operating in an extremely compressed period of time in which to organize the House for a productive beginning of the 81st Regular Session, Representative Joe Straus has today asked former State Representative Clyde Alexander of San Antonio to serve as his Chief of Staff. Mr. Alexander, who represented the East Texas counties of Freestone, Henderson and Navarro in the House from 1989-2003, accepted the appointment. Representative Straus will continue to have the counsel of former Texas Senator and Bexar County Judge Cyndi Taylor Krier in the ensuing days as Senior Adviser. Statement by Representative Straus "This has been an extraordinary week for all of us in the Texas House. I am gratified by the support and friendship of so many Members, uniting to serve the people's business. I am honored that Clyde has accepted to return to his beloved House, in a fulltime role at my side. Clyde's insights and advice are essential to me. Clearly, Clyde shares my fervent desire to do what is best for the body. Cyndi's counsel at this critical time is invaluable to me and to Clyde. I have asked Cyndi to continue indefinitely in her volunteer role as my Senior Adviser." ###