Gilbert and Hutchison Campaigns Hate Polls
Not surprisingly, aides to two gubernatorial hopefuls who didn't finish first among their party brethren in the inaugural UT/Texas Tribune poll are questioning the poll's methodology. Vince Leibowitz, campaign manager for Democrat Hank Gilbert, has been insisting to everyone and anyone today that surveys taken over the Internet are worthless measures of public opinion. "People may complain about the reliability of telephone polls, but the reliability of this poll is so far from being beyond reproach I don't even know what else to say," he told Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News. Meanwhile, Terry Sullivan ...
Comments (5)
hcookaustin
Neither Hank Gilbert nor KBH has ever given me a reason to care a lick about either of 'em and several reasons not to, and I have my deep doubts about the poll as well. Not so much because I'm some big expert in research methods, but because of the doubts of virtually every professional I know and work with who understands far more about research methods than I, and who see more polls in one election cycle than most will see in a lifetime.
So if your thesis is that complaints about the poll come from those with a vested interest in complaining, I guess I just blew the curve on that test.
IndyTexan
I'm glad to see you guys up and running. We need another and, hopefully, more objective voice that's not afraid to break ranks with tradition. I used to be a Gallup poll interviewer. There are increasing limitations presented in phone interviewing, so I see no reason that internet polling cannot compete and perhaps even be more accurate. Your results seem plausible -- and of course, it's too early for any poll to be all that meaningful.
Conclusion: candidates and their staff need not get their panties in a wad.
InterestedReader
I’m disappointed that your response to legitimate criticism of your polling methodology is to ignore the message by posting a diatribe against selected messengers. Your cynically defensive statement, “It has been ever thus that when a poll produces a finding favorable to your candidate, the methodology is perfect ...; as soon as the very same poll produces an unfavorable finding, the same methodology is fatally flawed....” simply isn’t true.
As a supporter of the Tribune, I’m appalled that you appear to have abandoned your stated mission of “promot[ing] civic engagement and discourse on public policy, politics..” Do you actually believe in discourse?
Why didn’t you quote, or if nothing else reference, Paul Burka’s blog, in which he compliments you on performing surveys, and then questions your methodology?
(http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/?p=5186) “..I continue to be skeptical about the poll’s methodology…. the UT/Tribune poll is our best hope for a regular flow of campaign information, so I’m going to have to get used to it. But my confidence level is not very high”
Rather than throwing your in-house pollsters under the bus, why not have a discussion about Polimetrix (the company that performed the survey) and their approach? While most professional pollsters don’t yet believe in the technique you used, as Burka points out, it’s the future. (See also http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_rt_strategies_polimetrix_t.php)
If the Tribune concept is going to work, you’re going to have to live your mission statement, respect the community, and leave your disparaging defensive reactions in the gutter where they belong.
CapitolAnnex
A couple of things needing clarification:
1. I did not personally speak with Wayne Slater this morning. He quoted from the campaign press release, which is also quoted elsewhere on the Texas Tribune website.
2. You seem to enjoy mocking the fact that I told you--in a conversation which was never specified as being on the record--that I would not have had Hank's communications team put out a press release touting a first place showing in this poll. I stand by that 100 percent. As has been noted by numerous other media outlets this morning, there are numerous problems with online polls and specifically with the methodology behind this type of poll. I believe this very fact is why so few campaigns listed as part of this poll went out of their way to make a big deal out of their respective showings. Hank's team would have sent no glowing press release about a first place showing in this poll because I know other campaigns out there, not to mention the media, are aware of the same problems and flaws we are. Knowing such flaws exist and crowing about results anyway only to have the entire poll discounted later by the media or another candidate isn't really the kind of earned media campaigns strive for.
Inasmuch as we no doubt must agree to disagree, I believe it is worth noting that skeptics of this poll outnumber those defending it.
Congrats on the launch. The site looks great and I have enjoyed the other stories on the site.
Vince Leibowitz
Patricia Morrison
CONGRATULATIONS
AND
ONWARD!
P A MORRISON