History Shows Runoffs Difficult to Predict
Debra Medina’s giving Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison good reason to make sure they don’t have plans on the second Tuesday of April.
The latest Rasmussen Reports numbers have Medina at 12%, Perry at 43%, and Hutchison at 33%. If Perry fails to get a majority of the vote in the primary — what current projections show happening — a runoff would occur between the top two finishers on April 13.
A look at historical election returns reveals what could be a boon to Hutchison: incumbents like Perry have bad luck in runoff contests. But ...
Comments (3)
Brendan
' For his money, Blakemore says that’s Hutchison. “Medina’s candidacy is against the status-quo,” he said, “She would say that she's so far against the status-quo that both Perry and Hutchison are unacceptable. But if you are unhappy with the status quo, and your only two votes are Perry and Hutchison, then your votes are going to Hutchison.” '
I think Blakemore's analysis is mostly wrong. Hutchison comes to us from the Washington status-quo which is much more poisonous to Medina supporters. After the first debate, the outpouring of support for Medina, from what I saw/read, was from folks who were going to vote Perry. Additionally, Hutchison loves the pork barrel and that's a big tea party issue.
If Medina doesn't pull ahead of Hutchison ultimately and the runoff is between Perry and Hutchison then Perry wins. If Medina pulls ahead of Hutchison and the runoff is between Perry and Hutchison then that's a tossup.
Brendan
Woops, what I meant in my last sentence (as you probably inferred):
If Medina pulls ahead of H. and the runoff is between Perry and Medina then that's a tossup.
In other words, the Hutchison voters are more 'anyone but Perry,' and the Medina voters are more about principles.
Vicente
I'm at a total loss as to why people still back Perry. Maybe because he's a graduate of A&M(1972). There have charges of cronyism and politicization of appointments, rewarding political supporters and punishing opponents. He has handed out prestigious positions to state boards and commissions and retracted them when He deems actionable. He has killed popular legislation that has passed with substantial majorities in the state legislature. Perry politicized federal stimulus funding for unemployment benefits by refusing them. Additionally he refused public education monies for the same reasons. Add to this mix his attempt to ram through the Trans-Texas Corridor with heavy-handedness and intimidation of local officials. Perry inherited the Governorship from Bush and he has let the arrogance of his office corrupt him. We need to do a house cleaning. Perry and Hutchinson have out stayed their welcome. Do not be swayed with the constant rhetoric being spewed by the well-financed elite. Remember absolute power corrupts. “Vote out the Encumbants”. Vote Out The Encumbant Republicans —Vote Out The Encumbant - Democrats —Vote Out The Encumbant entrenched political heirarchy. Since we do not have “Initiative and Referendum” nor “Term limitation” in many states and areas I feel “We the people” should vote out all the entrenched career politicians. Vote Medina!