Rational Numbers
Republican Ted Delisi is singing an old, outdated song in an effort to reestablish “conventional wisdom” that dismisses the possibility of a Democratic statewide victory in 2010. Like a lot of Austin-based “conventional wisdom,” his contention is not supported by the numbers.
The only actual election vote total Delisi cherry-picked for his recent Tribune column indicated the Republican presidential vote margin increased in Montgomery County between 2004 and 2008. However, Montgomery County was the single exception to the rule. In every other major urban and suburban Texas county, where the vast majority of Texans cast their ballots, the Democratic vote ...
Comments (3)
teddelisi
Ed misses the central point of my article, but he provides enough facts masquerading as selective spin to the give the newly employed Democrat diehards some shreds of hope.
The premise of my article is that McCain won Texas by almost a 1 million votes in 2008. In the face of an unpopular war and a controversial president, in face of Obamamania, Texas Republicans still win statewide elections by almost a million votes.
Let's be exact -- McCain won Texas by 950,695 votes. It is a statistic impossible to refute. If winning races by almost a million votes is "conventional wisdom", well then, that's what it will be. But, it will also be a stubborn fact, conventional or not.
Montgomery County's 2008 margin isn't the only vote total I referenced. In fact, it isn't even the first election result reference in my editorial. But, let's talk about Montgomery County -- a county where Republicans in 2008 won an astounding 76% of the vote. The purpose of referencing the 83,000 vote margin is just to show that of the embarrassingly low 28 counties that Obama won, much of his margins in those counties is eaten up by a single county.
But, let me put it another way to illustrate the same stubborn reality. In 2008, Democrats won Dallas County by 112,989 votes, yet lost all the counties surrounding Dallas by a combined 258,292 votes. The author of the editorial wants to brag on progress, but the Dallas area report card in 2008 still shows that you are down 145,303 votes. Not exactly time to celebrate.
These are the numbers that make it so difficult to win because you are winning so few counties (as Obama did) that you need impossibly large margins in the counties you do win.
Sure, Democrats have made gains in certain counties, I'l concede that. It has been a difficult few years for Republicans, no mystery there. But, there is still a high mountain to climb to win statewide With President Obama's approval ratings in downward spiral, the environment appears to be more favorable for conservatives than in the last few cycles.
Much has recently been made about Bill White's yet to be determined popularity in the Houston media market. But, as Ron Kirk found out so acutely in 2002, translating the non-partisan mayoral acclaim into a statewide partisan office is extremely difficult task. When you've left your city with a mountain of debt and increased the police department budget by 40% without adding any police officers, Bill White won't have an easy task running for Governor.
hcookaustin
Dude, you blew all that on a comment? You could have issued another rebuttal piece, and I hear the Tribune throws in your picture for absolutely free.
austinstout
Bill White is not Barack Obama and 2010 is not 2002. The UT/Trib poll shows that this race will be won or lost among independents, who probably call a suburban county home. Who do they vote for? Rick Perry; a career politician, 10 year incumbent, author of an abysmal chapter in Texas history, right-wing radical, who has just limped out of a bruising primary? Or a fresh face, moderate, who's best known for Texas' proudest moments in recent memory. I live in Montgomery County and I am surprised everyday by the support I hear for Bill White in unlikely places. My hunch is that among mainstream voters, the "Katrina Guy" is more appealing than someone that the New York Times called "George W. Bush on steroids."
And I just have to defend my home county a bit. I understand that there was a large raw vote margin in Montgomery County. But I would note that those raw margins increased by 28% on the Democratic side, and only 15% on the Republican side. The Republicans might have increased their vote count, but we did so at nearly twice the rate and chipped 2% off of their vote percentage. Like the other suburban counties mentioned, it's moving in the same direction, just at a slower rate.