Perry Up by 9 in New UT/TT Poll | 5/23/10
Republican Rick Perry leads Democrat Bill White by 9 percentage points — 44 percent to 35 percent — in the 2010 race for governor, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll.
Those numbers are identical to the results of a "fantasy race" between White and Perry in the February UT/Tribune poll, which was taken before Democratic and Republican primary voters selected the two men as their nominees. This time, 15 percent said they don't know yet whom they'll vote for, and 7 percent said they'd prefer "someone else." That last finding could be consequential: Libertarians ...
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pctx101
Republicans always act arrogant and believe anytime you knock off one of theirs that you're a "seat warmer."
Out of the two, I'd say Miklos is more vulnerable. He will have the support of the HDCC and the trial lawyers so he'll be well funded. The minority vote in Mesquite/Balch Springs may be tough to turnout in a midterm. But with Bill White at the top and Craig Watkins downticket, Miklos will have some support. I'd say this one is a tossup.
In 102, Carol defeated a 20 year incumbent by 2500 votes, far more than what Obama was able to beat McCain by. What Neerman didn't tell you was that she carried precincts that went for Goolsby over his 2006 opponent Harriet Miller. She is very popular among the PTAs across the district, and has strong support with independent and even Republican women. She has 150k in the bank, and the best candidates Neerman can run are a 30 year old from Plano, and another 30 year old who has no ties to the district. Having said that Carol will run a real race and won't take anything for granted. There are other freshman Democrats more vulnerable than Carol. I'd say Maldonado, Thibaut, and Moody would be ahead of her on that list.
TonyInDallas
The only seat warmers I see here are the writer of this article and the GOP Chairman - neither of whom could be bothered to look up the actual percentage by which Carol Kent won HD102 in 2008. If they had, they would know that 3% of Carol's voters were absolute, hard-core Republicans. Straight Republican voters who crossed over and voted for her specifically.
Obama won HD102 with 50.2% of the vote. Carol Kent won it with 53.01% of the vote.
That roughly 3% margin over Obama are squarely, wholly Republicans who did *not* vote for Obama. Even if the majority-minority precincts don't turn out in big numbers this fall, that 3% of Republican voters will once again support Carol because of her proven record in RISD and her many first term results on behalf of her constituents.