The Texas Weekly Index
Candidates can file to run in the 2016 elections in Texas starting on Saturday (Nov. 14) and running through Monday, Dec. 14. The primaries are on March 1 and early voting begins on Feb. 16, the Tuesday after President’s Day.
With that in mind, we wanted to post up the current state of play, listing incumbents, whether they plan to seek another term, and the Texas Weekly Index for the area they represent. In the case of senators, we also note which seats will be on the ballot in 2016.
The Texas Weekly Index is a measure of the political environment of each political district — averaging the results in competitive statewide races in which both parties had candidates. The Index is the difference between those average winners and losers, marked as either a Democratic or Republican advantage with an R or a D. This latest version averages the results in 2012, a presidential year, and 2014, a gubernatorial year. It’s not a prediction of what might happen, but a look back at what has happened before.
Each chart is sortable, and we’ll put out a full update when the prospective candidates have actually signed up to run.
Texas Weekly Index, Statewide (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
| Office | Incumbent | Party | Retiring? | TWI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRC | Porter, David | R | N | R 18.6 |
| SCOTEX 3 | Lehrmann, Debra | R | N | R 18.6 |
| SCOTEX 5 | Green, Paul | R | N | R 18.6 |
| SCOTEX 9 | Guzman, Eva | R | N | R 18.6 |
| CCA 2 | Meyers, Lawrence | D | N | R 18.6 |
| CCA 5 | Johnson, Cheryl | R | N | R 18.6 |
| CCA 6 | Keasler, Mike | R | N | R 18.6 |
Texas Weekly Index, Congress (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
| District | Incumbent | Party | Retiring? | TWI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gohmert , Louie | R | N | R 46.5 |
| 2 | Poe , Ted | R | N | R 29.9 |
| 3 | Johnson, Sam | R | N | R 33.2 |
| 4 | Ratcliffe, John | R | N | R 47.9 |
| 5 | Hensarling , Jeb | R | N | R 31.8 |
| 6 | Barton , Joe | R | N | R 18.7 |
| 7 | Culberson , John | R | N | R 25.3 |
| 8 | Brady , Kevin | R | N | R 56.7 |
| 9 | Green, Al | D | N | D 53.3 |
| 10 | McCaul , Michael | R | N | R 20.8 |
| 11 | Conaway , Mike | R | N | R 61.6 |
| 12 | Granger , Kay | R | N | R 35.5 |
| 13 | Thornberry , Mac | R | N | R 62.3 |
| 14 | Weber, Randy | R | N | R 19.5 |
| 15 | Hinojosa , Ruben | D | N | D 11.6 |
| 16 | O'Rourke, Beto | D | N | D 23.3 |
| 17 | Flores , Bill | R | N | R 24.7 |
| 18 | Jackson Lee , Sheila | D | N | D 50.5 |
| 19 | Neugebauer , Randy | R | Y | R 53.5 |
| 20 | Castro, Joaquin | D | N | D 15.2 |
| 21 | Smith , Lamar | R | N | R 22.7 |
| 22 | Olson , Pete | R | N | R 28.9 |
| 23 | Hurd, Will | R | N | R 08.1 |
| 24 | Marchant , Kenny | R | N | R 26.4 |
| 25 | Williams, Roger | R | N | R 21.3 |
| 26 | Burgess , Michael | R | N | R 38.9 |
| 27 | Farenthold , Blake | R | N | R 24.6 |
| 28 | Cuellar , Henry | D | N | D 14.8 |
| 29 | Green, Gene | D | N | D 29.6 |
| 30 | Johnson , Eddie Bernice | D | N | D 57.0 |
| 31 | Carter , John | R | N | R 24.0 |
| 32 | Sessions , Pete | R | N | R 18.9 |
| 33 | Veasey, Marc | D | N | D 40.8 |
| 34 | Vela, Filemon | D | N | D 15.3 |
| 35 | Doggett, Lloyd | D | N | D 26.1 |
| 36 | Babin, Brian | R | N | R 46.7 |
Texas Weekly Index, Senate (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
| District | Incumbent | Party | Term ending? | Retiring? | TWI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eltife, Kevin | R | Y | Y | R 45.7 |
| 2 | Hall, Bob | R | N | N | R 29.5 |
| 3 | Nichols, Robert | R | N | N | R 51.2 |
| 4 | Creighton, Brandon | R | Y | N | R 41.9 |
| 5 | Schwertner, Charles | R | N | N | R 29.9 |
| 6 | Garcia, Sylvia | D | Y | N | D 30.4 |
| 7 | Bettencourt, Paul | R | N | N | R 38.8 |
| 8 | Taylor, Van | R | N | N | R 28.5 |
| 9 | Hancock, Kelly | R | N | N | R 23.9 |
| 10 | Burton, Konni | D | N | N | R 09.6 |
| 11 | Taylor, Larry | R | Y | N | R 32.1 |
| 12 | Nelson, Jane | R | Y | N | R 36.6 |
| 13 | Ellis, Rodney | D | Y | N | D 65.4 |
| 14 | Watson, Kirk | D | N | N | D 24.3 |
| 15 | Whitmire, John | D | N | N | D 16.6 |
| 16 | Huffines, Donald | R | N | N | R 19.4 |
| 17 | Huffman, Joan | R | N | N | R 23.8 |
| 18 | Kolkhorst, Lois | R | Y | N | R 39.2 |
| 19 | Uresti, Carlos | D | Y | N | D 05.6 |
| 20 | Hinojosa, Juan "Chuy" | D | Y | N | D 11.4 |
| 21 | Zaffirini, Judith | D | Y | N | D 14.4 |
| 22 | Birdwell, Brian | R | Y | N | R 38.9 |
| 23 | West, Royce | D | N | N | D 60.0 |
| 24 | Fraser, Troy | R | Y | Y | R 46.1 |
| 25 | Campbell, Donna | R | N | N | R 31.9 |
| 26 | Menendez, Jose | D | Y | N | D 21.9 |
| 27 | Lucio, Eddie | D | Y | N | D 30.8 |
| 28 | Perry, Charles | R | Y | N | R 52.6 |
| 29 | Rodriguez, Jose | D | Y | N | D 25.6 |
| 30 | Estes, Craig | R | N | N | R 52.8 |
| 31 | Seliger, Kel | R | N | N | R 63.8 |
Texas Weekly Index, House (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
| District | Incumbent | Party | Retiring? | TWI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VanDeaver, Gary | R | N | R 41.8 |
| 2 | Flynn, Dan | R | N | R 55.0 |
| 3 | Bell Jr., Cecil | R | N | R 58.5 |
| 4 | Spitzer, Stuart | R | N | R 48.6 |
| 5 | Hughes, Bryan | R | Y | R 52.3 |
| 6 | Schaefer, Matt | R | N | R 45.3 |
| 7 | Simpson, David | R | Y | R 46.7 |
| 8 | Cook, Byron | R | N | R 49.1 |
| 9 | Paddie, Chris | R | N | R 42.9 |
| 10 | Wray, John | R | N | R 47.7 |
| 11 | Clardy, Travis | R | N | R 48.5 |
| 12 | Kacal, Kyle | R | N | R 28.7 |
| 13 | Schubert, Leighton | R | N | R 53.6 |
| 14 | Raney, John | R | N | R 31.5 |
| 15 | Keough, Mark | R | N | R 56.3 |
| 16 | Metcalf, Will | R | N | R 64.3 |
| 17 | Cyrier, John | R | N | R 22.4 |
| 18 | Otto, John | R | Y | R 43.6 |
| 19 | White, James | R | N | R 52.7 |
| 20 | Farney, Marsha | R | N | R 45.2 |
| 21 | Phelan, Dade | R | N | R 45.9 |
| 22 | Deshotel, Joe | D | N | D 33.3 |
| 23 | Faircloth, Wayne | D | N | R 10.3 |
| 24 | Bonnen, Greg | R | N | R 47.6 |
| 25 | Bonnen, Dennis | R | N | R 42.0 |
| 26 | Miller, Rick | R | N | R 32.6 |
| 27 | Reynolds, Ron | D | N | D 36.1 |
| 28 | Zerwas, John | R | N | R 34.3 |
| 29 | Thompson, Ed | R | N | R 28.3 |
| 30 | Morrison, Geanie | R | N | R 40.9 |
| 31 | Guillen, Ryan | D | N | D 19.0 |
| 32 | Hunter, Todd | R | N | R 17.6 |
| 33 | Turner, Scott | R | Y | R 48.1 |
| 34 | Herrero, Abel | D | N | D 06.7 |
| 35 | Longoria, Oscar | D | N | D 27.5 |
| 36 | Muñoz Jr., Sergio | D | N | D 44.0 |
| 37 | Oliveira, René | D | N | D 29.8 |
| 38 | Lucio III, Eddie | D | N | D 25.1 |
| 39 | Martinez, Armando "Mando" | D | N | D 42.4 |
| 40 | Canales, Terry | D | N | D 48.4 |
| 41 | Guerra, Robert "Bobby" | D | N | D 09.4 |
| 42 | Raymond, Richard | D | N | D 45.3 |
| 43 | Lozano, Jose Manuel | R | N | R 6.8 |
| 44 | Kuempel, John | R | N | R 40.0 |
| 45 | Isaac, Jason | R | N | R 14.1 |
| 46 | Dukes, Dawnna | D | N | D 55.4 |
| 47 | Workman, Paul | R | N | R 18.1 |
| 48 | Howard, Donna | D | N | D 18.2 |
| 49 | Naishtat, Elliott | D | N | D 46.3 |
| 50 | Israel, Celia | D | N | D 18.1 |
| 51 | Rodriguez, Eddie | D | N | D 59.5 |
| 52 | Gonzales, Larry | R | N | R 14.3 |
| 53 | Murr, Andrew | R | N | R 55.3 |
| 54 | Aycock, Jimmie Don | R | Y | R 15.9 |
| 55 | White, Molly | R | N | R 38.5 |
| 56 | Anderson, Charles "Doc" | R | N | R 42.8 |
| 57 | Ashby, Trent | R | N | R 48.2 |
| 58 | Burns, Dewayne | R | N | R 55.7 |
| 59 | Sheffield, J.D. | R | N | R 56.0 |
| 60 | Keffer, Jim | R | Y | R 65.7 |
| 61 | King, Phil | R | N | R 64.6 |
| 62 | Phillips, Larry | R | N | R 49.5 |
| 63 | Parker, Tan | R | N | R 48.5 |
| 64 | Crownover, Myra | R | Y | R 23.7 |
| 65 | Simmons, Ron | R | N | R 21.7 |
| 66 | Shaheen, Matt | R | N | R 27.0 |
| 67 | Leach, Jeff | R | N | R 26.7 |
| 68 | Springer, Drew | R | N | R 61.8 |
| 69 | Frank, James | R | N | R 51.4 |
| 70 | Sanford, Scott | R | N | R 43.1 |
| 71 | King, Susan | R | Y | R 56.2 |
| 72 | Darby, Drew | R | N | R 55.7 |
| 73 | Miller, Doug | R | N | R 58.9 |
| 74 | Nevárez, Alfonso "Poncho" | D | N | D 11.2 |
| 75 | González, Mary | D | N | D 39.4 |
| 76 | Blanco, César | D | N | D 50.3 |
| 77 | Marquez, Marisa | D | Y | D 24.9 |
| 78 | Moody, Joe | D | N | D 03.1 |
| 79 | Pickett, Joe | D | N | D 24.0 |
| 80 | King, Tracy | D | N | D 30.4 |
| 81 | Landgraf, Brooks | R | N | R 55.4 |
| 82 | Craddick, Tom | R | N | R 64.4 |
| 83 | Burrows, Dustin | R | N | R 60.0 |
| 84 | Frullo, John | R | N | R 35.9 |
| 85 | Stephenson, Phil | R | N | R 26.8 |
| 86 | Smithee, John | R | N | R 68.4 |
| 87 | Price, Four | R | N | R 58.0 |
| 88 | King, Ken | R | N | R 65.2 |
| 89 | Laubenberg, Jodie | R | N | R 37.5 |
| 90 | Romero Jr., Ramon | D | N | D 46.5 |
| 91 | Klick, Stephanie | R | N | R 38.4 |
| 92 | Stickland, Jonathan | R | N | R 26.8 |
| 93 | Krause, Matt | R | N | R 24.5 |
| 94 | Tinderholt, Tony | R | N | R 24.3 |
| 95 | Collier, Nicole | D | N | D 51.1 |
| 96 | Zedler, Bill | R | N | R 18.1 |
| 97 | Goldman, Craig | R | N | R 21.5 |
| 98 | Capriglione, Giovanni | R | N | R 52.6 |
| 99 | Geren, Charlie | R | N | R 37.4 |
| 100 | Johnson, Eric | D | N | D 51.9 |
| 101 | Turner, Chris | D | N | D 26.5 |
| 102 | Koop, Linda | R | N | R 12.7 |
| 103 | Anchia, Rafael | D | N | D 38.8 |
| 104 | Alonzo, Roberto | D | N | D 40.9 |
| 105 | Anderson, Rodney | R | N | R 10.6 |
| 106 | Fallon, Pat | R | N | R 39.3 |
| 107 | Sheets, Kenneth | R | N | R 8.3 |
| 108 | Meyer, Morgan | R | N | R 21.1 |
| 109 | Giddings, Helen | D | N | D 61.8 |
| 110 | Rose, Toni | D | N | D 75.2 |
| 111 | Davis, Yvonne | D | N | D 52.0 |
| 112 | Button, Angie Chen | R | N | R 17.1 |
| 113 | Burkett, Cindy | R | N | R 10.4 |
| 114 | Villalba, Jason | R | N | R 15.6 |
| 115 | Rinaldi, Matt | R | N | R 17.5 |
| 116 | Martinez Fischer, Trey | D | N | D 19.7 |
| 117 | Galindo, Rick | D | N | R 00.9 |
| 118 | Farias, Joe | D | Y | D 09.4 |
| 119 | Gutierrez, Roland | D | N | D 18.0 |
| 120 | McClendon, Ruth Jones | D | Y | D 24.2 |
| 121 | Straus, Joe | R | N | R 26.0 |
| 122 | Larson, Lyle | R | N | R 39.5 |
| 123 | Bernal, Diego | D | N | D 21.8 |
| 124 | Minjares, Ina | D | N | D 18.3 |
| 125 | Rodriguez, Justin | D | N | D 15.4 |
| 126 | Harless, Patricia | R | Y | R 30.8 |
| 127 | Huberty, Dan | R | N | R 41.6 |
| 128 | Smith, Wayne | R | N | R 47.6 |
| 129 | Paul, Dennis | R | N | R 32.5 |
| 130 | Fletcher, Allen | R | Y | R 55.3 |
| 131 | Allen, Alma | D | N | D 65.3 |
| 132 | Schofield, Mike | R | N | R 25.1 |
| 133 | Murphy, Jim | R | N | R 41.7 |
| 134 | Davis, Sarah | R | N | R 14.5 |
| 135 | Elkins, Gary | R | N | R 23.5 |
| 136 | Dale, Tony | R | N | R 13.5 |
| 137 | Wu, Gene | D | N | D 18.3 |
| 138 | Bohac, Dwayne | R | N | R 25.3 |
| 139 | Turner, Sylvester | D | Y | D 48.8 |
| 140 | Walle, Armando | D | N | D 37.4 |
| 141 | Thompson, Senfronia | D | N | D 72.9 |
| 142 | Dutton Jr., Harold | D | N | D 53.5 |
| 143 | Hernandez Luna, Ana | D | N | D 32.8 |
| 144 | Peña, Gilbert | D | N | R 00.8 |
| 145 | Alvarado, Carol | D | N | D 17.7 |
| 146 | Miles, Borris | D | N | D 55.3 |
| 147 | Coleman, Garnet | D | N | D 57.2 |
| 148 | Farrar, Jessica Cristina | D | N | D 14.0 |
| 149 | Vo, Hubert | D | N | D 10.3 |
| 150 | Riddle, Debbie | R | N | R 41.5 |
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