Budget Writers Worry About the Numbers
The people in government who look at spreadsheets — so the rest of us don't have to — are getting nervous about the state's finances.
Sales tax revenues have taken double-digit dives for five months running; in each of those months, the state's income from those taxes has been more than 10 percent lower than in the same month the year before. In a state where a steady rise in sales tax money has become almost a rule, the intake for the last 12 months is down more than 5 percent. And budgeteers assumed not only that they'd ...
Comments (6)
WUSRPH
Sorry, Ross, but as an old Bullock-ex I must point out that, contrary to popular belief, THERE IS NO CONSTITUTIONAL REQUIREMENT THAT TEXAS HAVE A BALANCED BUDGET! The State has run a deficit on a number of occasions, most recently in the late 80s, and may well run one again, even perhaps for the current biennium. The Constitution DOES NOT REQUIRE that the books must balance at the and of the biennium, ONLY that the Comptroller of Public Accounts must certify AT THE TIME THE BUDGET IS ADOPTED that there will be sufficient General Revenue Funds to pay all the GR appropriations called for by that budget. And, even then, if the Comptroller refuses to certify the bill, the Legislature can override him/her by a four-fifths vote and, in effect, pass an UNBALANCED BUDGET. If this budget looks like it is going to wind up out of balance, presumably the first task of the Legislature when it meets in Regular Session in January of 2011 would be to pass an act or acts to fund the difference. However, the Legislature might be able to put off taking any really major steps until as late as 2013. This is because since there are eight months left in the biennium when the Legislature goes into Regular Session, it will not officially know whether the current biennium will end up with a deficit until 3 months after the Regular Session ends. (The current biennium does not end until Aug. 31, 2011. The Regular Session will end at the first of June of 2011.), Isn't "smoke and mirrors" budgeting wonderful?
Ross Ramsey
You're right.
In fact, more than 20 percent of the stimulus money that came from the federal government this year was used on the "supplemental bill" — in other words, it was used in the budget that had been put to bed two years earlier. But budgets do have to balance at the end of a session, unless the Legislature has that 4/5ths super-majority.
dlavine
According to the House Research Organization, "The state may end a fiscal biennium with an unanticipated deficit, but it must eliminate the deficit in the subsequent budget. There must be sufficient revenue for the upcoming biennium to cover both spending in the general appropriations bill and any deficit left over from the previous biennium (see Attorney General Opinion JM-666, April 1, 1987)." http://www.hro.house.state.tx.us/focus/writing81.pdf
Is that the same as "budgets do have to balance at the end of a session"?
Hobby
The biennial revenue estimate could be improved by deducting statutory obligations coming due in the biennium. The resulting figure would be the state's "disposable income".
Examples:
*Employee retirement benefits. ERS and TRS know about how many people will start drawing their pensions and medical benefits during the biennium.
* Texas Tomorrow Fund. Avoid the recent Comptroller's fiasco of trying to void the state's contracts concerning college tuition. Imagine the costs of the law suits had common sense not finally prevailed.
WUSRPH
One step that would help stop "smoke and mirrors" budgeting would be to change the state from a "cash accounting" system to an "accrual" system.
As it is now, the State can deliberately run up bills in one biennium (such as the state payroll) but move their payment into the next biennium by such a simple thing as moving the actual pay date from the end of the month for which the pay was earned to the first of the next month. The result is to move the cost the paying of more than $200 million in accrued costs over to the next biennium. This allows us to say that the cost of the first biennium was $200 million plus less than it actually was.
We did just that a number of years ago--something of which I am ashamed to say that I may have played a minor role in as I wrote one of the earliest memos outlining the "benefits" of doing this (Frank Battle, now on Dewhurst's staff, generated the numbers for me).
We also do this with a number of other expenditures, including payments to schools, etc.
The overall result is that, while we claim the budget was "balanced", the actual revenues can be many hundreds of dollars less than the actual incurred costs.
However, I have little hope that this will ever be done. After all, why would the Leg. freely give up one of the best "smoke and mirrors" budgeting tools it has?
voteforamerica
Mr. politician, not all Texans are stupid, you can not BS the people any more. It was a time in this State, that the Texas people was the most productive in this country, proud of being self sufficient and the biggest exporters that supply foreign countries with goods and service.
What politicians of this United States and Texas , must understand is that the government do not produce any jobs or any thing; they take from the people in the form of taxation and diminish someone else's right to what he has earned. Socialism, Marxism and communism do not work; the people of Texas do not want any more taxes. Mr. politician , the Texas people is fed up, it will not take it any more. We can not continue paying for the education and the welfare of illegal aliens, we must stop the invasion and the informal business and employment of illegal aliens that do not pay any taxes. we have in our State people that live in Mexico using the address of relatives in the state to commit fraud by using the food stamps, our schools and social service intended for Americans residents of our State. corruption is rampant and not one have the cojones to stop it because they are afraid of the corrupt Hispanics of Mexican decent that push for this welfare state. Today we have thousands of Mexicans illegal aliens in our schools getting free education at the expenses of the Texans taxpayers. Rick Perry and the Hispanic politicians are the promoters of this invasion, we all know Perry's famous words "enforcing immigration laws is the job of the Federal Government, not of the State of Texas", this coward is a politician not a true representative of the people, now he is asking for more taxes while he is forcing the Texas people to pay for the illegal aliens education and welfare. Most Mexicans families cost the state over $50,000 per year just in education, the cost of educating each student cost $12,000 per year most of the illegal families have 3 to 4 child, do any one up there knows any illegal alien that pay $36,000 or $40,000 taxes per year?. Texas politicians must stand for the Texas people not the foreign illegal aliens, we elected them to work for as, if they do not have the cojones to do their job they should get out. I paid every year over $10,000 in property tax, and enough is enough, no more taxes do your job and pass the E-verified bill we do not need any MF traitors in Austin.
Francisco Canales.